Tag Archives: housing
New home sales pick up in Australia, but peak of growth has passed
Sales of new homes in Australia increased in August following a weak July but an overall downward trend in total seasonally adjusted new home sales is still apparent, the latest data shows. There was an increase of 3.3% in August driven primarily by a strong increase in the usually volatile multi-unit sector, the new home sales report from the Housing Industry Association shows. However the report, which covers Australia’s largest volume builders, says that despite the August bounce, the HIA still believes that new home sales reached their peak for the cycle back in April this year.” ‘The result for August was driven primarily by a strong lift the multi units sector where sales increased by 19.8%, taking this component of sales to its second highest level this cycle,’ said HIA economist Diwa Hopkins. She pointed out that new detached house sales didn’t fare quite so well, up by only 0.5% although this slight rise stopped a decline which stretched to three consecutive months. ‘As leading indicators of new home construction activity, both HIA New Home Sales and ABS Building Approvals are displaying a moderate downward trend. Current levels remain elevated by a historical standard, which is consistent with still healthy levels of new home building throughout 2014/2015,’ she explained. ‘It is important for the new home building sector and the broader domestic economy that we continue to see evidence of historically high levels of building approvals and new home sales throughout 2014 and into next year, even if the peak for these indicators has passed,’ she added. A breakdown of the figures show that detached house sales increased by 11.1% in New South Wales and by 2% in Western Australia but fell by 6.8% in South Australia, by 6% in Victoria and by 0.7% in Queensland. Over the three months to August 2014 detached house sales decreased in each of the surveyed states, albeit to varying degrees, with the exception of New South Wales where sales increased by 0.4%. Sales fell by 9.8% in Victoria, by 4.6% in Western Australia, by 4.4% in South Australia, and by 3.2% in Queensland. Continue reading
US residential property price growth moderates for eleventh month in a row
Residential real estate prices saw moderating price growth for an eleventh month in a row, according to the latest figures from property data provider Clear Capital. Nationally, yearly gains decreased from a high of 11.7% in October 2013 to just 7.8% through September 2014. This trend is amplified in the West, where annual gains are cut nearly in half, from highs of 19.5% in October 2013 to 10.9% in September 2014. The firm said that if the ongoing moderation in the West, still the recovery leader, continues at its current pace it will be a foreboding sign of future declines but added that metro market trends will continue to keep buyers on their toes, as national and regional recoveries wane at varying velocities. For example, in Detroit discounted opportunities helped push prices up 21.9% year on year in September. Meanwhile the Hartford MSA saw declines of 1.1% over the quarter and 0.4% over the year, highlighting the type of market performance disparity that characterises the present market. The data also shows that each of the lowest performing 15 markets posted less than a 1% gain over the last quarter. This group remains subject to short term declines which could eventually turn into yearly losses. The report also shows that discounted distressed deals continue to dry up, down from a national high of 38.4% in 2011 to just 16.5% in September 2014. While this is generally a positive sign, Clear Capital points out that distressed sales helped drive the investor demand that kick started the recovery. ‘Historically, we’ve observed rising prices as distressed saturation declined. While reduction of distressed saturation is a healthy move for markets long term, over the short term it removes a key demand segment at a time when full buyer momentum has yet to be established,’ the report explains. It adds that the correlation between drastic declines in price gains and declines in distressed saturation is most visible in the West. Distressed saturation was at an all-time high of 50.5% in 2009 falling to just 12.6% in September 2014. As distressed saturation fell, so did price gains. Yearly price gains in the West have fallen to 10.9%. This nearly 50% drop in price gains since October 2013 is in sync with declines in distressed saturation. Clear Capital also says that future home price gains are more dependent on owner occupied purchases as the rising price floor and dwindling discounted deals leave investors with fewer opportunities and owner occupied demand is in part driven by consumer sentiment, among other key drivers, like jobs. While consumer sentiment levels reached a 14 month high in September, according to the University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment index, momentum has tempered like home prices. Consumer sentiment yearly growth rates have softened 7% over the last seven months. Each of the last two times consumer sentiment rates have seen negative yearly changes, prices have declined. As housing seeks stability, moderating rates of consumer confidence and price gains foreshadow a third potential dip. ‘Heading into… Continue reading
Property prices in England and Wales up just 0.5% in September
In many regions in England and Wales average property prices have yet to reach levels before the economic downturn and price growth is slowing, the latest index shows. House prices increased by just 0.5% in September, taking the average price to £275,820, the smallest monthly increase this year, according to the LSL house price index. On an annual basis prices are up 10.6% but when London and the South East is excluded from the calculation prices are up just 4.5% and overall prices are up just 2% a year since the crisis. For six regions of the UK, average property prices achieved on completion are yet to match their pre-crisis score and a North/South divide in the remains evident. The North has the furthest ground to travel, with average prices still 8.3%, or £13,400, below their housing boom high in March 2008. However, average house prices on sales completion in the South West set a new record in August, surpassing their October 2007 peak for the first time. This makes it the fourth region after London, the South East and East Anglia to scramble out from under the shadow of the financial crisis. Areas further afield like Warwickshire, Northamptonshire, and York are breaking cover too, with prices also towering to new heights. David Newnes, director of Reeds Rains and Your Move estate agents, pointed out that the London property scene is on a different scale to the rest of the country. Overall, the capital has seen the strongest housing market recovery, with prices having now grown 47.3% from their previous peak in February 2008. However, the rate of annual house price inflation in the capital eased off by 0.1% in August, as we see growth relaxing into a slower tempo from the heady pulse earlier this year. ‘Across all of England and Wales, house prices have risen on average by 2% every year in the aftermath of 2007/2008 housing boom and bust. But this growth falls short of the 2.8% annual increase in CPIH over the same period meaning it is only home owners in London who have seen their properties climb in value in real tangible terms,’ said Newnes. ‘September saw the lowest monthly increase in property prices in 2014 so far, as a new spell of market adjustment sets in for the autumn. But while price growth dulls, activity in the market is still vibrant, and total house sales completions are up 16% year on year in September,’ he explained. ‘First time buyers have been bringing much of the vitality and optimism to the party. Over the three months from June to August, the sale of flats, typically the preserve of new buyers making their inaugural property purchase, has risen 26% when compared to the same period in 2013,’ he pointed out. ‘While the market adapts to a mellower beat, schemes like Help to Buy and an accessible lending environment are essential to ensure that confidence isn’t silenced, and activity continues to sing,’ he added. Continue reading
