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Majority of Australians feel the housing market is heading for a downturn
Two thirds of Australians now think the housing market is vulnerable to a sustainable downturn with the sentiment affecting all regions of the country, a new poll shows. While the survey results suggests that respondents are concerned about a crash in home values, this remains unchanged from a year ago, and lower than the 68% of respondents who indicated ‘yes’ to this question six months ago. The higher proportion of respondents who were concerned about a large correction in the housing market was broad with all regions indicating at least 61% of respondents were concerned about a housing market crash, according to the CoreLogic-TEG housing market sentiment survey. The result indicates that a significant proportion of the community are wary of substantial value falls across the nation’s largest and most important asset class, which according to CoreLogic RP Data is currently worth an estimated $6.5 trillion. Recent housing market forecasts from CoreLogic RP Data and Moody’s Analytics indicate dwelling values are likely to experience falls, however the peak to trough declines are likely to be short lived and relatively slight, followed by a longer period of relatively sedate housing market conditions. Home values are already trending lower in Perth and Darwin with both cities recording a peak to current fall of 4.6%. Additionally, the pace of capital gains in Sydney and Melbourne, where dwelling values have surged higher over the past two growth cycles, is moderating in what has been a controlled trajectory to date. The survey also revealed a slowdown in the proportion of survey respondents who think now is a good time to buy; 61% indicated they would consider buying a home, however a year ago the reading was much higher at 71%. Perceptions around buying conditions worsened across most regions over the past 12 months, with Tasmanian and Sydney buyers the most pessimistic about buying conditions. Only 40% and 50% of respective respondents in these cities indicated they felt it was a good time to buy. However, buying sentiment improved over the past year in some of the weakest markets where listing numbers are higher and housing prices have reduced. The proportion of survey respondents who indicated that current market conditions represent a good time to buy increased by 1% over the year in Perth while buyer sentiment in the Northern Territory increased by a substantial 20% compared with a year ago. When survey respondents were asked whether they thought home values would rise, fall or remain stable over the coming six and 12 months, most respondents expect values to remain stable, however 17% of respondents are expecting values to fall over both the next six and 12 months. A year ago, 49% of survey respondents were expecting dwelling values to rise over the coming six months compared with only 31% over the most recent quarter. Respondents based in Sydney have seen the most substantial deterioration in the proportion expecting values to rise over the next half year. A year ago,… Continue reading
Rents up by an average of 3% across England and Wales year on year
Rents in England and Wales have increased by an average of 3% over the last year to £791 per month, according to the latest buy to let index. Record rents were recorded in the Midlands while rents fell in Wales and the North East, the data from the Your Move and Reeds Rains index also shows. On a monthly basis March was a relatively subdued month, with the level of average rents the same as was seen in February. Month on month rent growth has dipped marginally from 0.1% between January and February 2016 to a flat 0% between February and March 2016. Leading the whole of England & Wales, rents in the East Midlands now stand 8.5% higher than in March last year, at an all-time record high of £613 per month. This is followed closely by the West Midlands with 6.7% annual rent rises, taking the average rent in the West Midlands region to a separate all-time record of £597 per month. London is in third place in terms of annual rent rises, up 4.6% from the same point last year. However at £1,231 the capital’s average monthly rent remains below the all-time record of £1,301 set six months ago in September 2015. At the other end of the spectrum Wales and the North East are host to annual rent falls, both dropping by 2.2% since March last year. This takes rents in Wales to £551 per month and rents in the North East to £507 per month in March 2016. On a monthly basis the East Midlands matches the South East with a 0.7% month-on-month rise in rents, followed by the East of England where rents have risen by 0.6% between February and March. Meanwhile, taking into account both rental income and capital growth, but before property specific costs such as maintenance, the average existing landlord in England and Wales has seen total returns rise to 12.2% over the 12 months to March. The index points out that this is a clear jump from 10.7% seen a month before, over the 12 months to February, and is also the fastest annual rate of return for existing landlords seen since November 2014, when the same measure last reached 12.3%. In absolute terms this means that the average landlord in England and Wales has seen a return of £22,135 over the last year before any deductions such as property maintenance and mortgage payments. Of this, the average capital gain contributed £13,494 while rental income made up £8,641 over the 12 months to March. While a recent surge in capital values has boosted total returns for existing landlords, the same trend has suppressed rental yields for those aspiring to become landlords, or looking to grow their property portfolio,’ the report points out. As rents rise alongside property prices, rental yields are proving relatively resistant to rising purchase prices. However the gross yield on a typical rental property in England and Wales, before taking into account factors… Continue reading
UK equity release market sees record start to the year
The equity release market in the UK has seen a record start to 2016 with lending reaching £393.9 million, the highest for a first quarter on record. This kind of lending is now up 21% compared with last year and new equity release plans have reached over 5,000 for the first time since 2009, the data from the Equity Release Council also shows. This year is the 25th anniversary of the first industry standards being developed for equity release and now drawdown popularity is continuing to increase its market share. With new loans rising, they have now reached the highest amount ever recorded as home owners make use of their housing wealth to supplement their monthly income, make home improvements, support younger family members with buying a property or pay for the trip of a lifetime. The data also shows that the market share of drawdown lifetime mortgages products has increased slightly year on year and it remains the most popular product. The value of drawdown products accounted for 60% of all loans, while the volume of loans was 67%, up 1% and 2% respectively from the first quarter of 2015. There were 3,450 drawdown loans agreed in the first three months of 2016, up 9% on the same period in 2015. Their value was £234.5 million, up by 22% in the same period. The value of lump sum mortgages accounted for 40% of total lending in the first quarter and 33% of the total volume of loans. The value of lump sum mortgages was £158.8 million, up 19% from the first quarter of 2015 and the value of home reversion plans sold remains less than 1% of the market. ‘These latest figures represent a strong start to the year for the equity release market, and place housing wealth centre stage in financial planning for later life. In a year that marks the milestone of 25 years of safe equity release, the market is continuing to build on the momentum of recent years,’ said Nigel Waterson, chairman of the Equity Release Council. ‘The recent decision from the Financial Conduct Authority to reduce affordability assessments for Lifetime Mortgages is a positive development that will help more people benefit from all that equity release has to offer. For a generation that are often asset rich and cash poor, their home is likely to be their greatest asset and should form part of everyone's planning for retirement,’ he pointed out. ‘As we look forward to the next 25 years, it is important now to maintain expert adviser support for customers as the sector grows, as well as continuing to innovate to satisfy customer demand, all the while preserving standards and consumer protections,’ he added. According to Alice Watson, product and communications manager at Retirement Advantage Equity Release, the figures highlight more clearly than ever how equity release is now an integral part of financial planning for retirees across the UK. 'The sector is… Continue reading
