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Some urban homes values in the US outpacing traditional suburbs

Homes values in some urban areas in the United States are outpacing the value of homes in the suburbs in most top tier metros, new analysis has found. City life is gaining in popularity and high-end condos are popular in Boston, Washington, D.C., Seattle, and other cities with fast changing downtowns, according to a report from real estate firm Zillow. It points out that homes in the suburbs, a longstanding symbol of the American Dream, have typically been worth more, on average, than homes in urban areas. While that is still true in much of the country such as Nashville, Cincinnati, Ohio, and Richmond in Virginia, elsewhere things are changing. The change is most marked in in Boston, Washington, D.C., and San Francisco where the mean value of urban homes has recently surpassed the mean value of homes in suburban areas. And urban homes are gaining ground in Denver, Phoenix, and Chicago. The shift reflects demographic trends of millennials delaying family life and choosing condos, and shifting preferences, as people seek walkable neighbourhoods with urban amenities, the research suggests. It has vast implications for low income people who have traditionally lived in cities to be near services and employment. Zillow recently found that, in San Francisco and Seattle, high income people are making shorter commutes to downtown, while low income people are traveling much further to get to work in the urban core. Zillow based its analysis of urban and suburban home values on a survey of how people define their own neighbourhoods as either urban, rural, or suburban and then used characteristics of those places to extrapolate the results and define ZIP codes all over the country. By looking at home values within those areas, Zillow could see how home values have fared in each type of place over the years. ‘This trend, in part, reflects home buyers' changing preferences, as they seek amenity-rich, dense and walkable areas that are often closer to their workplace,’ said Zillow chief economist Svenja Gudell. ‘In the future, this lifestyle trend will change some suburbs as we know them, and they'll start to feel more urban as buyers move further from city centres in search of affordable housing in communities that still feel urban,’ she added. Nationally, suburban home values grew 5.9% in 2015, while urban home prices increased by 7.5%. In 1997, urban home values grew at 3.8%, slower than suburban values which grew 4.1% that year. On a per square foot basis, home values for urban areas are way up, indicating that people are willing to pay more for less space to live in the city. In Washington, D.C., for example, urban homes in 1996 cost 6% more per square foot than suburban homes. Today, they cost 41% more per square foot. Continue reading

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UK’s private rented sector sees evictions rise to record high

A rise in evictions in the private rented sector and the use of Section 21 accelerated possession procedures is a stark insight into the severity of the UK’s housing shortage, it is claimed. It is also a reflection of the impact increased legislation is having on the private rented sector, according to Paul Shamplina, founder of specialist landlord possession services firm Landlord Action. The latest figures from the Ministry of Justice show that total evictions last year reached a record high of 42,728. Whilst overall possession claims fell during the year to 148,043, the number of accelerated possession cases continued their upward trend reaching 37,663 in 2015, up 4.5% on 2014 and up 10.5% on 2013. ‘Rising rents and welfare cuts are undoubtedly to blame for the growing number of evictions. With a shortage of affordable properties, particularly in the capital, the imbalance of supply and demand has pushed rental inflation well beyond the levels at which tenants’ wages have risen,’ said Shamplina. ‘Many simply can’t keep pace and are falling into arrears. We’re seeing more subletting scams and cases of tenants renting out properties on holiday websites in order to cover their rent than ever before,’ he added. According to the figures the proportion of claims made using accelerated procedure has increased from 7% in 1999 to 25% in 2015. Shamplina explained that there are several reasons for this including rising house prices, uncertainty over future buy to let tax implications and concerns over increased legislation such as Right to rent and the Deregulation Act which have been the catalysts for many self-managing landlords to consider selling up. They use Section 21 as a way to gain possession of their property as quickly as possible. In other circumstances, where tenants are in arrears, Landlord Action says many landlords still opt to use a section 21, instead of Section 8. Some landlords feel they won’t be able to collect rent arrears so this allows them automatic right of possession without having to give any grounds (reasons) once the fixed term has expired. Other landlords are being forced down the Section 21 route because local councils are advising tenants to remain in properties until a possession order has been granted by the courts. This means they can apply for re-housing and do not make themselves voluntary homeless. ‘A section 21 usually enables landlords to gain possession much quicker on a no-fault basis, so they can re-let the property, which is often more financially viable than chasing arrears. I believe use of the Section 21 process for landlords will continue to grow year on year because of councils’ pushing the problem back onto private rental sector landlords,’ said Shamplina. Continue reading

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UK property prices broadly stable with policy changes and a potential EU vote on horizon

Average UK house prices rose by 0.3% in January, and are up 4.4% year on year, remaining broadly stable, according to the latest analysis report. Prime central London prices rose by 0.1% last month to take annual growth to 1.2% while prime central London rents dipped by 0.3%, says the report from real estate firm Knight Frank. The data also shows that price growth for prime property in some regional hubs continues to outperform the wider prime country house market. The stability in UK property prices is likely to be underpinned by a further period of ultra-low interest rates and a solid, although slowing, economic recovery but the report warns that the political outlook is less clear as an European Union referendum draws closer. Grainne Gilmore, head of UK residential research at Knight Frank, pointed out that interest rates being left unchanged by the Bank of England for the 83rd consecutive month in February was not a surprise. ‘But the data released by the Bank when announcing its decision has led economists and markets to change their expectations about when rates may start to rise. Whereas many had forecast a rise around the middle of the year, the verdict is now that rates are on hold until the final quarter of the year, if not 2018,’ she said. ‘This change was prompted by the Bank’s forecasts, showing muted inflation and wage growth in the coming years as well as a downgrade in forecast GDP growth. The central bank now expects 2.2% GDP growth this year, instead of 2.5%. The slower growth is attributed to global economic conditions, not least the effect lower oil prices are having on many economies around the world,’ she explained. ‘However, senior bank officials were clear that the UK economy was still experiencing a solid recovery and that the fall in oil prices was a net good for UK consumers, helping boost consumption and therefore wage growth,’ she added. Households expect prices to continue rising this year according to the latest House Price Sentiment Index (HPSI) from Knight Frank and Markit Economics. Any reading above 50 on this index, which is a bellwether for house prices, suggests prices are rising, or are set to rise. The future index has now been above 50 for 35 consecutive months. However, Gilmore also said that the outlook for 2016 must take into account the policy changes and political decisions which will be made this year, not least another change to the stamp duty regime in April, the Mayoral Elections in London in May and a possible decision on whether the UK should stay in the European Union. ‘As seen following the stamp duty changes in December 2014, and last year’s General Election, the market can adjust to political and policy changes, but periods of uncertainty can take their own toll on market activity,’ she added. While prime central London property prices edged up by 0.1% in January, taking the annual increase to 1.2%, a breakdown… Continue reading

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