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London property sales over £1 million down 26% in second quarter
London saw a 26% drop in the number of properties sold above the £1 million level year on year in the second quarter of 2015 with the economic slowdown in China regarded as having an impact, a new report says. The situation in China is having a knock on effect on global equities and other buyers are still holding back since the stamp duty increase towards the end of last year, according to Richard Barber, director at agents W.A. Ellis. 'This could be perceived as good news for buyers, signalling a return to normality in the market due to more realistic pricing strategies. Such strategies will play a significant role for vendors looking to secure a prospective buyer this autumn,' he said. 'Discerning purchasers continue to take stock of last year’s increases to stamp duty and the ongoing strength of Sterling. After one of the most tumultuous weeks on record for the world’s financial markets, there is naturally considerable speculation regarding the real estate manifestations of the economic slowdown in China and knock-on negative impact for global equities,' he explained. 'In short, this will depend on the depth and duration of the nervousness that investors are now displaying and whether this becomes a protracted slowdown in investment activity,' he added. He pointed out that UK real estate is one area that traditionally experiences countervailing investment activity, with perceived defensive characteristics against weaker investment alternatives. 'International investment in London commercial property is currently running at around 60% of all Grade A space and this flow will remain strong well into 2016. Residential investment is also likely to experience continued support from international investors, with bricks and mortar investment often being compared with gold for its defensive investment characteristics,' said Barber. He also explained that there are exceptions to this trend, notably from economies experiencing a more severe currency devaluation and Russia, China, and Malaysia are all likely to fall into this category and investment flows from these countries may moderate through the remainder of 2015. In contrast, weak equity and real estate investment alternatives from the largest traditional residential investors, Hong Kong and Singapore, could possibly drive improvements from these countries. The report says that new build residential in London continues to perform well, notably in areas such as Nine Elms and East London, including Canary Wharf, where public transport and infrastructure improvements are driving seismic changes to the underlying real estate value. However, Barber concludes that prime London pricing has been relatively weak for the past 12 months. 'It may well be time that investors begin to again see value in these traditionally favoured locations during times of perceived uncertainty,' he said. According to Tom Middleditch, director at JLL Kensington, the prime lettings market has undergone an important shift in the second quarter of 2015 as pre-election weakness affected both sales and lettings but this was reversed with the Conservative party win. 'Although transactions were not quite at the euphoric levels that some agents reported in the… Continue reading
Sydney again leads home value growth in Australian capital cities
Property values in Australian capital cities increased 0.3% in August with Sydney seeing the highest growth at 1.1% compared with the previous month. The latest home value index from CoreLogic RP Data also shows that there were considerable variations in the performance of the housing market from city to city. Values increased by 0/7% in Adelaide and by 0.3% in Darwin but flat month on month in Melbourne and Brisbane. The remaining capital cities recorded a month on month fall in values. While the August results indicate a slowdown in the rate of appreciation in dwelling values, the quarterly figures highlight just how strong the housing market has been over the past three months with combined capital city dwelling values 5.3% higher over the three months to the end of August. Values across Melbourne were 8% higher over the rolling quarter, and Sydney values were up 7.4%. CoreLogic RP Data head of research, Tim Lawless, said that both cities have seen dwelling values trend substantially higher than other capitals, where the third highest growth rate over the three month period was Brisbane, which showed an increase in values of 2.2% While the three largest capital cities, together with Hobart, have all recorded growth in dwelling values over the past three months, half the nation’s capital cities have recorded a fall in values. Darwin recorded the most substantial decline in values with a fall of 3.2% over the three month period, while Perth values were down by 1.5%, Canberra values were 0.8% lower and Adelaide values lower by 0.1%. With the lower month on month growth rate, the annual rate of appreciation also slipped to 10.2% per annum, from 11.1% last month. According to Lawless, the annual rate of growth highlights how strong Sydney housing market conditions have been. Sydney dwelling values are 17.6% over the past year, and since the beginning of 2009, Australia’s largest capital city housing market has recorded a cumulative capital gain of 76%. Using the median house price from January 2009 as a base, the typical Sydney home owner has seen the value of their home increase by approximately $309,000 since the beginning of 2009. The only cities where dwelling values declined over the past 12 months have been Darwin with a fall of 4.6%, Perth down 1.8% and Canberra down 0.9%. ‘Darwin and Perth have certainly felt the brunt of the downturn in resources investment while conditions in Canberra have been improving but remain volatile. We expect the softer housing market conditions in Perth and Darwin are likely to persist over the coming year,’ Lawless explained. Unit values have recently shown a higher rate of growth city house and unit values than detached houses, with values rising 0.8% over the month compared with a 0.3% rise in house values. The rolling quarterly rate of growth was also higher for units at 6.7% compared with 5.1% across the detached sector. Lawless pointed out that it has generally been the case throughout… Continue reading
Prime London rental market affected by financial market jitters, says new report
Annual rental value growth in the prime central London property market fell to 2.5% in August as demand remained subdued over, probably due to financial market jitters, a new report suggests. The analysis from international real estate firm says that as a significant proportion of tenant demand in prime central London derives from companies, in particular financial services, it should be no surprise that volatile global stock markets continued to affect sentiment in August. Rental values rose 0.1% from July, however quarterly growth was 0.2%, the lowest three month change since April 2014. Prime gross rental yields edged back up to 2.96% from 2.95% in July. Tom Bill, head of London residential research at Knight Frank, pointed out that there is a correlation between rental values in prime central London and the performance of the FTSE 100 and the recent stock market dip has been due to concerns over the state of the Chinese economy, with weak manufacturing data and the recent devaluation of the Yuan increasing nerves. ‘Despite the recent volatility, the devaluation should be seen in its historical context and China has several levers it can pull in an attempt to calm stock market falls that aren’t necessarily a reflection of its underlying economic health. The result is more subdued corporate activity and fewer relocation agents currently active in prime central London,’ he explained. He also pointed out that new tenancies in recent weeks have been UK based families that are moving from one neighbourhood of London to another. In the three months to July this year, the number of new applicants fell by 15% compared to the same period in 2014, while viewing levels were down 12.6% and the number of tenancies agreed declined by 12.1%. Meanwhile, the rentals market is still affected by distortions in the sales market following the general election, Bill also pointed out. ‘Some vendors have delayed selling and are exploring the rental option as they wait for stronger house price growth to return after a stamp duty increase in December for properties worth more than £1.1 million dampened growth,’ he said. ‘The result is more rental stock on the market, which has led to prospective tenants making offers on multiple properties, meaning deals are harder to finalise,’ he added. Continue reading
