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Canadian property prices and sales both continue upwards, latest index shows
National home sales in Canada rose by 0.7% from September to October and prices were up 7.1% year on year, according to the latest data from the Canadian Real Estate Association. It is the sixth consecutive month of stronger resale housing activity compared to a quiet start to the year, and the strongest activity for the month of October since 2009. ‘Low interest rates continued to support sales in some of Canada’s more active and expensive urban housing markets and factored into the monthly increase for national sales,’ said CREA president Beth Crosbie. ‘Even so, sales did not increase in many local markets in Canada, which shows that national and local housing market trends can be very different,’ she added. According to Gregory Klump, CREA chief economist, while the strength of national sales activity is far from being a Canada-wide phenomenon, it extends beyond Vancouver, Calgary and Toronto. ‘Sales in a number of B.C. markets have started to recover from weaker demand over the past couple of years. They have also been improving across much of Alberta, where interprovincial migration and international immigration are reaching new heights,’ he explained. Actual (not seasonally adjusted) activity in October stood 7% above levels reported in the same month last year. October sales were up from year ago levels in about 70% of all local markets, led by Greater Vancouver and the Fraser Valley, Victoria, Calgary, and Greater Toronto. Combined sales in these five markets account for almost 40% of national sales activity, and nearly 60% of the year on year increase in national sales. Actual (not seasonally adjusted) sales activity for the year to date in October was 5.2% above levels in the first 10 months of 2013 and 2.5% above the 10 year average for the same period. The house price index increased by 5.51% year on year in October. Price gains have held steady between 5% and 5.5% since the beginning of the year. A breakdown of the data shows that year on year price growth accelerated for two storey single family homes, townhouse units and apartment units in October. By contrast, price momentum slowed further for one storey single family homes. Two storey single family homes continue to post the biggest year on year price gains at 6.94%, followed closely by townhouses at 5.83%, and one storey single family homes at 4.75%. Price growth for apartment units remains comparatively more modest at 3.51%. Price growth varied among housing markets tracked by the index. As in recent months, Calgary saw the biggest increase at 9.47%, Greater Toronto saw growth of 8.3% and Greater Vancouver was up 6.03%. Prices were up between 1% and 2.5% year on year in the Fraser Valley, Victoria, and Vancouver Island, flat in Saskatoon, Ottawa, Greater Montreal, and Greater Moncton, and down 3.4% in Regina. The actual (not seasonally adjusted) national average price for homes sold in October 2014 was $419,699, up 7.1% from the same month last year. The national average price continues to be pulled upward by sales… Continue reading
UK property prices up over 12% year on year, latest data shows
UK house prices increased by 12.1% in the year to September but there is considerable variation with London driving national prices up, the latest data shows. Overall, house price annual inflation was 12.5% in England, 5.8% in Wales, 7.6% in Scotland and 10.9% in Northern Ireland, according to the figures from the Office of National Statistics. Annual house price increases in England were driven by an annual increase in London of 18.8% and to a lesser extent increases in the East at 13.4% and the South East at 11.6%. Excluding London and the South East, UK house prices increased by 9.1% in the 12 months to September 2014. The data also shows that on a seasonally adjusted basis, average house prices increased by 0.5% between August and September 2014. In September 2014, prices paid by first time buyers were 13.3% higher on average than in September 2013. For existing owners, prices increased by 11.5% for the same period. According to Peter Rollings, chief executive officer of Marsh & Parsons, the housing market recovery is still showing spritely movement, and good ground has been covered in property values compared to a year ago. ‘Values have retreated back from peak levels in the majority of regions across the country. London remains the spark plug injecting energy into the overall annual rise in UK house prices, and lively demand to live and work in the capital has always spurred growth on at a faster pace than in other regions,’ he said. ‘Following a slower than normal summer in London, an attractive combination of greater supply of property, excellent lending conditions and more realistic asking prices are attracting good amounts of potential buyers to the market,’ he added. David Newnes, director of Reeds Rains and Your Move estate agents, pointed out that recent hiccups in the market have not shaken the overall underlying stability. ‘Zooming in on the regional footprints unearths a more complex path of growth as the recovery continues to advance with a Southern leaning slant,’ he said. ‘If we omit London and the South East from our calculations, a milder annual change in property prices emerges. Yet at the very top end of the housing market in prime central areas of London, growth is subsiding,’ he added. He also pointed out that the firm’s research shows that October saw the highest level of house sales completed in a month since November 2007. ‘This increased level of house sale completions marks a considerable, though laborious, reflection of the increased buyer activity earlier in the year since the recession zapped the energy from the market. Not only this, but activity is starting to shift towards areas where the recovery still requires support and attention,’ he explained. The research also found that the biggest uplift in completions in the third quarter of 2014 compared to 2013 has been witnessed outside of London. Completed house sales in both the West Midlands and East Midlands have risen 22%, while in London house sale completions are up… Continue reading
Public land could deliver as many as two million new homes in England
Up to two million new homes could be delivered on public sector land holdings in England to help with the current housing crisis, according to a new analysis from real estate adviser Savills. The firm’s estimate is based on detailed analysis of public records of the Central Government Estate and the land holdings of the Greater London Authority (GLA) as well as market knowledge of the potential for development on NHS and Local Authority land. It is widely recognised that England is facing a housing crisis and that surplus or underused public land could play a vital role in delivering new homes, which are currently being built at only half the rate needed to accommodate the country’s growing population. However, the analysis report points out that a lack of transparency regarding the totality of these assets remains a major drawback in assessing the full potential, despite huge progress by the Government in this area, and limited public data currently makes it impossible to conduct a comprehensive analysis of all public land. The public estate held by central and local government in England is worth £370 billion according to figures from the Cabinet Office, but there is little clarity regarding what form these assets take. The Savills residential research team has conducted detailed analysis of 250,000 hectares of land held by the Central Government estate in England, for which data is available. The team estimates that 13,000 hectares (5%) are most suitable for residential development and that these sites could deliver 600,000 homes. Further analysis of assets held by the Greater London Authority (GLA) shows there is space for at least an additional 100,000 homes, bringing the known potential to 700,000 homes. However, these sites are only part of the public land story. A lack of data means that large parts of public land holdings are impossible to measure. NHS and Local Authority land, which Savills was not able to include in its analysis, has significant potential. In the absence of public records, the capacity of Local Authority land is not clear, but the firm estimates that this might be around one million, if assets are actively managed and estate densities are increased. Similarly, little data is available regarding NHS Land. However, based on market experience the firm knows that these sites include many prime developable locations with scope for intensification. Hence Savills best estimate for the number of additional homes that could be delivered through the reconfiguration and intensification of operational sites within the NHS estate could be 300,000. NHS Property Services, which controls just 11% of the whole estate, released 24 hectares of surplus land between April 2013 and July 2014 alone. ‘Big strides have been made to provide data on Central Government holdings but we urgently need to achieve a similar register of assets held by Local Authorities and NHS bodies,’ said Robert Grundy, head of housing, Savills housing division. ‘Only then will we be in a position to accurately assess the full potential both for… Continue reading
