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Economic uncertainty affecting home lending in the UK
House purchase approvals in the UK fell 19.4% month on month in April and were down 14.9% compared to a year ago largely due to economic uncertainty within the lending market, new research suggests. However, the proportion of small deposit lending climbed to 19.1%, up from 17.1% in March as first time buyer borrowing began to fill the gap left by the buy to let sector as April saw a slowdown in house purchase approvals, according to the latest Mortgage Monitor from chartered surveyors e.surv. The reports says that economic uncertainty is playing a role in this drop, as is the new tax regime for buy to let purchases which saw a surcharge of 3% introduced on additional homes at the beginning of April. ‘The mortgage market is entering a more turbulent phase. As lenders steer for safety, three different forces are at work. First and foremost are the effects of the looming European Union referendum on confidence and certainty for the UK. Whichever way the result, financial markets could see rapid shifts in the days and weeks beforehand and especially immediately afterwards,’ said Richard Sexton, director of e.surv chartered surveyors, ‘It’s crucial for lenders to manage risks in the coming months. There now looks to be completely different interest rate speculation on the horizon and all eyes will be on the Bank of England to see the next steps taken. With some calls to cut interest rates rather than raise them, lenders will have to remain even more alert to economic conditions. And slowing growth is a further sign which is adding to doubts over economic security in general,’ he explained. ‘Despite all these ongoing risks, the underlying core of the lending market appears strong enough to weather such tests. For some first time buyers, prospects are improving and despite rising house price costs, lenders remain keen to help credit worthy borrowers get on the property ladder,’ he added. The report also shows that the proportion of small deposit lending to buyers with a deposit worth 15% or less of their properties’ total value climbed in April to account for 19.1% of overall house purchase loans granted, up from 17.1% the previous month. April 2015 saw small deposit lending comprise just 16.3% of overall house purchase approvals. April saw, in absolute terms, 10,985 small deposit loans granted, down 10% from the 12,202 granted in March. However this total was just 0.3% behind the 11,018 small deposit loans approved in April 2015. The number of completed sales to first time buyers picked up considerably in March. The latest First Time Buyer Tracker from Your Move and Reeds Rains revealed that March saw 32,500 first time buyer sales, up 47.7% from 22,000 in February. Sales to first time buyers also grew on an annual basis, rising 34.9% from 24,100 in March 2015. ‘With the buy to let sector finally stepping out of the spotlight, attention is turning to the bottom of the property ladder. This… Continue reading
Demand for prime property in central London slows after stamp duty change
Demand for property in London's most prestigious locations has fallen a few weeks after a new stamp duty charge of 3% was introduced on buy to let and second homes, new research shows. Property demand in the prime central London sector is at just 10% on average, having fallen 23% since the new surcharge was introduced, according to the PCL index from fixed fee estate agent eMoov. It is now at its lowest since the firm began recording its data over a year ago in the index which records the change in supply and demand for property above £1 million across London's most prestigious areas, by monitoring the total number of properties sold in comparison to those on sale. On the run up to the stamp duty deadline eMoov found that the rush to complete had revived the capital's top end market, with demand bucking the prime central London’s downward spiral and increasing for the first time since May last year. However, it seems that this resurrection was short lived as just one month since stamp duty deadline day, demand has plummeted to its lowest level on record. In fact, just one area across the prime central London market has maintained March's upward trend of demand growth. Fitzrovia is the only locations where demand hasn't dropped or remained static since March. Year on year the area is joined by Belsize Park, Maida Vale, Primrose Hill, Holland Park and Marylebone as the only other areas to have seen a positive movement in property demand since May last year. Where current demand levels are concerned, Islington is the most in demand area at present, with demand at 21% followed by Belsize Park at 19%, Chiswick at 18%, Maida Vale at 16% and Notting Hill at 12%. At the other end, at 4%, St Johns Wood and Mayfair are not only the coldest spots in prime central London but are suffering from some of the lowest demand levels recorded. ‘It's now abundantly clear that the brief resurrection of London's prime central London market witnessed in March, was an artificial skew as many scrambled to complete a sale before April's stamp duty deadline,’ said eMoov chief executive officer Russell Quirk. ‘It seems the extra 3% levy has slowed London's top end market and this will inevitably lead to further, sizable reductions in property values,’ he added, and pointed out that other potential threats include the UK voting to leave the European Union, economic slowing in countries like Russia and China and low oil prices. Continue reading
Student property investment in UK hit record high in 2015
Investment volumes in student property in the UK reached a new record at £5.1 billion in 2015, more than doubling the previous year’s figure of £2.41 billion. It also accounted for 7.12% of total UK commercial real estate investment volumes with growth expected to continue due to strong market demands, according to the latest report from property firm Knight Frank. Indeed, Knight Frank predicts that the year-on-year rental growth witnessed in 2015 within student accommodation will continue in 2016, leading to a rental uplift of 3.5% over the year, providing a relatively secure income base for investors. ‘2015 was a bumper year in terms of transaction volumes, and whilst portfolios dominated activity, we expect to see an increase in single asset opportunities throughout 2016,’ said James Pullan, head of student property at Knight Frank. ‘We predict a rise in institutional and international investors looking to invest in a buoyant asset class as pipeline opportunities come to market and investors look to diversify their asset portfolios,’ he pointed out. ‘Despite predictions that the London development pipeline will fall, we anticipate that other UK markets will open up and that there will be a consolidation in the sector,’ he added. The report also explains that this increased momentum within the student property industry demonstrates a broader trend of a substantial shift to the alternative asset classes by investors, with purchasers now viewing specialist sectors as a resilient asset class, delivering longevity and stable income flows. The data from the firm shows that some 18% of all commercial property investment transactions in 2015 were in specialist property and Knight Frank predicts that total investment into these sectors will increase by 10% year on year to reach £14.3 billion by the end of 2016. All four core specialist sectors; hotels, healthcare, student property and automotive, saw volumes exceed their five and ten year averages in 2015. Since 2006 some £46.6 billion has been invested into these sectors, with a record £13 billion invested in 2015 alone. Continue reading
