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England and Wales house prices break new record, even as monthly growth falters
House prices in England and Wales increase £16,446 annually to £290,640, a 6% increase on November last year, according to the latest index figures. But the monthly rate of house price growth fell to 0.6%, slower than the 0.9% monthly uplift seen in October, the data from the Your Move index also shows. Excluding London and the South East, the annual rate of change drops to 4.4% but the capital is not seeing the strongest growth. While the South East overtook East Anglia as the region with the fastest growth in house prices, London dropped to fourth. The index also shows that home sales fell 15% in November, with completed sales for the year still 3.4% behind the same point in 2014. It is predicted that the Stamp Duty 3% surcharge on second homes and buy to let buyers may cause a late winter surge as these kind of buyers hurry to beat the April 2016 deadline for the new higher rate. Adrian Gill, director of Reeds Rains and Your Move estate agents, pointed out that despite being within grasping distance of the £300,000 mark, it may be a few months yet before average prices reach this symbolic level. He also pointed out that house prices in the South East have risen by an average of 7.1% this month, with values increasing in every local authority in the area. ‘It appears that the double digit price rises first seen in the prime London market, then the other London boroughs, are now rippling out even further to London’s commuter towns, with house prices in Reading rising by 18.3% and Luton increasing 17.3%,’ he explained. He believes that the housing market will need a Christmas boost to sales to beat last year’s figures. And the Chancellor’s changes could be the gift required. ‘House prices soared in the five months following Nigel Lawson’s withdrawal of the multiple mortgage tax relief in 1988,’ said Gill. ‘More recently in Scotland, after the Land and Buildings Transaction Tax was announced there was also a surge in the sales of high end properties to beat the deadline. England and Wales may now feel the same forces, as there will be a growth in demand from both first time buyers with extra financial support and buy to let landlords hoping to invest before the tax changes come into force,’ he explained. ‘While the Chancellor has planned to increase the number of houses being built, none of these will be completed in the next few months. As the number of houses on the market is at an historically low level, those rushing for the April deadline will be fighting for a decreasing number of properties. So we could see a spike in both house prices and sales over the normally frosty winter period,’ he added. He said that this potential surge in demand could be most obvious in places like Salcombe, Devon. The town has the highest percentage of second homes in England. In… Continue reading
Home lending in UK up by 8.5%, but some sectors seeing falls in recent months
Lending for home purchases in the UK increased by 8.5% year on year to £43.5 billion in the third quarter of 2015, according to the latest data from the Bank of England. However, the data also shows that the proportion of lending to first time buyers decreased in the quarter by 0.3% to 20.4% while the value of residential loans advanced to first time buyers increased by £0.6 billion from the third quarter of 2014 to £12.7 billion. The buy to let proportion of lending also decreased from 15.8% in the second quarter of 2015 to 15.6% in the third quarter of 2015 but increased by 1.3% from the third quarter of 2014. Advances, which include by to let remortgages, increased over the past year from £8 billion advanced in the third quarter of 2014 to £9.7 billion in the third quarter of 2015. This is the highest level of advances since the first quarter of 2009. Buy to let balances outstanding were £174 billion in the third quarter of 2015, which, at 14.5% of total residential balances is the highest proportion since the series began in 2007. The data also shows that the proportion of remortgages decreased from 26.2% in the second quarter of 2015 to 24.1% in the third quarter while the proportion of other new lending decreased from 3.6% to 3.4%. The proportion of gross advances at a loan to value (LTV) of over 90% decreased by 0.7% to 2.8% in the third quarter of 2015 while the proportion of gross advances to borrowers with a single income multiple of more than four time increased by 0.9% to 10.3%. According to Peter Rollings, chief executive officer of Marsh & Parsons, we can expect to see borrowing advance further after the Chancellor’s stimuli unveiled in the Autumn Statement. ‘With £15 billion of funding for housing measures taking prominence in his agenda, this will have given the green light to a queue of first time buyers, particularly in London, where there will be a designated Help to Buy scheme to reflect the accelerated house price growth in the capital, and the extra booster needed to help buyers onto the ladder,’ he said. ‘First time buyers have already been making tracks in the third quarter and in London we’ve seen this as part of wider demographic shift as domestic players and mortgage buyers become more prevalent in the housing market, while overseas investors take a temporary step back to digest the higher stamp duty payable on top-end purchases,’ he explained. ‘But proportionally, across the country, remortgaging activity has been taking up a larger chunk of the lending pie recently, as existing home owners try to build up their defences ahead of an expected interest rate rise in 2016. But the rankings may change in the run up to April’s stamp duty increase for second homes, and buy to let lending is likely to rev up quickly, as investors… Continue reading
Latest index shows slight dip in UK house price growth
House prices in the UK in the last three months were 1.4% higher than the previous three months, the smallest rise since December 2014, according to the latest index figures to be published. Month on month they decreased by 0.2% but are 9% higher in the three months to November than in the same three months than a year ago, taking the average price to £204,552, the data from the Halifax shows. Martin Ellis, Halifax housing economist, pointed out that the annual rate of price growth eased from 9.7% in October but said solid economic growth, rising real earnings and falls in already very low mortgage rates have combined to stimulate housing demand this year. He explained that the increasingly acute imbalance between supply and demand is causing prices to rise at a robust pace and this is a situation that is unlikely to reverse significantly in the short term. Neal Hudson, associate director at Savills research, pointed out that monthly figures can be quite volatile so it is always best to look at the longer term trends. ‘These show continued annual price growth in excess of underlying incomes, driven primarily by increased mortgage lending into the sector but compounded by relatively low levels of stock available,’ he said. ‘Short term indicators have weakened, with house price growth on a three month basis slowing, but we may well see these seasonally adjusted figures revised in coming months,’ he added. He also pointed out that the figures reflect a regular pattern in house price growth emerging over the last couple of years, with strong price growth in the first six months followed by static prices in the final six months on the year. ‘Savills expects this trend to continue next year with a national house price forecast of 5% and so the seasonally adjusted growth currently reported may well be revised upwards in coming months,’ said Hudson. Mark Posniak, managing director of Dragonfly Property Finance, also expects prices to keep rising in 2016 due to the imbalance between supply and demand. ‘The worry is that there is no concerted long term strategy for tackling supply. The lack of properties being put up for sale remains an enigma given that mortgage rates and the cost of living are so low and consumer confidence, overall, is high,’ he said. ‘Talk of imminent interest rate rises has been going on for a year or two now and it may be that people want more clarity on the speed of rate rises before they commit to a purchase. It's hard to believe that 2016 will see any change in the ongoing narrative of low supply, strong demand and rising prices,’ he explained. According to Jonathan Hopper, managing director of the buying agents Garrington Property Finders, while a halving of the pace of quarter on quarter price rises might appear dramatic given the market’s consistent growth this year, it is the first time in… Continue reading
