Tag Archives: shows
Buy to let property investors in UK still positive post Brexit
Confidence in the lending environment remains unchanged for buy to let property investors in the UK after the historic vote to leave the European Union, according to new research. The survey, which explores the views of property professionals in the wake of the UK’s decision to leave the EU, reveals that some 57% of property investors are feeling very confident or fairly confident about the lending environment over the next six months, compared to 59% in January 2016, the latest survey of property professionals from Shawbrook Bank shows. It says that this confidence is reflected in the proportion of investors looking to buy an additional buy to let over the next year at 58% compared with 56% in January 2016, and suggests Brexit has not had an immediate impact on people’s future investment plans and their attitudes towards buy to let investing. However, while Brexit may not have de-railed investor plans, it is still cited as the biggest challenge this group will face over the next year, according to 32% of investors. While 44% remain unsure of what impact Brexit will have and how the subsequent changes to property prices and market competition will impact them, 42% think the result will negatively impact property investors. Only 14% believe the result will have positive implications. Similarly, property investors are feeling a lot less confident about the prospect for the UK economy with 48% of investors fairly concerned or very concerned about the economic outlook, an increase of 19% from six months ago. Some 54% of investors are more negative in their outlook and believe that falling house prices would be the main negative consequence while 23% think it will be decreased competition. In contrast, 37% of those that predict positive outcomes see decreased competition in the market due to uncertainty as the main positive consequence, 24% cited less regulation and red tape while 20% said falling house prices. Property prices are one area which property investors expect to see significant changes over the next six to 12 months. In January 2016 some 67% of property investors predicted a small increase in property values and 6% predicted a small decrease. The latest figures reveal that 42% are anticipating a small decrease in prices and only 21% are predicting a small increase over the next 12 months. ‘As a lender, it is encouraging to see sustained confidence in the lending market since the beginning of the year at a time when the sector has seen a great deal of change,’ said Stephen Johnson, deputy chief executive officer and managing director of property finance at Shawbrook Bank. ‘Seeing this optimism reflected in investors’ plans to acquire new buy to let properties is a promising sign that the specialist market shows no signs of slowing despite uncertainty. At Shawbrook, we have not yet seen any real change in customer behaviour and there is still a great deal of activity across the commercial business,’ he explained. ‘While the aftermath of… Continue reading
No signs yet of Brexit creating a UK housing recession says new analysis
Since the European Union Referendum the number of residential properties advertised for sale in the UK has increased and average asking prices have reduced by 0.2%, new research shows. While the number of properties with a reduced asking price has increased from 29.3% to 34.5%, mortgage availability remains broadly unchanged, according to the analysis report from global investment banking firm. The early conclusion from the industry note from the firm’s UK Building and Residential Services team of analysts is that UK households have the confidence to try and move house and accept that prices may need to soften to make it happen since the decision to leave the EU while there is no sign of a property recession. The research says that listings volumes, for example, do not suggest a slowdown and an analysis of residential property listings on major UK property portals and have found that since the EU referendum the number of listings has increased by 3.6%. It also points out that in the two previous UK recessions housing transactions were, with hindsight, a lead indicator, falling for more than 18 months ahead of the recession. In the absence of current transaction data we view listings activity as an early look towards housing transactions. With listings increasing, it appears UK households are prepared and ready to move. Before the vote there were headlines suggesting that Brexit would result in a steep fall in house prices but according to the analysis the trend in asking prices is only just downwards. On average asking prices have reduced by 0.2% since the EU referendum, somewhat less than the movement in the prices of the shares of the companies which service the UK housing market. ‘Perhaps more interesting is the movement in the number of properties which have reduced their asking prices. Before the EU referendum 29.3% of listings had reduced their initial asking price, this figure has now increased to 34.5%, overall a move of 520bp or 18%. This suggests to us that UK households remain keen to move and are adjusting their price expectations,’ the report explains. In the two previous recessions London house prices were the first to fall and the first to rise but the research show that so far 76% of London postcodes have seen an increase of listings, 22% a reduction and 1% unchanged. With respect to asking prices 70% of London postcodes have seen a reduction in asking prices and 30% an increase. A breakdown of the figures show that in East London 35% of postcodes have seen asking prices rise and 65% fall, in the North of the city 30% have risen and 70% fallen, in South London the split is 27% up and 73% down and in West London 25% up and 75% down. ‘London has the largest rental market in the UK and we believe that asking rents provide the most cutting edge data point with respect to the health of the underlying… Continue reading
Home mover market in UK hits nine year high
The number of home movers in the UK increased by 9% in the first six months of 2016 compared with the same period in 2015, according to the latest research. Some 174,700 people moved up the housing ladder in the first half of the year even although rising house prices mean home movers need a higher level of deposit for their next property, the report from Lloyds Bank reveals. It means that the number of home movers has reached its highest level since 2008 when it was 179,800 over the same six month period. Since hitting a market low of 117,900 in the first half of 2009 the number of buyers moving along the housing ladder has grown by 48%. However, the report points out that the current number of home movers is still at around half the pre-crisis level of 327,600 recorded in the first half of 2007. Housing affordability for second steppers stood at 6.5 times gross annual average earnings in June 2016. On this measure, affordability has improved over the past five years from 7.3 in 2011. The research also shows that most regions of the UK have seen an improvement in Second Stepper affordability since 2011. The largest improvement was in Northern Ireland where this ratio has fallen from 6.2 in 2011 to 4.9 in 2016, followed by the North down from 7.2 to six and Scotland down from 6.6 to 5.6. In contrast, affordability has deteriorated in London from 9.7 to 10.9 and the South East from 8.7 to 9.4. Whilst a mortgage term of 25 years has been the norm for some time, many home movers are increasingly taking out mortgages where payments are spread over a longer period. In the first half of 2011 the proportion of home movers taking up a 25 to 35 year mortgage stood at an average of 9%. The research reveals that for the same period in 2016 this figure had doubled to almost one in five or 18%. Over the same period, the share of mortgages with a 20 to 25 year term dropped from 36% to 29%. Over the past five years, the average price paid by home movers has grown by 38% from £206,997 in 2011, to £261,550 in June 2016, an increase of £78,609, equivalent to a monthly increase of £1,310. In London the average home mover price has grown by 55% since June 2011 to £540,440, the largest increase in the UK. The capital is followed by the South East where home movers now pay on average, £382,324 an increase of 45% in the past five years. By contrast, the average home mover price in Northern Ireland has edged up over the same period by just 2% from £156,764 to £159,326. In the past year the average home mover price has grown by 9% or £24,056 to £285,606. The average deposit put down by a home mover has increased by 32% in the… Continue reading
