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Confidence in UK housing market falls to lowest level for a year
After staying high and steady for the last year consumer confidence in the UK housing market has fallen to its lowest level in 12 months. According to the latest quarterly Halifax Housing Market Confidence Tracker, this dip mirrors a small fall in confidence over the outlook for the economy in the coming year. However the overall picture for house prices remains relatively robust as the difference between those who think it is a good time to buy and those who think it is a good time to sell has converged, which points to a period of fairly stable house prices. ‘In the last three years consumer confidence in the outlook for the housing market has increased significantly,’ said Craig McKinlay, mortgages director at the Halifax. ‘For the last year however, it seems to have reached a ceiling and, with speculation as the strength of the economy increasing in the last few months, confidence has fallen to its lowest level in 12 months,’ he explained. ‘However, the national figures mask big regional differences, and more than half of people in London, 55%, think the next 12 months will be a bad time to buy compared to compared to 37% of Britons overall,’ he added. A breakdown shows that regionally, those in London have the most positive outlook for the average UK property price, with 79% expecting a rise in compared to 68% overall. This is no doubt a contributing factor for London also being the only region where a greater proportion think it’ll be a bad time to buy, than those who think it’ll be a good time to buy at 55% and 33% respectively. This is the second consecutive quarter there has been a net negative figure for Londoners’ buying sentiment. The most frequently mentioned perceived barrier to buying is being able to raise enough deposit, with 57% saying this is an issue. However, this has fallen from the 63% who said this one year ago, in the third quarter of 2014. In the last three months, the proportion citing household finances as a barrier has risen eleven percentage points from 28% to 39%. Meanwhile, 19% mention concerns about interest rate rises as a barrier to buying. This is in line with the second quarter of 2014 when this figure was 18%, but higher than this time last year when it was 11%. Since the last quarter there has been a significant decrease in the proportion expecting the average UK property price to rise over the next 12 months, from 71% in the second quarter of 2014 to 68% in the third quarter. While the proportions expecting a small rise of up to 10% higher have remained stable, the proportion expecting an increase of 10% or more but less than 15% has fallen from 11% in the second quarter of the year to 9%. Continue reading
House prices in Scotland fall for first time in a year
Average house prices in Scotland fell by 0.2% in August, the first fall in a year as over half the country saw declines, the latest index shows. On an annual basis prices increased by 5.7%, taking the average house price to £164,210, the data from the LSL Property Services/Acadata index. But it was the strongest August in seven years for house sales, despite a monthly dip ahead of the independence referendum. The data also shows that new peak prices were achieved in East Lothian and Aberdeen City, while values drop in Edinburgh. ‘The powerful spell of growth cast over the Scottish property market was broken in August, as house prices fell for first time in a year,’ said Gordon Fowlis, regional managing director of Your Move. ‘At a time when property values across the rest of the UK were continuing to grow, Scotland moved against the grain and average house prices dropped across more than half the country including Edinburgh, Aberdeenshire, South Lanarkshire, East Dunbartonshire and Fife,’ he explained. He pointed out that it has been an unpredictable and momentous few months in Scotland’s history. In August, uncertainty was still rife over the outcome of the independence referendum, and this hindered the pace of activity in the housing market. Sales in August were 8% below the typical seasonal trend, as sellers shirked the market and buyers postponed purchase decisions until the dust settled. ‘This trend appears more acute at the top tiers of the market, where there were bigger investments at stake, and there was an 11% drop in the number of homes sold across Scotland for over £1 million between July and August,’ said Fowlis. ‘But this didn’t poison the longer term health of the market, and this was the strongest August for house sales since 2007. In the first eight months of the year, there have been 60,000 properties sold in Scotland, up 17% on the same period in 2013,’ he added. He explained that first time buyers have been the key unlocking this growth with sales to this group up by a quarter on last year. Flats are changing hands more furiously than any other property type on the market, as a wave of new buyers with more modest budgets clamber onto the housing ladder. ‘Annual price growth is holding fast, and Scotland’s average home is worth £9,000 more than a year ago. This 5.7% annual rise is hardier than the growth currently being witnessed in regions outside of the south east sphere of the UK, as Scotland continues to sail on course through the recovery,’ Fowlis explained. ‘More and more parts of the map are being swept up in the stream, and house prices in East Lothian and Aberdeen City reached new record highs in August, with values rising 9.3% and 10.1% respectively in the last year,’ he said. ‘In Aberdeen especially, new developments and investment in house building projects are nourishing supply of available stock on the market, and feeding the appetite of activity. But it… Continue reading
September real estate market moves on from election in New Zealand
There has been a notable increase in activity in the New Zealand residential real estate market with buyers and sellers putting the general election behind them. Sales in September increased by 7.8% compared with the previous month but are still 12% down on a year ago, according to the latest index from the Real Estate Institute of New Zealand (REINZ). The national median price was $420,000 for the month of September, an increase of $20,000 or 5% compared to September 2013, and steady from August 2014. The index also shows that days to sell improved by three days to 35 days compared to August, and eased four days compared to September 2013 ‘The real estate market appears to have moved on from the election, with a noticeable increase in activity over the last 10 days of the month,’ said REINZ chief executive Helen O’Sullivan. But she pointed out that despite stronger activity in the latter part of the month, sales volumes were again well down on the same time last year, meaning that sales volumes compared to last year have now fallen for 11 months in a row. Also, the pace of price increases has eased significantly, with the annual rate of price increase now only 5% compared to more than 10% in April. ‘A key theme reported by agents across the entire country is a lack of new listings. Unusually, listing levels are low even in Auckland where prices are at historically high levels, with the increased prices not tempting vendors into the market,’ said O’Sullivan. ‘There has been some pick up in listings in line with the start of spring, albeit not at the usual levels for this time of year. This may in part be a lag effect from the election. As with sales activity, listing interest is reported as having picked up in the last week of the September. We will be closely watching listing levels in October as a continued lack of choice is frustrating would be buyers,’ she added. Sales Volumes A breakdown of the figures shows that 10 regions recorded an increase in sales volume compared to August with Otago recording the largest percentage increase of 25.4%, followed by Northland with 19.1% and Hawkes Bay with 14.6%. Compared to September 2013 all 12 regions recorded a decrease in sales volume with Taranaki recording the largest fall of 31.5%, followed by Auckland and Nelson/Marlborough with a fall of 17.1%. While the total number of sales was down 12% compared to September 2013, the number of sales below $400,000 fell by 18.2%. This follows a fall in sales below $400,000 of 24.8% between August 2013 and August 2014. Nine regions recorded an increase in the median price and 68% of the increase in the national median price compared to September last year occurred in Auckland, with Canterbury/Westland contributing 20% of the increase and Waikato/Bay of Plenty contributing 5%. Together these three regions accounted for 92% of the increase in the… Continue reading
