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Irish property prices dipped slightly in January but growth set to continue in 2016

Residential property prices in Ireland are up 7.6% year on year but fell by 0.5% in January, according to the latest index figures to be published. The data from the Central Statistics Office shows that the annual growth of almost 8% compares with an increase of 6.6% in December and an increase of 15.5% recorded in the 12 months to January 2015. Month on month, January’s fall of 0.5% compares with an increase of 0.5% recorded in December and a decrease of 1.4% recorded in January of last year. A breakdown of the figures shows that in Dublin property prices decreased by 1.2% in January and were 3.4% higher than a year ago. Dublin house prices decreased by 1.1% in the month and were 3.2% higher compared to a year earlier while apartment prices were 4.8% higher when compared with the same month of 2015. Prices in the rest of Ireland rose by 0.1% in January compared with a decrease of 0.9% in January of last year. Prices were 11.4% higher than in January 2015. But prices are still some way below their peaks in 2007. For example in Dublin prices are 34.9% lower than at their highest level in early 2007. Apartments in Dublin are 41.8% lower than they were in February 2007 while house prices are 36.8% lower than at their highest level in February 2007. Prices in the rest of Ireland are 35.3% lower than their highest level in September 2007 and overall, the national index is 33.8% lower than its highest level in 2007. A lack of supply, particularly in Dublin has been pushing up prices, according to Alan McQuaid of Merrion Stockbrokers, and he expects price growth to be more modest over the next year or two. Investec economist Philip O’Sullivan pointed out that the market has been affected by new mortgage lending rules from the Central Bank introduced in February 2015 which restrict lending multiples and loan to values and he expects prices to keep growing once the impact has lessened. Demand is likely to strengthen and with supply increasing only slowly, prices are expected to pick up as the year progresses, although short term trends are likely to remain weak, according to Dermot O’Leary, chief economist with Goodbody Stockbrokers. Continue reading

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Homes for sales in UK slump to 14 year low

The supply of available housing in the UK is at its lowest level in 14 years with buy to let landlords rushing to complete ahead of tax change, new research shows. Property investors are trying to avoid the additional 3% stamp duty charge on buy to let and second homes from 01 April, according to the report from the National Association of Estate Agents (NAEA) but sales to first time buyers are also up. The January Housing Market report shows that the number of properties available per member branch fell to 33 in January, the lowest recorded since December 2002 when just 25 properties were available per member branch. In contrast, demand for housing soared in January, with an average 453 house hunters registered per branch, the highest recorded since July 2015 and a 21% increase from December when there were an average 374 registered, during a seasonal lull in activity. This reflects increased activity from landlords pushing to complete sales ahead of the upcoming buy to let stamp duty surcharge, the report suggests. Indeed, 72% of estate agents reported an increase in interest from landlords, a rise from 44% in December. Almost a third, 29%, of the total sales made in January were to first time buyers, an increase of 5% from December 2015, the report also shows. ‘Our findings this month reflect what we are all seeing across the market which is that landlords are trying to complete on sales ahead of the changes to stamp duty on additional homes in April. It continues to be a sellers’ market as demand outstrips supply,’ said Mark Hayward, NAEA managing director. ‘The number of sales made to firs time buyers has increased this month, and we should expect to see their market share rise after April. The fact that housing supply has reached a 14 year low really highlights the need for the government to push the house building programme to the very top of their agenda and help more first time buyers make their first step on to the housing ladder,’ he added. Continue reading

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Brexit threat should not hamper Brits buying in France

British people looking to buy a property in France this year are being urged not to worry about the vote on the UK staying in the European Union due to take place in June. There have been scare stories about what might happen if the UK leave the EU bit according to agents in France very little is likely to change. Indeed, they are reporting an uptick in inquiries which suggests that in reality potential buyers are not worried. According to Trevor Leggett, chairman of Leggett Immobilier which has agents across France, there has been no slowdown in demand from UK purchasers and activity is 40% higher than 12 months ago which was a record year. ‘Our view is that even if the vote was to leave the EU there would be little in the way of substantial change. The polls suggest it will be tight but tipped towards an In vote,’ said Leggett. According to Sextant French property even if the public vote to leave the EU nothing would happen suddenly. There would be a period of negotiations over benefits, pensions and healthcare which might affect expats but not necessarily second home owners. The firm has just reported a record year with an estimated 800,000 sales made in 2015, and buyers are making the most of current market conditions which include favourable exchange rates, low mortgage rates and low prices. ‘A Brexit would not stop you from buying your dream house across the Channel. Nany non-EU buyers from as far flung destinations as Australia and China already buy in France undeterred. The Brexit uncertainties lie largely in tax arrangements, obtaining mortgages and the potential weakening of the pound,’ said a Sextant spokesman. ‘Tax arrangements will depend on negotiations in the grace period following the referendum, though happily double taxation agreements will remain unchanged, ensuring you will never be taxed twice on your income,’ he explained. ‘In the short term run up to the referendum certainly, the pound could drop as uncertainty and instability will always disturb the markets to some extent. Once an outcome has been reached, we can hope that the markets have enough confidence to begin to level out,’ he added. For British people living in France there may not be much change. If the UK votes to leave it is highly likely that it will become a member of the European Economic Area (EEA). Iceland and Norway are already members. EEA membership could also result in retention of the European Health Insurance Card (EHIC) card and thus access to healthcare at the same rate as currently. The UK has never been part of the Schengen agreement of totally free border control so nothing would change. ‘Whichever way the UK votes, at Sextant we don't believe British interest in buying French property will be dampened, nor do we believe that the dream will become unattainable or unviable,’ he concluded. Continue reading

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