Tag Archives: housing
UK house price growth set to slow in 2016, latest outlook report suggests
House prices in the UK are expected to see growth slow to 4% to 6% due to the increasing difficulty in getting on the housing ladder, together with the prospect of an interest rate rise, according to a new report. The forecast from lender the Halifax comes after a year when activity levels have remained modest by historical standards. A shortage of supply is likely to continue to act as a significant constraint on activity in 2016, it says in its outlook report. Price growth is expected to slow more sharply in London than elsewhere but all regions are expected to experience price rises in 2016 which will be broadly in line with income growth. The report points out that levels of house building remain low, but improvements are expected over the medium term and this would help to bring demand and supply into better balance, helping to constrain upward pressure on house prices. ‘There is little reason to expect any fundamental shift in the key market drivers in the immediate future. As a result, the substantial imbalance between supply and demand is likely to persist, maintaining upward pressure on house prices in 2016,’ said Halifax’s housing economist, Martin Ellis. ‘On average, UK house prices look expensive compared to incomes but valuations are supported by the low levels of property for sale, low levels of house building, and exceptionally low interest rates,’ he explained. ‘Nonetheless, with house prices continuing to increase more quickly than average earnings, it is increasingly difficult to get on the housing ladder. This ongoing development, combined with the growing prospect of an interest rate rise, should start to put the brakes on house price growth during the course of 2016,’ he pointed out. ‘A continuing shortage of supply is likely to continue to act as a significant constraint on activity over the coming year. Sales in 2016 are expected to be modestly higher than this year, but to remain well below the peak of 1.6 million in 2006,’ he added. The report points out that house price growth has been robust throughout 2015. The quarterly rate of increase was 2.8% in October, according to the latest figures, a little above the 2.5% average over the first nine months of the year. The annual rate stood at 9.7% in October, the highest annual rate since August 2014 when it was 9.7%, with the annual rate in a narrow band between 8% and 10% all year. ‘Improving economic conditions with continuing growth and rising employment and strengthening household finances, assisted by increasing real earnings for the first time for several years, have boosted housing demand during 2015. This has been supported further by very low mortgage rates which have fallen over the year,’ Ellis explained. ‘Strengthening demand has combined with very low supply, both in terms of new build and second hand properties for sale, to drive strong underlying house price growth. New instructions by home sellers declined in October for the ninth… Continue reading
House prices up 0.1% in the UK in November, latest growth index shows
House prices across the UK increased by 0.1% in November but softened slightly year on year with annual growth of 3.7%, down from 3.9% in October. The latest data from lender the Nationwide shows it was the weakest performance in monthly price growth since June 2015. The latest increase takes the average house price to £196,807. But Nationwide chief economist Robert Gardner pointed out that growth rates have fluctuated throughout the year. Annual growth has been in a fairly narrow range between 3% and 4% over the past six months, which he said is broadly consistent with earnings growth over the longer term. ‘While this bodes well for a sustainable increase in housing market activity in the period ahead, much will depend on whether building activity can keep pace with increasing demand. Surveyors have continued to report a dearth of properties on the market in recent months, with the number of available homes reportedly at the lowest level since the late 1970s,’ said Gardner. ‘Therefore it is positive that policymakers are focusing on the need to increase home building, with the Chancellor announcing a range of measures aimed at boosting housing supply in his Autumn Statement,’ he explained. ‘The current rate of construction activity is well below the projected rate of household formation. Only 135,000 new homes were built in England in the 12 months to September 2015, well below the 220,000 new households that are projected to form each year over the next decade,’ he added. Neal Hudson, associate director at Savills research, described the figures as showing a relatively strong end to the year. ‘Previous trends suggest that prices tend to weaken in December and so the 4.1% total growth seen in the year to date may be closer to 4% by the end of the year. These price rises are in a large part due to increased competition in the mortgage market which have led to record low mortgage rates and record high lending multiples,’ he added. According to Alex Gosling, chief executive officer of online estate agents HouseSimple, the main issue in today’s market is that demand continues to massively outstripping supply. ‘We have an immediate supply crisis in the UK and it's hard to see how home builders can build houses fast enough to free up the demand supply bottleneck,’ he said. ‘We need measures to stimulate the housing market and it can't be just about building more homes to meet demand in the future. Sellers need to be encouraged back to the market. But home owners are finding it harder to climb up the property ladder, which means people are renovating and extending rather than moving,’ he pointed out. ‘High prices remain a barrier for first time buyers but also second and third steppers and price growth is unlikely to cool in the coming months, especially with more investors expected to come to the market to buy before the new buy to let stamp duty rates come into… Continue reading
UK govt announces details of £7 billion house building priority programme
The UK government has announced a £7 billion programme to make house building a priority which includes more than 400,000 affordable homes. Chancellor George Osborne called it the biggest affordable housing programme since the 1970s when he made the announcement as part of his Autumn financial statement. It will include £2.3 billion paid directly to developers to build 200,000 starter homes aimed at first time buyers. They will be offered at a 20% discount on prices up to £450,000 in London and £250,000 across the rest of the country. He also announced £200 million for 10,000 new homes that tenants can live in for five years at reduced rents while they save for a deposit. They will then have the first right to buy the home. Then there will be £400 million to help build 8,000 specialist homes for older people or those with disabilities, the Chancellor also confirmed. But not all of this is new. The starter homes package has already been flagged up and it is well known that the government wants to build millions of home in the next five years. Nevertheless the programme has been widely welcomed, although concerns have been expressed about the focus on home for sale, although the new homes that tenants can buy after five years will also be welcomed. Among those concerned about the lack of help for the rented sector is Adam Challis, head of residential Research at JLL. ‘The Chancellor's support for 400,000 new affordable homes is welcomed at a time when there is a dire need to expand housing construction right across the country,’ he said. ‘This Government's narrow focus on home ownership is a serious concern however. Support for the private rented sector and social housing is vital to protect the financial stability of millions of households, for whom ownership is beyond reach,’ he pointed out. ‘The private rented sector is the fastest growing tenure in the UK and deserves direct support through the planning system and through the release of public land. Social housing investment provides vital security to more vulnerable households, while also reducing the heavy current reliance on temporary accommodation,’ he explained. ‘Housing delivery desperately needs long term planning rather than short term interventions. They are disruptive to construction programmes and ultimately weaken the system of delivery. Housing should be viewed as infrastructure that protects household stability and supports economic growth,’ he added. Developers will welcome the announcement by the Government of funding for new housing including starter and shared ownership homes, according to Claire Fallows, partner at Charles Russell Speechlys. ‘Questions remain, however, as to whether local authorities will continue to insist on the provision of social and affordable rented units on larger housing sites and, if so, whether Housing Associations will have the funding available to acquire those units. Flexibility by authorities will be required to ensure that housing delivery is not stalled,’ she said. Continue reading
