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UK housing market activity remains strong despite election
Housing market activity in the UK was stronger across the board last month than at the same point last year, regardless of the general election, according to the latest research from valuers. There were 13% more property valuations conducted in April than a year ago, despite last month’s total dipping by 32% compared to March 2015, the data from Connells Survey and Valuation shows. According to John Bagshaw, the firm’s corporate services director, all indicators from first time buyers right through to remortgagers are up on compared to a year ago and he said this demonstrates the broad momentum in the property market, which he expects to continue through into the new Parliament. However, he pointed out that a less than clear election result could affect sentiment. ‘The latest monthly dip from March is generally a seasonal effect at this time of year so if this monthly slowdown continues further we’ll know that something has changed more fundamentally. Yet so far, there is no sign of a serious housing market slowdown,’ he said. The data also shows that in April remortgaging outperformed the overall housing market, posting a 25% growth on the same month last year, overcoming a 34% seasonal dip from March. Bagshaw believes that remortgaging is leading all other valuations activity, on the back of record low mortgage rates which are likely to stay low for some time. ‘Inflation is at zero and there’s little sign that the Bank of England will need to raise the base rate imminently. In the meantime mortgage rates have plummeted to the lowest level in over four years. Thus, many households may be capitalising on this period by refinancing to a fixed mortgage,’ he explained. The buy to let market, while experiencing the sharpest month on month decline compared to other sections of the market, contracting by 36% in April, also saw the largest percentage growth from the same time last year, up 29% on April 2014. Bagshaw said this could be due to talk of rent controls and three year tenancies. ‘Some would-be landlords are perhaps waiting to see whether and how these policies will be implemented before looking to invest further. Yet the long term picture is extremely positive,’ he pointed out. ‘Over the past year landlords have benefitted from a booming jobs market, which has led more people to move within commuting distance of work, thus increasing demands for rental properties in certain hot-spots. Equally, as real term wages pick up there has been an increase in the rental prices tenants are willing to pay,’ he added. There has been a slower pattern of activity among first time buyers. The number of valuations carried out on behalf of new buyers fell by 33% since March, leaving first time buyer activity up 7% compared to the same month last year. Moreover, activity on behalf of home owners… Continue reading
US pending home sales up 1.1% in March, but with regional variations
Pending home sales in the United States continued upwards in March and reached their highest level since June 2013, according to the latest index figures. The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward looking indicator based on contracts signed, from the National Association of Realtors climbed 1.1% to 108.6 in March from an upward revision of 107.4 in February and is now 11.1% above March 2014. The index has now increased year on year for seven consecutive months and is at its highest level since June 2013. NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun said that contract signings picked up in March as more buyers than usual entered this year's competitive spring market. ‘Demand appears to be stronger in several parts of the country, especially in metro areas that have seen solid job gains and firmer economic growth over the past year, While contract activity being up convincingly compared to a year ago is certainly good news, the increased number of traditional buyers who appear to be replacing investors paying in cash is even better news. It indicates this year's activity is being driven by more long term home owners,’ he explained. Yun expects a gradual improvement in home sales in the months ahead but says insufficient supply and accelerating prices could be a drawback to sales reaching their full potential. ‘Demand in many markets is far exceeding supply, and properties in March sold at a faster rate than any month since last summer. This in turn has pushed home prices to unhealthy levels, nearly four or more times above the pace of wage growth in some parts of the country. Simply put, housing inventory for new and existing homes needs to improve measurably to improve affordability,’ he added. A breakdown of the figures shows there is considerable regional variation. The index fell 1.5% in the Northeast fell, the fourth month in a row it has done so but is still 0.6% above a year ago. In the Midwest the index fell 2.5% but is 11.3% above March 2014. Pending home sales in the South increased 4% and are 12.4% above last March while the index in the West rose 1.7% in March and is now 15.6% above a year ago. Continue reading
Property prices in Australian cities holding steady and up almost 8% year on year
Residential property values across Australia’s capital cities increased by 0.8% in April, down from the 1.4% increase recorded in March, the latest index data shows. Overall values increased over the past month across every capital city except Canberra where values showed a 1.5% drop over the month, according to the CoreLogic RP home value index. CoreLogic RP Data head of research, Tim Lawless, said that despite the slower month on month reading, the annual rate of growth has seen a slight rebound, with dwelling values now 7.9% higher over the past 12 months across the combined capital city index. ‘Annually, the rate of capital gain has slowed since April last year, however, since the February rate cut the Sydney and, to a lesser extent, Melbourne housing markets have caught a second wind which is reflected in the higher rate of capital gain as well as the very strong auction results and rapid rate of sale for properties sold via private treaty,’ he explained. ‘Despite the slight annual rate of growth upswing, capital gains remain lower than their annual peak recorded in April last year when dwelling values were rising at the rate of 11.5% per annum across the combined capitals index,’ he added. According to the April results, capital city dwelling values have been trending higher over the past 35 months, recording a cumulative increase of 25.3% between the end of May 2012 and April 2015. ‘While the combined capitals trend of dwelling value growth has been substantial, the rate of growth across the Sydney housing market stands head and shoulders above the other capital cities over the cycle to date,’ said Lawless. He pointed out that Sydney dwelling values are now 40.2% higher relative to the May 2012 trough. ‘If you factor in the previous 2009/2010 phase of growth, Sydney values are now up 65.4% after the global financial crisis,’ he added. A breakdown of the figures show that Melbourne is the only other capital city that comes close to this measure where dwelling values are 52.3% higher post GFC. The next highest rate of growth is Darwin where values have moved 26.5% higher, followed by Canberra at 19.8%, Perth at 15.2%, Adelaide at 12.2%, Brisbane at 8% and Hobart at 1.2%. ‘While the headline growth figures remain strong it is clear that some markets are winding down. The rate of growth in Perth and Darwin has slowed substantially in line with the wind down of major infrastructure projects associated with the resources sector and the housing market in Canberra has also softened post federal election,’ Lawless said. The performance of houses versus apartments has shown some interesting trends of late. Detached homes are continuing to outperform the multi-unit sector, with capital city house values up 8.3% over the past year while unit values have risen by a lower 5.6%. This trend is more noticeable in the key growth markets of Sydney and Melbourne. Sydney house values are up 15.5% over the past year while… Continue reading
