Tag Archives: middle-east
US homes sales tumble but partly due to change in time frames rather than demand
Existing home sales in the United States fell considerably in November to the slowest pace in 19 months, according to the latest monthly report from the National Association of Realtors. However, some of the decrease was likely because of an apparent rise in closing time frames that may have pushed some transactions into December, the report says. It shows that all four major regions saw sales declines in November with total existing home sales down 10.5% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.76 million in November, the lowest since April 2014. After last month's decline, the largest since July 2010 at 22.5%, sales are now 3.8% below a year ago, the first year on year decrease since September 2014. According to Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, multiple factors led to November's sales decline, but the primary reason could be an anomaly as the industry adjusts to the new Know Before You Owe rule. ‘Sparse inventory and affordability issues continue to impede a large pool of buyers' ability to buy, which is holding back sales. However, signed contracts have remained mostly steady in recent months, and properties sold faster in November. Therefore it's highly possible the stark sales decline wasn't because of sudden, withering demand,’ he explained. Yun believes that while estate agents are adjusting accordingly to the Know Before You Owe initiative, the main result so far has been the need for longer closing times. According to NAR's Realtors Confidence Index some 47% of respondents in November reported that they are experiencing a longer time to close compared to a year ago, up from 37% in October. ‘It's possible the longer time frames pushed a latter portion of would be November transactions into December. As long as closing timeframes don't rise even further, it's likely more sales will register to this month's total, and November's large dip will be more of an outlier,’ Yun pointed out. The index also shows that pries are still rising. The median existing home price for all housing types in November was $220,300, 6.3% percent above November 2014 and the 45th consecutive month of year on year gains. Total housing inventory at the end of November decreased 3.3% to 2.04 million existing homes available for sale and is now 1.9% lower than a year ago. Unsold inventory is at a 5.1-month supply at the current sales pace, up from 4.8 months in October. NAR president Tom Salomone said that real estate agents worked hard to prepare for Know Before You Owe. ‘We knew there would be some near term challenges as the industry continues to adapt. Nonetheless, an early trend of longer lead times to closings is cause for concern,’ he commented. He added that the NAR will continue to work with the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau to ensure as little disruption as possible to the business of real estate. The latest data also shows that properties typically stayed on the market for 54 days in November, a decrease from… Continue reading
UK property prices set to rise by 3% to 8% in 2016, even with a rate rise
Residential property prices in some locations in the UK could increase by as much as 8% in 2016 as the recovery that has taken hold in London ripples out across the country. But overall price growth is expected to be around 6% across the country during the year, according to the forecast from the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors. One location tipped to see strong growth is Cambridge because of its buoyant jobs market and good commuter links to London. However, the RICS report also suggests that the current shortages of supply in the market is set to continue and this will push up prices with this growth likely to outstrip any rises in household income. According to RICS surveyors the average number of properties for sale have fallen to a record low of 46 and 40% of chartered surveyors believe that it is this lack of stock which is the main reason sellers are not entering the market, leading to a vicious circle. After East Anglia, the strongest growth is expected to be in the South East and the West Midlands, where 7% rises are forecast. The lowest level of increase is forecast for the North East of England where prices are forecast to rise by a much lower 3%. Areas with the highest number of transactions are likely to be the North East, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland, where prices remain low relative to the rest of the UK. RICS chief economist, Simon Rubinsohn, explained that an interest rate rise of 0.25% has been taken into account when making the forecast but he does not expect there to be a big rise in mortgage rates. ‘Housing has clearly leapt up the government’s agenda, but despite the raft of initiatives announced over the past year the lags involved in development mean that prices, and for that matter rents, are likely to rise further over the next 12 months,’ said Rubinsohn. ‘Lack of stock will continue to be the principal driver of this trend but the likely persistence of cheap money will compound it for the time being. Critically our principal concern with the measures announced by the government is that they are overly focused on promoting home ownership at the expense of other tenures,’ he pointed out. ‘Discouraging buy to let could see private rents take even more of the strain if institutional investment doesn’t increase significantly, particularly given the likely reduced flows of social rent property going forward,’ he added. Continue reading
Spanish home prices up 4.5% year on year in third quarter of 2015, rents also up
Residential property prices increased by 4.5% in the third quarter of 2015 compared to the same period in 2014, according to the latest data from the National Statistics Institute. The details from the housing price index means that prices have now increased for six quarters annually in a row following six years of decline and it is the highest quarterly rise since the last quarter of 2007 when growth was 5.7%, just before the global economic downturn. House prices then started falling in the second quarter of 2008 with a decline of 0.3% and continued to fall until the second quarter of 2014. A breakdown of the figures show that the price of new homes fell by 4.3% and other homes were up by 4.5% while quarter on quarter prices overall increased 0.7% which followed a strong rise of 4.1% in the second quarter of the year. In what is a sign of the universal nature of the recovery in the Spanish property market the figures show a rise in prices in almost every region in the country. Asturias and Extremadura recorded the greatest annual rates of increase, up by 2.6% and 2.4%, to 3.5% and 3.3%, respectively, while the greatest annual fall was in the Basque Country and Valencia, down by 0.9% and 0.6% to 1% and 2.1%, respectively. Quarter on quarter nine regions saw prices rise, seven recorded declines and prices remained stable in the Basque Country. The largest quarterly increase was in the Balearic Islands with growth of 3.1% and Asturias up 1.8%, while the biggest fall was in Navarra with a decline of 1.1% and Aragón down 1%. Residential rents are also rising and increased year on year in all regions in November, the first time this has happened for eight years. The data from property porta Fotocasa shows this was led by Catalonia with an annual rise of 10.6%, followed by the Balearic Islands up 7.8%, Madrid up 6.3% and La Rioja up 6%. In Castilla-La Mancha average rents increased by 0.7%, Cantabria was up 1%, the Basque Country up 1.1% and Navarra up 1.3%. Month on month rents increased by 0.5% to €7.02 per square meter per month with 11 regions seeing rises. The Balearic Islands saw a monthly rise of 1.9% and Catalonia up 1.3% while La Rioja, the Canary Islands and Cantabria all saw growth of 0.6%. But average rental prices fell by 1.2% month on month in Galicia, fell by 0.9% in the Basque Country and by 0.8% in Murcia. The data also shows that since the peak of the market in May 2007 when rents were €10.12 per square meter per month rental values have fallen by 30.7% and five regions have seen accumulated declines over 30%. The steepest decline since peak has been in Aragón where rental prices have fallen by 41.6%, followed by Cantabria down 36.1%, Castilla-La Mancha down 35.2%, Valencia down 34.5% and Murcia down 32.3%. The smallest declines from peak are in Castilla… Continue reading
