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Apartment prices likely to remain high in Hong Kong despite promise of more supply
The Hong Kong government has signalled that it is determined to tackle the imbalance between housing demand and supply and confirmed that it will make residential sites available for construction. This year’s land sale programme will inlcude 29 residential sites and the Hong Kong Monetary Authority has announced a seventh round of cooling measures for the residential small to medium sized apartments market which is likely to reduce transactions in the short term. Most of the enw residential sites are likely to be in the New Territories and provide around 16,000 new homes. Taking into account land supply in general it is expected that some 19,000 units could be provided in 2015/2016, meeting the government’s supply target. According to the latest monthly Hong Kong Review report from Knight Frank prices in the small to medium sized sector have been rising since 2010 despite the implementation of various cooling policies. The international real estate firm thinks the latest measures may affect sales in the coming months but will have a limited effect on prices due to strong demand from first time buyers. For residential properties worth HK$7 million or below, the maxium Loan to Value ratio (LTV) has been lowered to 60% from the previous 60% to 70%. For borrowers buying a second property the maximum debt servicing ratio has been lowered from 50% to 40%. Office sales have also been slow. In February only a few major transactions were recorded, but the report says there were signs of investors returning to the market. Grade A office prices in major business districts have not seen notable growth since the end of 2014. ‘However, rental growth is expected to support capital appreciation and we expect investors to continue to increase their focus on the office sales market this year,’ the report explains. In the office leasing market divergent trends have been seen. On the one hand finance, insurance and medical beauty companies are continuing to expand and driving up office demand. But sourcing and logistic firms face intense competition from cities such as Shanghai and Singapore and prefer to relocate to reduce costs. ‘Looking ahead we believe Grade A office rents on Hong Kong island will continue to increase in 2015, mainly driven by strong demand from companies looking to expand in these areas with limited supply and where vacancy rates remain low,’ it concludes. Continue reading
Optimism returns to UK housing market after mid 2014 dip, says BSA
Regardless of potential uncertainties such as the forthcoming general election, optimism has returned to the UK property market after a dip in the middle of 2014, a new survey shows. Some 36% of respondents to the property tracker index from the Building Societies Association said they believe that now is a good time to buy a home. The rebound since September is particularly marked by a substantial drop in the number of people who think now is a bad time to buy. Taken together, the Property Tracker index has bounced back from a 9% low in September 2014 to 23%. It points out that the dip in 2014 coincided with the introduction of new mortgage regulations and the announcement by the Financial Policy Committee of actions to limit lending in the housing market. Results now indicate that transaction volumes may begin to slowly pick up after cooling off late last year. Despite average wages increasing and high levels of employment, raising a deposit is the greatest barrier to buying a home. Overall, 59% of those surveyed say that this is the biggest hurdle they have to overcome, up by three percentage points on December 2014. The future prospect of a rise in the Bank Rate is an issue for many. Over one in 10 borrowers say that they would be forced to miss a payment on a bill if interest rates rose by 1% over the year ahead. A further 12% said that making loan repayments would be a constant struggle. ‘Optimism in the housing market is back after a long, slow winter. Conditions in the mortgage market and the wider economy are improving and this confidence is driving consumer sentiment, especially those looking to purchase a home,’ said BSA head of mortgage policy, Paul Broadhead. ‘Consumers and providers are also cheered by the fact that house building is starting to increase, household finances are less squeezed and inflation has fallen to 0%. Even if deflation happens, provided it is short lived and is not generated by a fall in demand in the economy, it should not be damaging,’ he pointed out. ‘The Financial Policy Committee will keep watching property prices and sales volumes carefully. It, saw the need to act last year and now has a range of new tools at its disposal. A more sustainable cure for the affordability challenge is increased housebuilding,’ explained Broadhead. ‘Earlier this month we asked for a revolution in the provision of new housing in our discussion document Housing at the Heart of Government. Like millions of others, we now await the outcome of the general election to discover whether housing will sit at the top of the political agenda as promised,’ he added. According to Paul Smith, chief executive officer of haart estate agents, it should be remembered that the last two years have been full of very positive news, particularly for first time buyers. He pointed out that they have benefitted from the introduction of… Continue reading
House price growth in UK cities continues to fall, latest index shows
The rate of house price inflation in UK cities continues to slow with growth of 10% in the 12 months to February compared to 11.6% six months ago, the latest data shows. But there is considerable regional variation with house price growth ranging from 3.6% in Newcastle to 12.9% in London, according to the Cities House Price Index from residential analysts Hometrack. The highest growth cities in the last quarter were Glasgow and Liverpool, but average values remain 13% and 15% below their 2007 peak. While house price growth in high value cities such as London, Oxford and Cambridge continues to slow, lower value cities registered a sharp uplift in transaction volumes in 2014 as demand for housing grows, which suggests there is substance to the recent pick-up in house price growth. Rising transaction volumes are an important precursor to house price inflation. The 15% to 35% uplift in transactions in 2014 indicates the most significant recovery in house market activity in cities outside of the South East of England since 2007. Belfast, Leeds, Liverpool and Cardiff all registered a 20% to 39% growth in sales volumes in 2014 compared to the average for the previous five years. Rising demand and increased market activity have resulted in increased house price inflation, which is running at between 5% and 8%. In contrast, double digit house price to earnings ratios in the higher value cities in the South East of England are impacting demand. Growth in housing transactions in 2014 compared to their five year average was well below average. Sales volumes were down in all the high growth cities over 2014 compared to 2013, specifically falling 13% in Cambridge, 7% in Aberdeen, 2% in Oxford and 1% in London. Lower sales volumes are feeding into a slower rate of house price growth in these cities, the index report says. It also says that falling sales volumes combined with a general slowdown in activity in the run up to the general election are resulting in lower mortgage approvals for home purchase. Home owners using a mortgage to buy a home accounted for two thirds of sales in 2014 according to analysis by Hometrack. The remaining third of sales were to cash buyers or those borrowing with a buy to let mortgage, groups who are not subject to mortgage affordability tests. ‘Transactions are a lead indicator for house prices. The acceleration in house price growth in London in the last two years was preceded by three years of rising transactions,’ said Richard Donnell, director of research at Hometrack. ‘A similar pattern is being registered in the cities outside the south of England, as pent-up demand returns to the market supported by low mortgage rates and an improving economic outlook,’ he explained. ‘While the pick-up in activity is welcome news, housing sales in 2014 are still 38% lower than the level seen in 2007 and 10%… Continue reading
