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US existing home sales fall after three months of growth

Following three straight months of gains, existing home sales in the United States dipped in August despite slowing price growth and a positive turnaround in the share of sales to first time buyers. Total existing home sales, which are completed transactions that include single family homes, town homes, condominiums and co–ops, fell 4.8% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.31 million in August from a slight downward revision of 5.58 million in July. While none of the four major regions saw sales increase in August, the index report from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) says that sales have risen year on year for 11 consecutive months and are 6.2 % above a year ago. Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, explained that home sales in August lost some momentum to close out the summer. ‘Sales activity was down in many parts of the country last month, especially in the South and West, as the persistent summer theme of tight inventory levels likely deterred some buyers,’ he said. ‘The good news for the housing market is that price appreciation the last two months has started to moderate from the unhealthier rate of growth seen earlier this year,’ he added. The index also shows that the median existing home price for all housing types in August was $228,700, which is 4.7% above August 2014 when it was $218,400. The market has now seen 42 months in a row of year on year gains. The report also shows that total housing inventory at the end of August rose 1.3% to 2.29 million existing homes available for sale, but is 1.7% lower than a year ago. Unsold inventory is at a 5.2 month supply at the current sales pace, up from 4.9 months in July. ‘With sales and overall demand higher than a year ago and supply mostly unchanged, low inventories will likely continue to limit options for those looking to buy this fall even with the overall pool of buyers shrinking because of seasonal factors,’ said Yun. The percent share of first time buyers rebounded to 32% in August, up from 28% in July and matching the highest share of the year set in May. A year ago, first time buyers represented 29% of all buyers. Yun believe that when the Federal Reserve decides to lift short term rates, which is expected later this year, the impact on mortgage rates and overall housing demand will likely not be pronounced. ‘With job growth holding steady, prospective buyers can handle any gradual rise in mortgage rates, especially if today's stronger labour market finally leads to a boost in wages and homebuilding accelerates to alleviate supply shortages and slow price growth in some markets,’ he added. NAR released a study earlier this month that examined new home construction in relation to job gains. The findings revealed that home building activity is currently insufficient in a majority of metro areas and is contributing to the ongoing housing shortages and unhealthy… Continue reading

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Annual property price growth in England and Wales down to slowest for two years

The average property price in England and Wales increased 4.2% year on year and 0.5% month on month, according to the latest data from the Land Registry, the lowest annual growth for two years. This took the average property value to £184,682 with the growth led by London which had the largest monthly rise of 1.7% and annual growth of 6.6%, taking the average price to £493.026. On a regional basis the biggest annual price rise was in the East of England with growth of 8.4% and the North West saw the biggest monthly fall of 1.4%. The North West also has the lowest annual price rise of 0.2%. A breakdown of the data shows a considerable range of price movements in London. The borough with the highest annual price rise was Newham, up 15.5% while Barking and Dagenham experienced the highest monthly price increase, up 2.2%. Camden saw the largest annual fall of 1.7% and Kensington and Chelsea experienced the greatest monthly fall with average prices down 1.1%. The most up to date figures available show that the number of completed house sales in England and Wales decreased by 13% to 70,404 compared with 80,823 in June 2014 and the number of properties sold in England and Wales for over £1 million was down 1.7% to 1,031 from 1,237 a year earlier. The data also shows that repossessions in England and Wales decreased by 43% to 498 compared with 868 in June 2014 and the region with the greatest fall in the number of repossession sales was London. Rob Weaver, director of property at residential investment platform, Property Partner, believes that the stamp duty change is affecting the London market. ‘That prices in Kensington and Chelsea fell more than all other London boroughs in August underlines how the more punitive tax regime is having an impact at the higher end of the market,’ he said. He also pointed out that the North/South house price divide is still very much in evidence. ‘Annual growth in the North East and West is way off the pace compared to the South. The broader theme within the property market remains much the same, namely low transaction levels, rising prices and weak supply,’ he explained. ‘To achieve a sustainable and balanced property market, supply has to improve. To boost supply will require initiatives from all quarters, both private sector and Government. Resolving the supply crisis looks set to be the dominant narrative of the next decade and beyond,’ he added. The market in London appears to have got the ball rolling again, as buyers get used to the heavier taxation, and prices in the capital and surrounding regions are seeing a must faster pace than in the North West, North East, and Yorkshire, according to Adrian Gill, director of Your Move and Reeds Rains estate agents. He believes that while sales activity may look slightly subdued on an annual basis, transactions have actually been picking up speed solidly since… Continue reading

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Northern Ireland set to see strongest house prices growth in UK in 2015

Northern Ireland is forecast to see the highest house price growth in the UK this year, with the latest report predicting an 11% rise in house values. The region is likely to see ongoing increases in prices according to the latest residential market survey from the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) and Ulster Bank. This is based on a comparative analysis between our price indicator and data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) while for the UK as a whole the survey predicts that house prices will rise by 6%. The survey reports a net balance of 72% of Northern Ireland surveyors saying that prices increased in August, a higher net balance than all other UK region’s apart from East Anglia. Northern Ireland surveyors remain positive about the outlook too, with three month price expectations also amongst the highest in the UK. When it comes to sales, Northern Ireland surveyors are confident that increases seen in August will continue, with a net balance of 40% of respondents expecting sales levels to be higher in three months’ time. ‘A shortage of new instructions has characterised the Northern Ireland property market this year, with buyer enquiries outstripping the rate at which properties have been coming to the market,’ said RICS Northern Ireland residential property spokesman, Samuel Dickey. ‘As we move into the autumn, we should see more instructions, helping address this imbalance and ease upward pressure on prices. On the whole, RICS forecasts that average prices in Northern Ireland will have risen by 11% between the fourth quarter of 2014 and the fourth quarter of 2015,’ he explained. ‘This represents robust growth, but we should remember that this is from a low base, with average prices still someway from their 2007 peak,’ he added. The data also shows that in terms of prices, a net balance of 72% of Northern Ireland surveyors said that prices rose in the past three months. A net balance of 46% said that they expect prices to continue rising in the three months ahead. Continue reading

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