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Chancellor warns property prices will take a big hit if UK leaves EU
Leaving the European Union would hit the UK residential property market with prices likely to be hit significantly and make mortgages more expensive, according to the Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne. Speaking on national television, he warned that if there is a Brexit, the term used to describe the country leaving the EU, then the values of homes will fall. He also revealed that the Treasury is about to publish a major piece of research on how Brexit would affect that UK economy and that one major issue that emerges is the effect on real estate, ‘You will see the analysis we will do, but I’m pretty clear that there will be a significant hit to the value of people’s homes and to the costs of mortgages. That is one example of the kind of impact, economic impact, that we get from leaving the EU,’ he said on of ITV’s Peston on Sunday politics programme. He has spoken out as the campaigning ahead of the EU referendum on 23 June hots up. The polls have been neck and neck but at the beginning of May an ICM poll put the leave camp slightly ahead at 45% compared to 44% for remain. The warning from Osborne comes as prices have started to ease slightly. The latest Halifax index, just published, shows prices fell by 0.8% in April. The market has been looking healthy recently with data from HMRC showing that sales have risen dramatically from 116,930 in February to 165,480 in March, the highest monthly total since records began in April 2005. While sales in the first three months of 2016 were 32% higher than in the same period last year, much of both the monthly and annual increases is likely to be attributable to a rush to beat the new stamp duty tax rates for buy to let and second homes in April. On top of this the volume of mortgage approvals for house purchases, a leading indicator of completed house sales fell by 2.5% between February and March. This suggests that the number of new buyers seeking to complete ahead of the stamp-duty surcharge had already begun to ease. Approvals, however, were still 15% higher than in March 2015, according to Bank of England, seasonally adjusted figures. Meanwhile, supply remains historically low. New instructions by home sellers fell marginally in March following three consecutive monthly increases. Market conditions remain very tight with stock levels nearly 20% lower than a year ago, at a near historical low, the most up to date monthly report from the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) shows. Continue reading
Smaller prime properties in London commuter belt set to see strongest rental growth
Smaller properties in prime markets in the commuter belt around London continue to see the strongest rental growth in the first quarter of 2016, according to a new research report. There is such strong demand for smaller properties because tenants are faced with the issue of raising the deposit for their first mortgage,’ says the report from real estate firm Savills. It points out that landlords have been hit with a number of measures introduced by the current government in an attempt to limit future investment in the residential sector and Savills expects that these measures to limit the amount of stock which comes onto the rental market, underpinning the growth in rents for existing investors. Rental values of prime property in the commuter zone increased by an average of 1.4% over the year to March 2016 to bring five year rental growth up to 7.6%, reflecting the continuation of modest but consistent rental growth in the period since the middle of June 2012. The figures from the report show that the average rent for one or two bedroom homes is up 2.5% year on year, for three bedrooms it is up 2.8%, for four bedroom up 1.6%, or five bedrooms up 0.9% and for six bedrooms or more up 0.5%. This brings growth over five years to 12.3% for one or two bedroom prime properties, 12.3% for three bedrooms, 9% for four bedrooms, 5.5% for five bedrooms and 4% for six bedrooms or more. The report suggests that the strength in demand for one and two bedroom accommodation reflects the age profile of the tenants in this sector with one third of tenants being in their 20s and a further 35% in their 30s and their personal and financial circumstances. ‘Such tenants face well documented issues in raising the deposit for their first mortgage but are also increasingly attracted by the flexibility of renting given an increasing propensity to move jobs in the first half of their working life,’ said Lucian Cook, director of Savills residential research. ‘With such tenants renting for longer life stages, this has fed into more demand for small family accommodation for tenants in their thirties and early forties,’ he added. He pointed out that markets for these smaller properties are generally serviced by landlords with a strong investment motive for the purchase and ownership of their rental property. By contrast, Landlords of larger prime rental properties are more likely to be letting out a dwelling which has previously been their main residence. ‘Our research shows that 39% of Landlords of properties of five bedrooms or more are letting their property out because either they are relocating for employment purposes or are unable to sell their main home. Landlords of such properties have only seen rents rise by a net figure of 4% over the past five years, and a meagre 0.5% in the past 12 months,’ Cook explained. He also pointed out that going forward, all landlords will have… Continue reading
Housing market activity in the UK striding forward, latest research suggests
A surge in remortgaging has driven the UK housing market to make great strides forward on a long term basis, according to new research. This has mitigated the historic steadying that occurs in the month of April and the total number of valuations carried out increased 24% year on year, the figures from Connells Survey & Valuation show. The firm points out that this counteracts the 22% short term downturn that occurred in the market as a whole between March and April. Every year since 2013, April has seen a decline in valuation volumes on a monthly basis. For example, between March and April 2015, overall valuation activity declined by 32%, some 10% greater than the fall experienced over the same period in 2016. According to John Bagshaw, the firm’s corporate services director the property market is experiencing some vibrant long term growth regardless of any short term indicators. ‘The monthly downturn the valuation sector has experienced overall is a reflection of an historic trend which sees housing activity typically sink somewhat after a New Year surge,’ he said. ‘However, this year’s dip has not been as protracted as that of previous years’, a sign the property market is becoming robust enough to endure these cyclical market forces. The longer term picture is even more positive. As house prices continue to rise and interest rates remain at record lows, ever more people will be drawn to the property ladder,’ he added. The monthly report also shows that activity in the remortgaging and first time buyer sectors has been the key driver of annual growth in April’s valuation market. The remortgaging sector saw the strongest annual uplift of 50% between April 2015 and April 2016, while valuations carried out for first time buyers grew by 46% on a yearly basis. However, remortgaging valuation volumes in April also contracted by a quarter on a monthly basis. Similarly, valuations carried out for first time buyers fell by 15% month on month. But Bagshaw pointed out that while the remortgage and first time buyer sectors have still been somewhat affected by the seasonal slowdown, this has been more than counterbalanced by their performances over a 12 months basis. ‘Remortgagors continue to take courage from the rock bottom interest rate, a rate which has spurred many home owners to either switch mortgages for a cheaper rate or release the capital on their home,’ he said. ‘Equally, the political and economic momentum seems to be firmly with first time buyers. They are currently basking in a range of government assistance packages, including a recently extended Help to Buy scheme, as well as enjoying a confident lending market as evidenced by new Barclays 0% deposit mortgage,’ he explained. ‘The sum total of these schemes has transformed a once cautious sector into one of the most vibrant in the property market and there are few signs of that changing… Continue reading
