Tag Archives: real-estate
Scottish property prices bounce back after dip due to referendum vote
After a cooling in the market due to the referendum vote on independence, house prices in Scotland have now recovered, according to the latest index figures. Scottish property prices increased by 0.7% in October, taking the average house price to £164,798, just £717 below the pre-recession peak in May 2008. The LSL Property Services/Acadata house price index also shows that on an annual basis prices are up 5.7% and sales of million pound properties in particular have increased since the referendum. The biggest annual rise was in East Renfrewshire with price growth of 13.4%. But growth is not universal with annual price growth down 9.4% in the Scottish Borders and down 6.7% in South Ayrshire. On a month on month basis prices increased by 5.8% in East Dunbartonshire and by 3.4% in Fife but fell by 1.7% in East Lothian and by 1.8% in South Ayrshire. Even in Aberdeen, which has seen some of the highest price growth in Scotland, prices dipped by 0.5% in October. ‘After a run of monthly house price stumbles on the way to the landmark referendum, the Scottish property market has recuperated. Growth regained ground during October, and property values bounced back,’ said Christine Campbell, regional managing director of Your Move. She pointed out that this has returned overall annual growth in Scottish house prices to 5.7%, typically amounting to £8,850, over the past year, and property values in Scotland are making faster progress than across the North of England and Wales. ‘Since the independence question evaporated, a new ray of confidence and certainty is radiating through the market, as normality is resumed. The feel good factor is especially pronounced at the highest tiers of the property market, where political uncertainty froze activity most acutely,’ she explained. Indeed, sales of properties worth £1 million or above have more than doubled from September to October as high end homes began to change hands again. In fact, October 2014 saw the biggest number of million pound properties sold in a single month since September 2008. Campbell also pointed out that only three quarters of the country has seen price growth in the past 12 months and in the remaining areas, property values are below 2013 levels. ‘In these places, activity is vital to keep price growth sailing along, but house sales have slipped back 1% since September,’ she said. While overall, Scottish property sales in 2014 up to October are 14% higher than the same 10 months in 2013, this still only represents 65% of the average volume reached in the pre-recession period of 2004 to 2007. ‘The Chancellor’s revamp of stamp duty should go some way to shore up demand in the short-term, and set off more movement at the lower end of the property chain. But first time buyers have been the guiding light of the Scottish housing recovery, accounting for 46% of current sales in the property market,’ said Campbell. ‘For the bulk of… Continue reading
Consumer confidence in UK property price growth falling
Consumer confidence in the outlook for UK house prices has continued to fall from its peak in July 2014, according to the latest Halifax Housing Market Confidence Tracker. While the overall picture for house prices over the next 12 months is still robust, it has dropped to its lowest level since June 2013. With Halifax forecasting an easing of house price growth to 3% to 5% for 2015, the report shows there has been a reversal of recent momentum, with a higher proportion of consumers now believing the next 12 months will be a better time to buy than to sell and the proportion thinking the next year will be a good time to sell falling to its lowest level since the fourth quarter of 2013. Despite recent forecasts indicating economic growth is expected to reach 3% in 2015, the recent fall in house price expectations mirrors a relative fall in consumer confidence for the economic outlook in the next year having peaked in the second quarter of 2014. Of those surveyed, a net balance of +25 now believe the next 12 months will be a good time to buy, an increase of 14 points since September 2014. Sentiment towards buying is stronger among those who already own their own home, with 62% of owner occupiers stating 2015 will be a good time to buy, compared to 29% who think it will be a bad time, a net balance of +33. In contrast, selling sentiment has fallen to a net balance of +14, a drop of five points since September 2014. And positive selling sentiment fell by six points among owner occupiers between September and November 2014 to +25. ‘The strengthening in the UK economy over the past couple of years has seen a steady convergence between the proportions of people who believe it is a good time to buy and a good time to sell,’ said Craig McKinlay, mortgages director at the Halifax. ‘The outlook for house prices in 2015 is for growth to moderate but continue to increase, which perhaps explains why the proportion thinking it will be a good time to buy is again greater than the proportion thinking it will be a good time to sell,’ he explained. ‘With an interest rate rise expected late 2015, possibly into early 2016 it will be interesting to see what impact the slight reduction in affordability has here,’ he added. The survey also shows that people in Scotland are significantly more likely than those in other regions overall to say 2015 will be a good time to buy at 65% compared to 56%, respectively. Conversely, almost half of those surveyed in the Midlands, 48%, think next year will be a good time to buy, significantly lower than the 56% who say this across Britain. People in Scotland and North England are significantly less likely to say it will be a good time to sell at 38% and 42% compared to 51%, respectively. And people… Continue reading
UK asking prices down apart from in Scotland, latest index shows
Asking prices have fallen across the UK apart from Scotland, month on month, according to the latest data from the Home.co.uk index, but are expected to growth by 7% in 2015. Prices fell 0.7% overall in England and Wales during the last month and that means annual growth dropped to 7.6% while Scotland saw asking prices go up by 0.3%. Looking at annual asking price growth, most of it was in London and the South. Indeed, Greater London experienced growth of 15.9% over the last 12 months. The data also shows that supply in the capital region has risen considerably since last year, up by 39%, and according to Doug Shephard, the firm’s director this will serve to attenuate price rises in 2015. ‘Looking ahead, we anticipate that 2015 will be a more consistent year for UK property prices than 2014,’ he said but pointed out that with the prime central London market showing signs of slowing down average prices are likely to rise less quickly next year. ‘Record low mortgage rates will stoke demand whilst record prices in London and the South East will encourage more potential vendors to cash in. Hence, both supply and demand is expected to rise, thereby increasing the volume of the sales market towards more normal levels,’ he explained. Prices are predicted to rise 7% overall in 2015 and most pronounced in the South, especially the South East and East Anglia, although the northern markets will continue to improve, albeit slowly. The report also suggests that price rises will be less pronounced in London than they were in 2014, rising by around 10% and the supply of property for sale will increase by around 25% over the course of 2015. ‘East Anglia and the South East look set to be the leading regional markets next year owing to their much improved marketing times. Supply of property for sale remains low historically in these regions and this will keep prices on an upward trajectory, although we do anticipate market volume to steadily increase over the course of 2015,’ said Shephard. ‘The East Midlands also looks primed for a good year ahead. We expect above average price growth and lower marketing times in 2015. Looking further afield, the North of England property market, hampered by employment problems and austerity measures, will continue to improve slowly, as will Wales,’ he pointed out. ‘Across in the South West and West Midlands, further market improvements are to be expected, but growth there is likely to be slightly lower than the national average,’ he added. However he also pointed out that these predictions are based on there being no change in interest rates. ‘Should there be even a small rise in the Bank of England base rate, market sentiment would be severely dampened. A more dramatic hike of 1% would likely bring down price growth to zero for 2015,’ he concluded. Continue reading
