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2016 set to see continued record investment in UK commercial property markets
The next 12 months is set to be another year of strong returns for investors in the UK’s commercial property sector with investment volumes expected to be as strong as 2015 which was a record year. The latest forecast from global real estate advisor CBRE suggests that total investment in UK commercial property will be around £70 billion in 2016 and the firm predicts attractive total returns of around 10.1%, declining thereafter but remaining positive through to 2020. The report explains that as capital value growth slows, income will become the most important driver of returns. A strong economy and an increasing role in e-commerce suggests that the industrial property market will outperform with total returns of 9.5% pa on average for each of the next five years. Retail property is expected to experience happier times as consumer disposable incomes recover, with returns of 7.0%, while recovering supply in the office market will constrain total returns to 7.4% on average each year to 2020. It also points out that foreign investment has long been one of the main drivers of the central London market and while this rose further in 2012/2013 it levelled out at around 70% of all central London investment in 2014/2015. In contrast, foreign investment has not historically been a significant part of the UK market outside central London, making up only around 20% of acquisitions. However, in recent years foreign investment outside London has increased. Indeed, in 2015 so far some 32% of transactions by value outside London have attracted foreign buyers from 31 different countries, a noticeable increase in the diversity of investors. Looking ahead the firm says that the origins of foreign capital will also change. Asian investment inflows have been higher than the 10 year average, with countries like Singapore and Taiwan becoming more important. Meanwhile, European and US investors have withdrawn a little over the last year, potentially due to a recovery in Europe promising relatively better value than the UK. Increasingly, Middle East investment is coming from private wealth rather than sovereign wealth, given the latter is suffering from the low oil price. ‘After several years of strong investment and capital growth, 2016 will offer steadier and more sustainable returns for the commercial property market. The UK economy remains strong, underpinning the rental value growth which will form a much more important part of investor returns than in the last few years,’ said Miles Gibson, head of UK research at CBRE UK. ‘Overseas investment will remain strong and increasingly diversified as London maintains its status as the global centre for property investment. But we predict increasing interest in, and outperformance by, office and industrial property markets in the wider South East and other big UK cities, and a long-awaited recovery in retail,’ he added. According to Ciaran Bird, UK managing director of CBRE UK, property will continue to be a bellwether for the UK economy… Continue reading
Owning a home is still part of the American Dream, new research shows
The majority of young people renting their home still believe in the American Dream of owning their own home, according to new research from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). Although only half of surveyed households believe the economy is currently improving, nearly all young renters eventually want to buy a home and compared to earlier this year an increasing share believes their personal financial situation will improve in the months ahead. The survey data reveals that an overwhelming majority, some 94%, of current renters who are 34 years of age or younger want to own a home in the future. Overall, 83% of polled renters have a desire to own and 77% believe homeownership is part of their American Dream. Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said that the survey's findings debunk the notion that young adults aren't interested in buying a home. ‘Despite entering the workforce during or immediately after the worst of the financial and housing crisis, the desire to become a homeowner appears to be a personal goal for a convincing majority of young renters,’ he pointed out. ‘Furthermore, there appears to be sizeable, pent-up demand for buying that currently remains untapped because of a variety of economic and personal reasons impacting many households,’ he added. The top two reasons given by renters for not currently owning was the inability to afford to buy and needing the flexibility of renting rather than owning at 53% and 19% respectively. When asked what would likely be the main reason for buying in the future, renters cited lifestyle considerations such as getting married, starting a family or retiring and an improvement in their financial situation at 33% and 26%. ‘A combination of factors such as rising rents and home prices, limited supply, repaying student debt, and getting married and having children later in life has more to do with the currently underperforming share of first time buyers than the idea that buying a home is not as desirable as it used to be,’ Yun explained. Despite uncertainty about the economy's current performance, at least 84% of all households within all surveyed age groups and education levels believe owning a home is a good financial decision. When asked if they believe this strongly or moderately some 76% who believe it's a good decision feel strongly about it. Additionally, at least 85% of surveyed households in each age category as well as across all education levels believe home ownership is part of their personal American Dream. The most appealing aspects of homeownership cited by those with this feeling include a place to raise a family, owning their own place and a nest egg for retirement at 36%, 26% and 14% respectively. NAR's survey found that more home owners than renters during the polling period believe that it's a good time to buy a home at 82% compared to 68%. Furthermore, of those who thought it was a good time to buy, 645 felt strongly about buying. Among… Continue reading
Prime property values in London could see 3% growth in 2016
Prime property values in London are set to see modest 3% growth throughout 2016 but the fringes of the capital are expected to see much faster price rises of 5% or higher, a new forecast suggests. The market below £1.5 million is predicted o be the main driver of price growth in the coming year, as Stamp Duty continues to take the shine off the wealthiest segment of the London property market, according to the report from agents Marsh & Parson. Tooting and Queen’s Park are named in the report as the locations to watch in the coming year and agents are expecting an influx of buyers in January as the new year markets gets up to speed quickly. As a result, the popularity of more affordable and emerging locations is boosting activity and prices in these areas above levels seen elsewhere across the capital, the report explains. It points out that with direct transport links into Bank on the Northern line, and a leafy common on the doorstep, buyer demand has quickly spread from Balham to neighbouring Tooting. And in the North West, Queen’s Park is providing a credible ‘next step’ for those priced out of North Kensington and Little Venice, and is well serviced by the underground and over ground rail connections directly into Euston. With a top rate of Stamp Duty of 12% now in place, the highest tiers of the London property market have been severely tempered in recent months as buyers struggle to absorb the additional transaction levy. The report also shows that total prime London property sales dropped between the second half of 2014 and the first six months of 2015 and it is sales above £937,000, the threshold at which the higher Stamp Duty charges apply, which have seen the sharpest fall of all. In 2015, some 59% of London property sales have been for homes below the £937,000 marker, while purchases above this price threshold account for 41%, as the top of the market slows. In 2016 sellers will have to adjust their price expectations to make their properties more competitive and attractive. But properties that are priced realistically will still sell well, and quickly. At the start of this year, London homes for sale were typically achieving 95% of their asking prices, but this has climbed throughout the year to stand at 97% as of November 2015. ‘The Chancellor’s Stamp Duty changes have certainly dulled the London housing market of late, and whilst 2016 will see a return to growth it will be rather lacklustre. There now exists a fundamental unevenness between sellers who want to sell their properties at the prices they were at six months ago and buyers, who are seeking recompense for the increased Stamp Duty levelled at them,’ said Peter Rollings, chief executive officer of Marsh & Parsons. ‘It’s already started but it’s going to take a while… Continue reading
