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Number of people moving home in UK falls in first half of 2015
The number of home movers in the UK in the first six months of 2015 was 9% lower than in the same period in 2014, new research has found. Despite this decline, the number of movers in the first half of 2015 was 32% higher than in the same period in 2009 at the depth of the housing market recession, according to the latest Lloyds Bank home movers review. It explains that the rise in house prices over the past few years has boosted home owners’ equity in their current homes making it easier for them to fund a deposit towards the purchase of their next property. Notwithstanding the improvement since 2009, the number of home movers in the first half of this year was less than half the total in the first six months of 2007 when it was 327,600. The research also shows that the percentage decline in the number of home movers between the first halves of 2014 and 2015 was closely in line with the 10% fall in first time buyers. First time buyer numbers have, however, risen significantly more quickly than home movers over the last few years. As a result, home movers have declined as a proportion of all new mortgage financed home purchasers from 72% in 2004 to 54% in 2015. ‘There was a modest decline in the number of home movers in the first half of the year compared with 2014, which was in line with the general softening in housing market activity,’ said Andrew Mason, Lloyds Bank mortgages director. ‘Whilst the number of home movers has risen significantly since 2009, it remains well below previous levels and has recovered less strongly than first time buyer numbers. This is likely to partly reflect the high costs associated with moving home, as well as highlighting the difficulties that homeowners can face in finding somewhere suitable to move to due to the shortage of properties available for sale,’ he added. The figures show that the average price paid by a home mover has grown by 25% over the past five years from £208,654 in 2010 to £261,524 in 2015, an increase of £52,869, equivalent to a monthly rise of £881. Home mover property prices have increased by 6%over the past year. The average deposit put down by a home mover in 2015 was £87,954, some 8% higher than in 2014 or £81,549. This equates to 34% of the average price paid by home movers of £261,524. Regionally, home movers in London put down the largest average deposit at £175,273 or 36% of the average property value of £492,882. This is more than four times the average deposit put down by home movers in Northern Ireland where it was £43,625 and the lowest. Nationally, the recent changes to the Stamp Duty system have saved the average home mover £4,769, reducing the tax bill for someone buying the average priced home mover property of £261,524 from £7,845 to… Continue reading
UK home owners should factor in interest rate rise sooner rather than later
Home owners and those thinking of buying a home should budget for an interest rate rise after the Bank of England indicated that it expects to see interest rates rise sooner rather than later. But Banks of England governor Mark Carney refused to be drawn on whether this would be before the end of the year and indicated that it will depend on factors such as the state of the euro and what happens in Greece. Interest rates in the UK have been at a record low of 0.5% since March 2009 but Carney said that the time for an increase is ‘drawing closer’. He said that the decision would be determined by looking at economic data including wage growth, productivity and import figures. He also said that the increases, when they came, would be gradual and limited to a level below past averages and line with his previous forecasts of how rates will change. Experts are divided as to when the rise might happen. Andrew Burrell, head of forecasting at JLL, believes it is unlikely that rates will rise before the first quarter of next year. ‘Despite wage rises and a recovering UK, a muted inflation forecast and global economic headwinds mean that interest rates are likely to stay the same for a couple more quarters,’ he said. Barry Naisbitt, chief economist of Santander UK, also believes that economic uncertainties still exist to prevent an immediate rate rise and John McNeill, co-manager of the Kames Absolute Return Bond Global Fund, thinks it will not happen until 2016. Property buyers need to recognise that rates will move sooner rather than later, according to Nicholas Leeming, chairman of agents Jackson-Stops & Staff. ‘The decision to maintain interest rates at the current, historically low levels comes as no surprise. However Mark Carney has been careful to flag that interest rates will edge higher in the longer term as the economy continues to grow and inflationary pressure on wages increase,’ he said. ‘Property buyers should recognise that rates will move towards more sustainable, long term levels and so budget for higher mortgage costs accordingly. Vendors should be aware that any such increases will create resistance to overly high guide prices,’ he added. Steve Bolton, founder of Platinum Property Partners, pointed out that the UK housing market as a whole has enjoyed six years of historically low interest rates. He believes that those who have invested in buy to let property over this period have also benefitted from high levels of demand for private rental accommodation across the country. ‘This has meant that the return on investment for buy to let has been strong, with many investors also seeing an impressive growth in the value of their properties. But the announcement that the base rate could start to rise soon has implications for the housing market,’ he said. ‘On the one hand, more expensive mortgage rates will possibly put a dampener on demand for borrowing, but on… Continue reading
US home prices up 6.5% year on year, latest index shows
Home prices across the United States, including distressed sales, increased by 6.5% in June 2015 compared with the same month in 2014, according to the latest index. It is the 40th month in a row of year on year price increases and values were also up month on month with growth of 1.7% in June compared to May, the CoreLogic home price index also shows. Excluding distressed sales, home prices increased by 6.4% in June 2015 compared with June 2014 and increased by 1.4% month on month with only Massachusetts (-1.5 percent) and Louisiana with an annual price fall of 1.5% and 0.1% respectively. Including distressed sales, that is short sales and real estate owned sales (REO), some 35 states were at or within 10% of their peak prices in June 2015 and 15 reached new price peaks. The firm’s latest house price forecast indicates that home prices, including distressed sales, are projected to increase by 0.6% month on month from June 2015 to July 2015 and by 4.5% on a year on year basis from June 2015 to June 2016. Excluding distressed sales, home prices are projected to increase by 0.5% month on month from June 2015 to July 2015 and by 4.2% year on year from June 2015 to June 2016. The index report also shows across the country there was 4.8 months supply but the measure varied greatly across cities. In San Jose and Denver, there was only 1.6 months’ supply of homes on the market, whereas Philadelphia had a seven months’ supply and Providence had a 6.6 months’ supply. Frank Nothaft, chief economist for CoreLogic, explained that the stronger appreciation was registered in cities with limited inventory and strong homebuyer activity, such as San Jose and Denver. According to Anand Nallathambi, president and chief executive officer of CoreLogic pent-up buying demand and affordability, together with higher consumer confidence buoyed by a more robust labour market, are a potent mix fuelling the 6.5% jump in home prices with more increases likely to come. Including distressed sales, the five states with the highest home price appreciation were Colorado with growth of 9.8%, Washington up 8.9%, New York up 8.3%, South Carolina up 8% and Nevada also up 8%. Excluding distressed sales, the five states with the highest home price appreciation were Colorado up 9.3%, New York up 8.5%, Washington up 8.3%, Oregon up 8.2% and Nevada up 7.9%. Including distressed sales, only four states experienced home price depreciation with the biggest fall of 5% in Massachusetts, while Connecticut was down 0.6%, Louisiana down 0.4% and Mississippi with a fall of 0.3. The five states with the largest peak to current declines, including distressed transactions, were Nevada with a fall of 32.2%, Florida at 28.7%, Rhode Island at 26.5%, Arizona at 25.8% and Maryland down 21.2%. Of the top 100 Core Based Statistical Areas (CBSAs) measured by population, some 93 showed year on year increases while seven showed year on year declines… Continue reading
