Tag Archives: london
Lack of supply could hold back London property market, it is suggested
A limited drip feed of new homes to buy or rent and forthcoming tightening of mortgage lending criteria may hold back the resurgent residential market in London, it is claimed. Demand is still outstripping supply in both sales and lettings now that the political uncertainty of the past few months is over, according to research from London estate agency Chestertons. The firm’s latest prime residential sales report says that despite the uncertainty in the lead up to the general election at the beginning of May, the demand for new homes remained robust in the first three months of the year and continued to outstrip modestly improved supply. Demand for new-build homes from overseas also remained high. Prime central areas resales experienced a marginal return to capital value growth of up to 0.7% for the first time since the first quarter of 2014, although the north and east of the city, led by Canary Wharf, saw above average value growth of 1.4% in the first three months of the year. ‘We experienced a fairly subdued six months in the run-up towards the election, with fears of a mansion tax which could have wiped up to a quarter of a million pounds off the value of properties in the £2 million plus bracket had it been introduced, clearly having an impact on buyers in prime London markets,’ said Nick Barnes, Chestertons' head of research. ‘Furthermore investors, institutions and landlords were in many cases reviewing their holdings in the event of major changes to taxation and lettings regulation being brought in by a Labour led administration. The Conservatives' slim majority has calmed such fears and enquiries have been strong since the morning of 0 May, up by more than 15% on the pre-election period,’ he explained. But he pointed out that there are still challenges that need addressing if the upturn in confidence is to be sustained. ‘The first major challenge is to revitalise supply of good quality homes of all shapes and sizes into both the sales and lettings markets. Politicians at the national and local level must now step up to deliver more land for development, while finding new ways to incentivise house builders and easing the planning regulatory burden to get more homes into the system,’ said Barnes. ‘The raft of policies aimed at getting more people on to the housing ladder that the Tories pledged in their manifesto also have a key part to play, especially as anticipated tightening of mortgage lending criteria may actually make home ownership less accessible for many,’ he explained. ‘Any future rises in the base rate of interest will of course also have a significant impact, while the expiry of the mortgage guarantee portion of the Help to Buy scheme in early 2017 could also have a detrimental effect. Still more needs to be done to incentivise builders and developers. It will be interesting to see what the Chancellor George Osborne announces in his July Budget to… Continue reading
UK house price expectations remains positive, latest index suggests
House price expectations in the UK remain positive, but signs of a post-election bounce are largely confined to London, according to the latest property sentiment index. Some 20.2% of the 1,500 households surveyed across the UK for the Knight Frank and Markit Economics house price sentiment index said that the value of their home had risen over the last month, while 4.1% reported a fall. This gave the HPSI a reading of 58, the twenty-sixth consecutive month that the reading has been above 50. But it was a slight decrease on last month’s reading of 58.2, indicating that households may have factored in the uncertainty caused by the general election to perceived price growth. ‘There is little evidence yet of an election bounce in house price expectations, reflecting current market conditions. Activity is certainly picking up following the election of a majority government, and the certainty this has provided in the housing market,’ said Grainne Gilmore, head of UK residential research at Knight Frank. Demand is rising, but an increasing number of vendors are putting their homes on the market, and this is set to create more balance in terms of pricing. Londoners expectations for future price rises reached their highest level since November last year, perhaps reflecting the increased certainty in the outlook for property taxes in the capital,’ she added. The future HPSI, which measures what households think will happen to the value of their property over the next year, fell in May to 70, slightly down from 70.2 in April. In spite of the monthly decline, the proportion of households expecting prices to fall over the next 12 months at 5.2% was the lowest ever recorded since the survey began in 2009. Meanwhile, 45.1% anticipate a rise in the value of their property and 49.7% forecast no change over the year ahead. Households in the East of England at 77.8 were most confident about price rises, followed by those in London at 77.7 and the South East at 73.5. The data also shows that some 6.4% of UK households said they planned to buy a property in the next 12 months, down from 6.5% a year previously. On a regional basis, nearly one in 10 households in the North East is planning a purchase in the next 12 months, followed by those living in London where 8.4% of households said they would be buying a property in 2015. ‘May’s survey highlights positive house price expectations across the UK, although households are still much less bullish than was seen at the post-recession peak exactly one year ago,’ said Tim Moore, senior economist at Markit. ‘Tighter lending criteria and stretched affordability continue to restrain house price sentiment, while improving labour market conditions and continued low mortgage rates remain two key drivers of positive property price trends,’ he explained. ‘The most likely area of the property market to experience an appreciable post-election bounce is the house building sector, as decision making should reaccelerate after several months… Continue reading
Pre-election jitters saw UK asking prices fall by 0.1% in May
There was an unseasonal drop in new seller asking prices in the UK in May, down by 0.1%, and the first fall in the month of May for five years, the latest index shows. This means that the average price of a home fell to £285,891 but prices are still up 2.5% compared to a year ago, although this annual rise is down from 4.7% in April, according to the latest date from Rightmove. The firm suggests that some sellers coming to market were forced to price more aggressively due to buyer uncertainty over the general election outcome so the fall was very much a short term one and asking prices are expected to bounce back again. ‘The unexpected outcome of a majority government has released the brakes on buyer confidence and activity, and will exert some upwards price pressure in the coming months,’ said Miles Shipside, Rightmove director and housing market analyst. He explained that the new government faces the long term challenge of delivering on an election promise to build 275,000 new affordable homes in the term of the current parliament. And he pointed out that the current shortage of suitable property for sale, meant that even the election uncertainty only caused prices to drop in three out of the 10 regions, London, which would have been hit hardest by mansion tax, the North East and Yorkshire and the Humber. He also warned that sellers who think they have the upper hand due to the lack of property for sale should be aware that a surge of new competition could be on the way, giving buyers some extra negotiating power. In the three months after the May 2010 election there was a 17% jump in the number of properties coming to market compared to the previous quarter. With a majority government in power and record spring traffic on Rightmove, early indications from estate agents suggest that the next quarter could see another surge in property coming to market. ‘Buyers should note that there is often a surge of property supply after an election, as those who have held off coming to market decide to take the plunge. Many potential sellers may have held back expecting a period of hung parliament uncertainty, but they could now decide to catch the late spring market,’ said Shipside. ‘ In a traditional tight stock market an increase in supply of available property and greater competition among sellers to attract buyers may moderate their price expectations and make them more open to an offer,’ he explained. ‘The previous election saw jumps in new seller numbers in all regions of the country, with London and Wales leading the way with over 20% more properties coming to market. There may be a window for buyers to act now in this late spring market before prices rise in the next few months,’ he added. Continue reading
