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Not enough new homes are being built in many metro areas in the US
Despite positive improvements in the labour market in recent years, new home construction is currently insufficient in a majority of metro areas in the United States, new research has found. The situation is contributing to persistent housing shortages and unhealthy price growth in many markets, according to the report from the National Association of Realtors. NAR measured the volume of new home construction relative to the number of newly employed workers in 146 metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) throughout the US to determine whether home building has kept up with the steadily improving pace of job growth in the past three years. The findings reveal that home building activity for all housing types is underperforming in roughly two thirds of measured metro areas and NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun said that low inventory has been a prevailing headwind to the housing market in recent years. 'In addition to slow housing turnover and the diminishing supply of distressed properties, lagging new home construction, especially single family, has kept available inventory far below balanced levels,' Yun explained. 'Our research shows that even as the labour market began to strengthen, home building failed to keep up and is now contributing to the stronger price appreciation and eroding affordability currently seen throughout the US,' he added. The study examined job creation in 146 metro areas from 2012 to 2014 relative to single family and multi-family housing starts over the same period. Historically, the average ratio for the annual change in total workers to total permits is 1.2 for all housing types and 1.6 for single family homes. The research found that through 2014 some 63% of measured markets had a ratio above 1.2 and 72 percent had a ratio above 1.6, which indicates inadequate new construction. According to Yun, with jobs now being added at a more robust pace in several metro areas, the disparity between housing starts and employment is widening. In 2014 alone, the average ratio of single family permits to employment jumped to 3.7, while the ratio for total permits increased 50 percent to 2.4. 'Affordability issues for buying and renting because of low supply are already well known in many of the country’s largest metro areas, including San Francisco, San Diego and New York. Additionally, our study found that limited construction is a widespread issue in metro areas of all sizes,' Yun pointed out. The markets with the largest disparity of jobs versus home construction, single family, and currently facing supply shortages are San Jose, California, at 22.6, San Francisco at 22.4, San Diego and New York, both at 13.9 and Miami at 11.1. Yun explained that while construction is limited in some markets such as Trenton–Ewing in New Jersey and Rockford, Illinois, they aren’t facing inventory shortages despite having high ratios because their job gains are more moderate. Single family housing starts are seen as nearly adequate to local job growth at a ratio of 1.6 in Jackson, Mississippi, Colorado Springs, Chattanooga in Tennessee, Amarillo, Texas, and St. Louis. Looking ahead, Yun said that there’s… Continue reading
Demand for property under £1 million in London likely to remain strong
Demand for London property priced below £2 million is set to remain strong, with the city’s population forecast to grow by more than 100,000 every year for the next decade. As house prices grow across London, it will create new markets where properties cross the £1 million threshold, according to the latest analysis report from real estate firm Knight Frank. Data from the report shows that annual growth in London's prime market fell to 1.7% in August as changes to stamp duty dampened demand and the number of £1 million plus sales were down by 21% in the year to April 2015. It also shows that annual price growth in prime outer London fell to 3% in August and annual rental value growth decreased to 2.5% in prime central London and 1.2% in prime outer London due to jitters over China and high stock levels. However, there are new areas coming into the prime market. The report explains that new £1 million London neighbourhoods include Hammersmith, Maida Vale, Queen’s Park, Muswell Hill and Vauxhall. The analysis, based on postcode districts where at least 20% of sales have been above £1 million in at least one quarter since the start of 2014, shows that these areas have seen a transformation. Hammersmith (W6) had five such quarters since 2014, making it the area that has undergone the biggest transformation in terms of £1 million plus sales. Other areas include Maida Vale (W9), Queen’s Park (NW6), East Finchley (N2) and Muswell Hill (N10). Further south, Battersea (SW11) and Vauxhall (SW8) which have consolidated their positions as £1 million markets. 'Though it has been an unsettled 12 months, the sub£2 million market has been more immune to recent political and economic events, particularly as this price bracket sat beneath the threshold for the proposed mansion tax,' said Tom Bill, head of London residential research at Knight Frank. 'This market is more closely linked to domestic UK demand and the health of the country’s economy and it is easy to forget the fact the recovery has been stronger than many predicted, underlined by strong GDP data in July,' he pointed out. 'In a further recent sign of the improving outlook, cash bonuses in the 2014/2015 financial year were up 2.7% on the previous year and just 0.1% below their record level in 2007/2008. The result is that price growth below £1 million and between £1 million and £2 million has been stronger than the average in prime central London and prime outer London,' he added. The analysis shows that properties below £1 million grew 17.5% in prime central London and 21.3% in prime outer London in the two years to August 2015, compared to the respective averages of 9.5% and 15.1%. Between £1 million and £2 million, prices grew 15.7% in prime central London and 18.5% in prime outer London over the same period. Demand has also held up better for sub £2 million properties since December’s increase in stamp duty. There were 3.6% more viewings in the… Continue reading
UK report reveals the economic benefits of new home building
House builders in the UK are providing more than just homes with a new report revealing the extent of the benefits. The report from the Home Builders Federation, says that for example, in the South East of England where there is a shortage of new homes, last year some 22,470 homes were started by private house builders, the public sector and housing associations in the sector. But this is just the tip of the iceberg. Based on the findings of the report, the economic footprint of this house building meant that 96,621 jobs were supported, 899 graduates and apprentices positions were created, and 966,210 new trees or shrubs were planted. It also shows that £36,109,290 was contributed towards education in the area, £28,896,420 in extra council tax revenue was generated plus £224,700,000 in other tax contributions, and some £21,031,920 went towards new open spaces, community spaces or sports facilities, or enhancing existing resources through Local Authorities. On top of this 5,168 new affordable homes were built and payments of £497,553,210 were made to local authorities for further provision of new affordable homes. While house building is increasingly being recognised as a key driver of economic growth, there are still not enough new homes being built in the region, the report points out. In the South East, this manifests itself as a shortfall of 12,011 homes every year. If the region was to meet this need, the knock-on economic benefits would be 51,648 jobs created, 480 graduates and apprentices positions created, 516,482 trees and shrubs planted, and £19,301,998 going towards education in the area. There would be £15,446,403 in extra council tax revenue, £120,112,000 in extra tax contributions, £11,242,483 contributed to open spaces, community, sport and leisure facilities, 2,763 affordable homes built and payments of £265,964,002 to local authorities for further provision of new affordable homes. 'House building makes a huge, but largely hidden, social and economic contribution to the South East. And whilst housing output in the region has increased, we are still not delivering anywhere near what is needed' said Stewart Baseley, executive chairman at HBF. 'As well as delivering desperately needed new homes, increasing housing supply would deliver significant additional benefits for everyone living in the region. As well as providing desperately needed new homes, increasing house building would deliver massive additional benefits to communities across the land,' he explained. 'People often don't realise that the new community centre or school or football pitch has been paid for as a direct results of new homes. Ultimately, providing new homes for people also means better facilities for the wider community. These are the very things that turn a collection of houses into communities; brand new places where people want to live,' he added. Neal Hudson, associate director at real estate firm Savills, pointed out that house prices in the South East have risen by 17.3% over the last two years. 'However, the performance of markets within a region can vary substantially. These variations are determined by the economic, demographic and affordability profile of demand… Continue reading
