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Industry Outlook For Carbon Prices To Remain Low To 2020
Monday 3rd June 2013 The value of carbon allowances traded on the EU’s Emissions Trading System (ETS) won’t recover to pre recession levels before 2020 according to an annual survey of industry players, raising concerns about the long term impact of the UK’s carbon price floor for energy intensive businesses in the UK. The views come in an annual survey by PwC for the International Emissions Trading Association (IETA), examining views of carbon market investors, traders and advisors, who meet today at the industry’s annual conference in Barcelona. The outlook for price recovery remains weak according to members, due to the oversupply of allowances, reduced demand and policy uncertainty. EU allowances (EUAs), which traded at over €30 before the recession, are currently trading at around €3.50, and only 7% of the value of what is believed to be necessary to shift economies onto a low carbon pathway (€47). 56% of respondents expect EUAs to trade at €5-10 between now and 2020, a 47% fall from last year’s expectations for the same time period, and a 68% fall from those in 2011. With such low prices for energy intensive businesses including manufacturers and energy generators, the Carbon Price Support Mechanism was introduced to incentivise investment in low carbon power generation, through a carbon tax. But the collapse in European carbon prices since 2011 means the UK faces higher carbon prices than elsewhere in Europe. The results raise competitiveness concerns for UK businesses with carbon leakage likely if companies relocate production to other EU countries to avoid costs. Jonathan Grant, director, PwC Sustainability & Climate change, said: “With a sustained period of low prices expected for EU carbon permits, the UK’s Carbon Price Floor looks increasingly out of line with the rest of Europe, which raises concerns about the impact on UK business, when other countries in the EU don’t have a similar tax.” In the survey, members also overwhelmingly backed intervention by the European Commission to reform the EU ETS within 12 months. The Council is due to vote on proposals in June, but the survey shows members feel the proposals will not go far enough to boost values. Four out of five now feel that domestic or regional policy initiatives are likely to be more important than international negotiations over the next five years. The linking together of domestic or regional carbon markets was particularly highlighted, with 94% expecting the EU and Australian carbon markets to be linked before 2020, and 25% for both California and South Korea. The new Californian carbon market, launched at the start of the year, is expected to increase its share of the global market in terms of value, with California Carbon Allowances expected to continue trading at US$10-20 over the first three years of the programme. Jonathan Grant, director, PwC, who performed analysis on the survey, said: “Despite the collapse of carbon prices, it’s reassuring that all regulated entities surveyed said that the carbon price is still relevant to their capital investment decisions, with four out of five saying it is an important factor. “However a sustained period of low prices expected for EU carbon permits, means business looks set to face a patchwork of climate tax and regulation over the coming years which may raise concerns about competitiveness and high administrative costs.” Continue reading
Carbon Cap & Trade Builds Global Momentum
By EV World Editorial Staff Policymakers in Washington, D.C. might be mired in the politics of intransigence, especially when it comes to carbon dioxide emissions, but California and nine U.S. states in northeast aren’t. They are taking action by implementing carbon cap & trade auctions to begin to reign in emissions of the climate-altering greenhouse gas, which just climbed past 400 parts per million (ppm) in Earth’s atmosphere – a concentration not seen in literally millions of years. And they aren’t alone, cities, regions and nations around the planet are starting to take similar action and what is emerging, according to Silvio Marccaci, is the beginning of a global trading system that will eventually link China, Australia, the European Union, and others, including those U.S. states and Canadian provinces astute and prescient enough to join in. Marcacci is a Washington, D.C.-based analyst who closely follows the Cap & Trade scene and writes about it for The Energy Collective and CleanTechnica websites. It was his article in the latter online publication about California’s recent, and third, carbon allowance auction that attracted EV World’s attention. Launched in 2012, the auction, which has the force of state law behind it, has completely sold out of its allowances at more than $14 a ton. That’s above the $10 floor. It turns out that what California is doing is just the tip of the proverbial iceberg, which might be a endangered metaphor, itself, on a warming planet. There are various carbon trading schemes popping up all around the planet. In fact, in a subsequent article appearing in the same publication, he reports that the World Bank has now identified 60 carbon pricing systems that are either already in place, like California’s or the even older Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative, known as RGGI (pronounced ‘Reggie’), which is comprised of nine member states in the U.S. northeast, or are set to take effect shortly. Conservatives have long criticized such schemes as harming the global competitiveness of the United States. Fossil fuel lobbyists and their political allies have long thwarted efforts to implement either Cap & Trade or carbon taxes at the national level. Even President Barrack Obama has let it be known he won’t be spending on political capital on it. But then he may not have to, because states may be solving the problem among themselves, and with surprising economic payoffs. Marccaci points out that the one sector of California’s economy that has grown through the recession has been its ‘green’ energy sector from smart grid start-up in Silicon Valley to solar installers in San Diego, business is booming, in part because of the state’s progressive policies. One of those policies is to take the proceeds from the auctions and return 85% of it back to California rate payers in the form of a twice yearly credit on their utility bills. The remaining 15% is used to continue the build-out of green energy technologies. Meanwhile, pollution-wracked China recently announced that it, too, would be placing a cap on carbon emissions, joining up with the EU in a pan-continent trading system. Australia’s flawed carbon tax is being transitioned to a Cap & Trade system that will tie into one with New Zealand. The national governments of Chile, Brazil, Turkey and Ukraine, and Japan are reportedly considering creating similar systems. South Korea’s system is already in place and set to take effect. In this nearly 30 minute-long conversation with EV World’s publisher Bill Moore, Marcacci makes the case that what we’re seeing is the beginning to a global system to control and steadily begin to ratchet-down carbon emissions on a planetary scale, driven by the realization that if we don’t reign in CO2 we are on a path to average global temperatures which will make human civilization, as we know it, impossible to maintain. In his “World Bank Finds 60 Carbon Pricing Systems” article, Marccaci concludes: “If enough carbon pricing systems are online or planned by the next United Nations climate meetings, the power of international carbon markets as an economic and environmental stimulus may be too hard to ignore.” Continue reading
Market Mechanisms At The Heart Of Government Climate Actions
WEBWIRE – Tuesday, June 04, 2013 IETA and EDF joint report documents the rise of carbon markets globally Today, the International Emissions Trading Association (IETA) and The World’s Carbon Markets: A case study guide to emissions trading, a collaborative series of case studies examining carbon market development around the globe. Note: The case studies are available at www.edf.org/worldscarbonmarkets . The report compares key features of current and prospective policies in 18 jurisdictions around the world. It is a resource for policy makers, analysts, and anyone interested in learning more about emissions trading. The report focuses on both mature carbon markets, such as the European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) and the northeastern U.S. Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI), and also emerging policy developments across the world, from Kazakhstan to Mexico to China. IETA CEO and President Dirk Forrister said, “This is an exciting time for climate action powered by markets. This landmark report showcases the wide range of countries taking serious decisions on climate change. Many have concluded that market mechanisms make the most sense in achieving emissions reductions while preserving economic growth.” “Emissions trading programs vary in their features, but they all share the key insight that well-designed markets can be a powerful tool in achieving environmental and economic progress,” EDF vice president for international climate Nathaniel Keohane said. “Market-based policies are a proven way to limit carbon pollution and channel capital and innovation into clean energy, helping to avert the catastrophic consequences of climate change. Policy makers considering market-based approaches can take inspiration from the growing number of jurisdictions already headed in that direction. These case studies are meant to help point the way.” By providing a comprehensive overview of the features of different trading systems, the report also can help to facilitate “linking” of carbon markets, where doing so can enhance the effectiveness and performance of existing programs. For example, California and Québec expect to host their first joint auction in January 2014. The European Union (EU) and Australia will commence a two-stage linking process from 2015. Mr Forrister commented, “As carbon markets diversify, IETA believes it is essential to communicate the different approaches in a clear way. This report can help policymakers see what their peers in other parts of the world are doing on carbon market design. The imperative to link is still there, to gain greater efficiency and reduce the costs of achieving policy targets.” Mr Forrister added, “Understanding and comparing program elements is key to building these necessary linkages, and ensuring that environmental integrity is maintained or even strengthened.” IETA and EDF have developed these case studies to give businesses, policymakers, and thought leaders a clear picture of global carbon market developments occurring around the globe. About the International Emissions Trading Association (IETA) IETA has been the leading voice of the business community on the subject of carbon markets since 2000. IETA’s 150 member companies include some of the world’s leading corporations, including global leaders in oil, electricity, cement, aluminum, chemical, paper, and other industrial sectors; as well as leading firms in the data verification and certification, brokering and trading, legal, finance, and consulting industries. Environmental Defense Fund Environmental Defense Fund, a leading national nonprofit organization, creates transformational solutions to the most serious environmental problems. EDF links science, economics, law and innovative private-sector partnerships. Continue reading




