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September’s Red-Hot Emerging Markets

By Nicholas A. Vardy, CFA With Ben Bernanke’s putting “tapering” on hold, the green light for a traditional fourth-quarter rally in emerging markets is on. Recall that the mere threat of tapering on May 22 had put emerging markets into a tailspin. The stock markets of formerly red-hot BRICs — Brazil, Russia, India and China — fell off a cliff, as sentiment soured on these economic powerhouses. Political unrest in Egypt, Turkey and Syria sent global investors scurrying for the safety and security of developed markets, the U.S. and Japan in particular. That all changed on Aug. 27 when emerging markets bottomed. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index has rallied 14.59% since then, and among the 40 global stock markets I monitor on a daily basis, 13 are up by double digits in September alone. That’s a huge turnaround — but not an unexpected one. I’d be hard pressed to recall many other episodes of such massive underperformance of emerging markets compared with the U.S. Following such a sharp rally, emerging markets are certainly overbought on a short-term basis. But with the Fed putting tapering on the back burner for now, I’m looking for a big fourth quarter in emerging markets. And in a liquidity-driven market, September’s top emerging-market performers are a good place to start. 1. iShares MSCI Thailand Capped ETF : +21.29% The iShares MSCI Thailand Capped ETF THD -2.36% has been one of the top-performing emerging-market exchange-traded funds (ETFs) of the past few years, soaring 39.98% in 2012 alone. But during this past summer’s drubbing of emerging markets, Thailand was hit harder than most. Between May 22 — the day the Fed announced the prospect of tapering — and hitting a its low on Aug. 27, the Thai ETF tumbled over 28%. But since then, the Thai market has rallied 23.49%. The triple whammy of a slump in the Thailand’s currency, the baht, economic growth screeching to halt, and fears of the Federal Reserve’s tapering plunged Thailand’s stock exchange firmly into a bear market. Indeed, Thailand’s economy hardly is ship-shape. Its economy contracted 0.3% between April and June, following a previous fall of 1.7% during the first quarter of 2013, putting the Thai economy officially into recession. That’s a stark contrast to last year’s strong economic growth of more than 6%. No wonder that even as the market has rallied, Goldman Sachs cut its rating for Thailand from overweight. 2. iShares MSCI Turkey ETF : +20.45% Turkey was the top-performing emerging market of 2012, with the iShares MSCI Turkey ETF TUR -1.36% soaring an eye-popping 65.58%. But the threat of imminent tapering and boisterous anti-government protests caused the Turkish market to plunge almost 32% between May 24 through Aug. 26. Since bottoming, however, the market has rallied 21.47%. The summer’s political protests caught investors off guard. Back in the 1990s, Turkey’s emerging market was a poster child for economic instability. Sure as day follows night, you could always count on Turkey’s stock market to blow up regularly. That all changed with a new pro-business Islamic government installed in 2001. The Turkish economy grew at an Asian Tiger-like average rate of 7.5% between 2002 and 2006, faster than any other OECD country. By 2012, Istanbul boasted an eye-popping 36 billionaires, putting it fifth in the world behind Moscow, New York City, London and Hong Kong. In November 2012, Fitch Ratings upgraded Turkey sovereign debt to “BBB-,” the lowest rung on the investment-grade level — the emerging market’s first investment-grade rating in 18 years. Moody’s followed in May 2103, and the Turkish market hit highs not seen in 25 years. 3. WisdomTree India Earnings : +15.27%. Few former emerging-market darlings have attracted more negative headlines over the past six months than India. One of my favorite contrarian indicators is to look at headlines … and bet the opposite. That strategy would have paid off in spades with India. Britain’s Economist magazine dedicated its Aug. 24 cover story to India’s fall from economic grace. Since bottoming four days later, the Wisdom Tree India Earnings ETF EPI -0.32%   has rallied 20.15%. Since May 22, the Indian had market plunged 27.7%, hitting a low on Aug. 28. Political gridlock, a brake on economic reforms, and a plummeting rupee, have made the Indian stock market the worst-performing stock market in the world in 2013, down 17.4%. And that’s after it’s recent sharp rally. The appointment of Raghuram Rajan, a University of Chicago economist and former chief economist of the World Bank , as India’s central-bank chief has lit a fire under the rupee and the Indian stock market. Rajan is introducing reforms to address India’s most glaring weaknesses. But not all of Rajan’s actions bode well for this former emerging market high-flyer. On Friday, Rajan unexpectedly raised a key interest rate in an effort to quell inflation — the first increase since 2011. Disclosure: I hold the iShares MSCI Turkey ETF. Continue reading

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Who’s In For Property Investment?

Last Updated: 23 September 2013Article by Jason Green and Paul Harben Collas Crill Jersey            The latest survey from the Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors has revealed a surge in demand for UK property and the fastest rise in house prices since their peak of seven years ago and a surge in demand for UK property. RICS are not alone in claiming that investors are clamouring to return to the property market. This month’s London Residential Review, produced by Frank Knight, also showed that international investors are driving investment in prime residential property. For overseas investors, the weak pound and low interest rates have driven capital growth in house prices considerably. Taking currency fluctuations into account, Knight Frank is predicting double-digit growth in capital for investors from Europe, USA, Middle East and Asia. For sterling investors, the anticipated growth is 26% – somewhat better than the meagre rates being offered on cash right now. RICS said that although London and the areas around it continued to see the biggest price increases, every region saw prices rise. July saw an acceleration in the housing market recovery that has been running for some time. The growth was seen across the UK. The recovery might have been initially focused in the south-east, but is spreading across the country. RICS particularly saw growth in the west Midlands and the North East, areas which have suffered more than most since the market crash. It is not unusual for us to see our clients achieving double digit income returns on residential property investments. One recent client even expects to receive an income of 15-18% from his buy-to-let. Colliers International also see sustained growth and returning investor confidence in the commercial property market. In its real estate investor forecast, Colliers predicts steady income returns as well as 0.5% rental growth and 3.4% capital value growth. Again, international buyers are playing a major part in the UK commercial property market and they are venturing beyond London to the regions in search of yield. Dougie Lawson, of Lawson and Partners, a property investment and asset management consultancy practice, said: ‘There are many opportunities available for investors to diversify their portfolio. It is possible to buy an “institutional grade” investment property for less than £1m. and with less than £0.5m. with debt.’ Notably, we have recently acted for a number of investors, together with Lawson & Partners, who have purchased commercial investments from Lateral Property Group, one of the UK’s most active developers of food stores, retail units and restaurants. Steven Redgrave, managing director of Lateral, said the company had achieved notable success, completing 34 development projects in the food store, retail and leisure sectors in the past four years, and with a ‘substantial’ forward pipeline. Specifically, Lateral has completed and sold 16 convenience stores in the UK, with eight more due to complete this year. The stores are pre-let to Tesco, Sainsbury’s or Morrisons, generally on 20-year leases with upwards-only reviews, pegged to RPI. A current example as illustrated is a Tesco Express, which is under offer at 6.25% in Peterborough off an initial rent of £47,500. We are helping property investors on the ground here in Channel Islands through the entire process of buying, selling and refinancing UK property. We have a really strong network and can introduce clients to key people including be agents, surveyors, or property tax accountants to make the entire process absolutely seamless. As people who love property, we are always happy to talk all things property. Continue reading

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Lib Dem Conference: Vince Cable’s Speech – Full Text

The Spectator 16 September 2013 Friends. It is a special pleasure to speak to Conference in the city where I had my political baptism of fire. Glasgow is a great city and Glaswegians are warm, hospitable and humorous. But Glasgow has experienced one party, Labour, rule for decades. And I was part of the Labour political machine here in the 1970s. On one level it worked. Insanitary slums were razed to the ground. We built 30,000 new social homes for rent in a decade – 5,000 in one year, a scale unimaginable today. There was also an unhealthy tribalism and a Tammany Hall political machine in which union bosses had excessive influence in picking candidates and deciding policy. Judging by Falkirk, and other Labour fiefdoms, nothing very much has changed. That is one major reason why we must not concede to Labour the mantle of radical progressive politics. We must assert our party’s ownership of that tradition, which in Scotland runs for over a century: from Asquith, Gladstone and Campbell-Bannerman through to Jo Grimond, David Steel, Charles Kennedy, Bob McLennan, Ming Campbell, Jim Wallace and many others. The challenge today is to reinforce that Liberal tradition which is at risk of being compromised by working with what, on Clydeside, are called ‘the hated Tories’. And that’s when people are being polite. Like you, I’ve spent most of my political life fighting against those ‘hated Tories’. But despite that I believe that it was both brave and absolutely right for the party, under Nick Clegg’s leadership, to work with the Tories in an economic emergency, in the UK national interest. Theresa May once described the Tories, a decade ago, as the Nasty Party. After a few years trying to be nice and inclusive it has reverted to type: dog whistle politics, orchestrated by an Australian Rottweiler. Hostility towards organised labour, people on benefits and immigrant minorities. The list of people the Tories disapprove of is even longer: public sector workers, especially teachers; the unmarried; people who don’t own property. Their core demographic excludes pretty much anybody who wouldn’t have qualified for the vote before the 1867 Reform Act. These prejudices can perhaps be explained, in part, by their age profile. I suspect I would qualify – on age, not ideology – to be a member of the Young Conservatives. But I think the other reason is deeper: a cynical calculation in difficult times that fear trumps hope; that competence requires callousness. That is not our kind of politics. It is ugly. And we will not be dragged down by it. That is why our Liberal Democrat message about Fairness is key. We can legitimately claim ownership of fair tax policies which have lifted millions of low earners out of income tax. It is our policy. Don’t let the Tories steal it. I can remember in opposition bringing this proposal to conference, at a time when George Osborne’s top priority was cutting inheritance tax for millionaires. And our commitment to taxing unproductive wealth – valuable property – through a Mansion Tax, is economically sensible and popular; but above all, fair. Don’t let Labour steal that either. Fairness takes us so far – but in my view not far enough. We are not just a nicer version of the Tories. There are fundamental differences about how to create a stronger economy and more jobs. We are five years on from the biggest market failure of our lifetime. Financial capitalism collapsed and was rescued by the state. Labour was in charge and had fallen asleep at the wheel. They were negligent. The Tories’ friends and donors were at the heart of the greed and recklessness which lay behind that disaster. Today they yearn to return to ‘business as usual’. Whilst we work with them, pragmatically and constructively, to clean up the mess, we must not allow them to turn the clock back. In essence, the Tories have a simple world view; private good, public bad. Labour offers the polar opposite. As Liberal Democrats we value both public and private sectors. I support private business, big and small. I also support mutual and employee ownership. And even Tony Benn couldn’t claim to have launched two state-owned banks; the Green Investment Bank – based in Edinburgh- which we promised three years ago has already committed £685 million to green projects. And the Business Bank, which I launched at Conference exactly a year ago is now mobilising private capital to support new banks, local banks and non bank finance. It is the key to stopping the suffocation of good small business by the big banks. By contrast, the Conservatives’ spiritual home is in the United States. They have become the Tea Party Tories. They want to throw overboard any tax or regulation which gets in the way of their blinkered small state ideology. Deep down they believe that there is no alternative to unhindered individual self-interest; that attempts to tackle big disparities of income and wealth takes us down the road to socialist serfdom. Our rejection of dogma also leads us to an eclectic mixture of markets and regulation. In government we are rightly getting rid of the red tape which throttles small business and holds back entrepreneurs. But some regulation is essential. And that is why I work – with Ed Davey and colleagues – to resist Tory pressure to emasculate environmental regulation, as in their ludicrous war on windmills. That is also why we have seen off demands from a Tory donor to make it possible to fire people for no reason whatsoever. Let no one tell you that Liberal Democrats have not made a difference. Without us in government, we would be ruled by people who think the problem with this country is that workers have too much job security. Instead, I will act against abusive practices in zero hours contracts, like exclusivity arrangements which prevent workers seeking alternatives, even when they are given no work. I have secured agreement in government to launch a formal consultation on the best mechanism to tackle abuse. We have had to take some tough and necessary economic decisions with the Tories. There is of course common ground on the need to cut the budget’s structural deficit and promote private enterprise. There are welcome signs of returning confidence. But let us not be carried away, and let’s not get sucked into a petty point scoring, Labour-Tory Punch and Judy show on the economy. It took many years of mistakes to create the financial crisis. It has taken five years to start to dig our way out. We mustn’t now settle for a short term spurt of growth, fuelled by old-fashioned property boom and bankers rediscovering their mojo. We have seen it all before and there are already amber lights flashing to warn us of history repeating itself. The Prime Minister says I am a Jeremiah. But you will recall from your reading of the Old Testament that Jeremiah was right. He warned that Jerusalem would be overrun by the armies of Nebuchadnezzar. In my own Book of Lamentations I described how Gordon Brown’s New Jerusalem was overrun by an army of estate agents, property speculators and bankers. The problem we have now is that the invaders are coming back. They have a bridgehead in London and the south east of England. They must be stopped. Instead we need sustainable growth. That involves rebalancing the economy across the UK in favour of exports and investment – the central purpose of our government’s industrial strategy. We should celebrate the success stories of motor vehicles and aerospace, the creative industries and educational exports and the partnership between government and business in all of these sectors. Manufacturing is coming back through rebuilt supply chains. We are attacking the country’s scandalous neglect of skills through our successful relaunching of large scale apprenticeships. We have given priority to Britain’s world class science and have created a chain of innovation centres – the catapults – of which there are two in Glasgow, promoting new, business-led, technologies for advanced manufacturing and new offshore renewables. We are building a genuine cross-party consensus around these government interventions so that they endure. But, make absolutely no mistake, without Liberal Democrats they would not have happened. But if sustainable recovery is to be achieved, we must meet the enormous challenge of house building. Demand growth has been outstripping supply, driving up both rents and prices. Property is simply unaffordable for families without big incomes or access to the bank of mum and dad. Yet we are nowhere near recapturing the house building drive which pulled Britain out of the slump in the 1930s. Barely 100,000 homes a year are being completed, a quarter of what was being achieved in the 1960s. In addition, two million social homes have been sold since Mrs Thatcher began in 1979and no less than three quarter of a million of them were sold under Labour. Hence the enormous pressure on families trapped by a lethal combination of low pay, rising rents and tighter benefit rules. The priority right now is increasing housing supply through private and public sectors. Conference took a strong step forward this morning with the proposal to give councils greater borrowing capacity to get on and build social housing. The country desperately needs delivery of homes not dogmatic arguments over tenure. I hoped that we would find common ground with the Tories at least in one area: supporting an open, outward looking country. Indeed we said with one voice: Britain is open for business. Sadly, that message has changed. Brazilian and other students who would bring economic and wider benefits to British universities are being told they are burdensome immigrants so they go to the United States instead. Many Chinese tourists and businessmen are so fed up with the hassle and humiliation involved in trying to visit Britain to invest here that they are taking their money to Germany and France. What they hear is that we are closed for business. That must change. Moreover, our status as a popular destination for job-creating investment from Japan, the USA and mainland Europe could be compromised by careless talk from some of my cabinet colleagues – let alone the backbench Bones and Hollobones – about Britain leaving the European Union and the Single Market. Britain’s future in the European Single Market is being put at risk by the Tories. Yet millions of British jobs depend on our protecting that relationship. Let’s remember that we voted to join the present Coalition. We did not vote to join a coalition with UKIP. Of course, the Tories are frightened by the public reaction to overseas workers. But there is something deeply opportunistic about people who lecture our workers, and the rest of Europe, about the need for free and flexible labour markets, but then squawk with panic when those free and flexible labour markets bring in foreign workers. The politics of identity is toxic, and difficult. At times of hardship, those outside the elite of rich and powerful tend to blame outsiders. But we need to address the underlying problem. At present most workers’ pay is being squeezed in real terms. This has averted an unemployment disaster in the short term. But there is no long-term future in Britain being a low pay, low productivity economy. We cannot just wave a magic wand and make the problem go away but we can be more ambitious in showing the way forward. I have asked the Low Pay Commission to advise how we might achieve a higher minimum wage without damaging employment. The deeper lesson is that business has to be responsible as well as profitable. Three years ago at Conference I said in my speech that we must shine a bright light in the dark corners of capitalism. I thought I was paraphrasing Adam Smith, the sage of the Scottish Enlightenment; but much of the press thought that Karl Marx had risen from his grave in Highgate cemetery to join the Coalition Government. That was before either the Libor or hacking scandals broke; and the revelation of industrial scale tax avoidance by prominent companies. Trust was very badly damaged. Responsible capitalism is, actually, what sensible business wants. And I have worked with business amongst other things to achieve binding shareholder votes on executive pay; to make real progress in getting women properly represented on company boards and getting institutional investors to think longer term. Jo Swinson and I have a lot more work to do to advance family-friendly working and to establish an open register of who owns companies, to help curb tax dodging. And I am preparing to legislate to make it easier to prosecute and ban rogue directors who repeatedly walk away from their debts and their customers. We Liberal Democrats see business as a partner not an adversary in creating responsible capitalism. I’d like to end, as I began, in Glasgow. There is a stretch of the Maryhill Road in the north of the city that connects the ward I once represented with the constituency Jo now represents in parliament. One thing has not changed in all those years. Despite the efforts of different governments in the UK and Scotland there is an enormous gulf – as Jo said in her opening speech, seven years of life expectancy – between the prosperous and educated at one end and a seriously deprived community at the other. I want our party to be arguing for the unity of the United Kingdom. But unity is not just about Scotland and England. It is also about north and south. Public and private. Rich and poor. In our tribally divided politics, the country badly needs the one party that can bridge these dangerous divides. This isn’t just a matter of splitting the difference between other parties’ policies but setting out a clear and distinctive vision. The country needs a party which is competent in office but also committed to fighting prejudice and entrenched privilege. We are that party. Tags: Lib Dem conference 2013 , Speeches , Vince Cable Continue reading

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