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Property price growth in Australia easing to a more sustainable level

Home price growth in Australia eased again during the September 2014 quarter but are up 9.1% compared to a year ago, the latest data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics show. Sydney continues to drive residential property price increases with the Residential Property Price Index (RPPI) for Sydney up 2.7% in the September quarter of 2014 and 14.6% in the previous year. As well as the rise in Sydney, the RPPI rose in Melbourne, Brisbane, Adelaide and Hobart by 1%, and by 0.3% in Darwin and Canberra. Perth was the only city to show a decrease in prices with the RPPI decreasing 0.1%. The total value of Australia's 9.4 million residential dwellings increased to $5.3 trillion. The mean price of dwellings in Australia is now $563,100, an increase of $8,300 over the quarter. Established house prices for Sydney rose 3.2% and attached dwelling prices rose 1.8% while overall the RPPI for the weighted average of the eight capital cities rose 1.5% in the September quarter of 2014 and 9.1% in the previous year. This includes growth of 9.2% in established house prices and an 8.5% increase in attached dwelling prices over the year. The figures indicate that price growth is easing to a much more sustainable rate, according to Shane Garrett, senior economist at the Housing Industry Association (HIA). ‘The annual rate of home price growth nationally is back in single figures for the first time in a year. At the same time, new home building is stretching to its busiest year in two decades. This is no coincidence,’ he explained. ‘Clearly, the housing industry has risen to the challenge in terms of seeking to meet Australia’s increased housing requirements. However, capacity is bursting at the seams. Any home builder will tell you of the difficulties in sourcing crucial trades like bricklayers, at a time when training budgets in the industry are being slashed by government,’ he added. Garrett also pointed out that the situation around residential land supply is also stifling new home building. It is important that federal and state governments ease the bureaucracy around the release and development of land for new housing. This will help ensure that strong dwelling price pressures do not emerge again in future,’ said Garrett. ABS figures also show that new home lending reached a fresh high for the cycle in the September 2014 quarter, reaching its highest level in 20 years. But Harley Dale, HIA chief economist, said that the aggregate number of loans for first home buyers is still very low from a historical perspective. ‘Policy reform is vital to turning this situation around and needs to be aimed at the excessive and inefficient taxes and regulation levied on housing. First home buyer loans reached conspicuous troughs in the early months of 2011, 2013, and 2014, although these levels were 12% higher than the record low in the early 1990’s recession. Loan numbers have only lifted by 5.1% from this latest 2014 trough,’ he explained. The total number… Continue reading

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Research reveals how UK home owners are switching mortgage deals

Some 18% of borrowers in the UK have changed their mortgage details or come to a new arrangement with their lender in the last three years, new research has found. Meanwhile, one in 12 have moved to an interest only mortgage and the same number have extended their mortgage term, meaning they could end up paying more, according to the research by Ocean Finance. It says that despite enjoying more than five years of record low interest rates, the squeeze on real incomes over the same period has left many home owners struggling to keep on top of their monthly repayments. An interest only mortgage sees the borrower paying off the interest on the loan every month, but not repaying any of the capital, which makes the monthly repayments cheaper. However, this means that at the end of the term they do not own the property and will need to find a lump sum to repay the debt, perhaps by selling their home. Extending the term of a mortgage might mean extending the period of time they have to repay the loan from an initial 25 years to as much as 40 years. While this means they should pay less each month, it is likely to see them paying more overall due to the interest they will continue to be charged over the extended period of the mortgage. The firm points out that a longer mortgage term may also mean people have to rethink their future plans, such as working later in life to continue repaying their mortgage, rather than retiring. The research also found that 3.8% of home owners revealed they had agreed with their lender to make temporary lower payments. Meanwhile, 2.3% of home owners surveyed said they were taking a temporary holiday from making payments. ‘While repossession figures have been low, this has masked the real struggle that many borrowers have had to keep paying their mortgage. As incomes have been squeezed over the past few years, one in six borrowers has had to find a way to reduce their monthly payment,’ said Ian Williams, spokesman for Ocean Finance. ‘Switching to an interest only mortgage or extending the term are both being used as a way to lower repayments. While both of these can help provide short term relief and may serve to keep the roof over people’s heads, it may be that this is simply storing up problems for the future,’ he pointed out. ‘In addition, with the Bank of England currently predicting that it expects to start to raise the base rate of interest in the middle of next year, more home owners may find that they start to struggle, especially if they are still on a standard variable rate or tracker mortgage,’ he explained. ‘It might therefore be worth their while speaking to their existing lender or a mortgage broker about whether they could benefit from switching to a new mortgage now,’ he added. Continue reading

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UK and US buyers returning to the Italian property market

UK and US buyers are increasingly seeking properties in Italy as the challenging market conditions and currency shifts makes buying a second home even more attractive. According to Rupert Fawcett, a partner in Knight Frank’s Italian team the food, culture, wine and architecture and lifestyle in the country continues to attract overseas buyers. Italy may be still struggling to shake off the Eurozone debt crisis but with the euro significantly weaker against key currencies than a year ago there are deals to be found. ‘Italy continues to face challenging market conditions with Europe again coming under the spotlight recently over its muted economic growth and with some of Italy’s banks faring badly in the latest stress tests,’ said Fawcett. ‘But la dolce vita remains a permanent feature and continues to draw buyers wanting a slice of Italian life. Buying in Italy is primarily a lifestyle choice not driven by short term investment, but longer term enjoyment, and these factors continue to allow the market a certain level of resilience,’ he explained. He has noted increased interest this year in city living with an upturn in enquiries for Rome, Venice, Milan and Florence. ‘Rome has returned positive growth in the last quarter for the first time in several years, Venice is showing increases at the upper end and all cities have seen increased sales activity. We expect prices to remain stable in these locations over the next year, but we do not expect any price increases for at least the next few years,’ he added. In other areas there continues to be pressure on prices due in part to the availability of a large amount of stock which means buyers tend to deliberate for longer when searching for the perfect property. However, Fawcett said correctly priced properties in the best locations are finding good interest and, in some cases, multiple offers. Where vendors remain reluctant to reduce prices buyers are often not even enquiring let alone viewing. There has been a decline in interest from Russian buyers but both British and US buyers are returning to the Italian real estate market. There are fewer Russians at the upper end of the market around the €5 million plus mark and most notably around parts of Sardinia and coastal Tuscany, but there has been an increase in Russian interest at lower price points especially in Liguria. The influence of British and US buyers has also increased as both the pound and dollar strengthen against the euro. British buyers favour properties in Tuscany, Florence and Umbria as well as the Italian Lakes, Rome and Sardinia while US buyers favour properties in the Italian Lakes, Rome and Sardinia. French buyers are number one in Venice and also showing a lot of interest in property in Liguria and Rome. Germany buyers can be found in the Italian Lakes and Umbria while Scandinavian buyers favour Sardinia. For Dutch buyers Liguria, Venice, Tuscany, Florence and Umbria are the most popular. Fawcett pointed out that Milan will host the… Continue reading

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