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First time buyers in UK not impacted by Brexit vote
Buyers in the UK seemed largely unperturbed in the run up to the European Union referendum in June with sales to first time buyers increasing. According to the latest monthly report from the National Association of Estate Agents (NAEA) demand for housing increased as well while supply of available properties and the number of sales going through were stable. However, immediately following the result to leave the EU, agents witnessed uncertainty from sellers, and supply fell momentarily. Overall in June, estate agents saw an increase in demand which the NAEA says suggests that buyers weren’t fazed by the risk of Brexit in the lead up to the vote. There were an average 330 house hunters registered per member branch last month, up 9% from May when 304 buyers were registered, the lowest number recorded since November 2013. However, although June saw growth in the number of prospective buyers, demand still remains low in comparison to June last year. Meanwhile, some 57% of agents reported a drop in demand from prospective buyers and 58% saw supply fall in the week immediately following the vote. However, it is expected this will level out in July. First time buyers in particular were not impacted by the Brexit result. Immediately following the result only 28% of NAEA agents witnessed uncertainty from this group of buyers, while 30% of total house sales in June were made to first time buyers, the highest number of sales since October last year. The Brexit vote did not affect the number sales that completed in June either, with a total of eight sales completing per branch last month, a figure which has not shifted from May. Further to this, the supply of available housing also remained the same with an average of 37 properties registered per member branch in June. ‘In periods of extreme political and economic uncertainty, the housing market will always respond. However, it’s a relief to see that looking at the whole month overall, buyers were still keen to buy, sellers were still keen to sell and sales were still going through at the same level as we’d expect,’ said Mark Hayward, NAEA managing director. ‘It’s only natural that immediately following the vote supply fell but our figures show that the lead up to the vote wasn’t all doom and gloom, which should be a good indication of the months to come,’ he explained. ‘We remain upbeat and need others in the industry to do so as well. The new Housing Minister confirming his commitment to building £1 million new homes will be encouraging for many buyers, especially those looking to buy their first home. Hopefully we should soon see housing market confidence bouncing back to the levels seen pre-Brexit,’ he added. Continue reading
Brexit analysis shows vote has affected UK prices and sales
Overall, both property prices and sales in the UK have fallen by around 8% since the referendum decision to leave the European Union, but there are wide regional variations. London, the Home Counties and Northern Ireland have been the hardest hit by Brexit, according to a survey covering the four weeks before and after the vote on 23 June carried out by ReallyMoving. It found that sales fell by 8% and prices also fell by 8% across the country but sales were down much further in London by 44% while prices in Scotland increased by 15%. Sales volumes fell markedly, down 12% for the month after the vote compared to the month before, based on the 35,000 people who registered for quotes for conveyancing, surveys and removals with the firm. Although some summer seasonal decline is expected, typically around 4% to 5%, the firm says that this is a seasonally adjusted 8% fall, an unusually high volume drop and the fall of 8% in average property is a significantly larger month on month change than seen at any point in the previous five years. Looking at the breakdown in prices and transaction volumes across the UK reveals striking regional differences. While London remains by far the highest-priced region, prices have fallen 12% since Brexit, and property purchases down 44%. The number of property purchases has fallen in all regions, most strongly in London, the Home Counties, and Northern Ireland, while Wales saw a drop of just 3%. Although prices fell significantly in London, there were even bigger declines in the North East of England and Northern Ireland, as both fell 17%. But, prices rose by 15% in Scotland, and by a more modest 7% in Wales. International moves have increased markedly since Brexit, but only for moves away from the UK, which have increased by 43%. Moves to the UK are broadly unchanged. The most popular destinations for international moves from the UK are to Spain, USA, Canada, Australia, Germany and Italy. ‘Brexit has had a marked impact on the UK property market. The drop in transaction volumes has been striking, particularly in London, the Home Counties and Northern Ireland,’ said Rob Houghton, chief executive officer of ReallyMoving. ‘In the medium term we would expect volumes to pick up if the price falls are maintained, but it is clear that many prospective home movers are sitting tight until there's greater clarity over the post-Brexit economy and our likely new relationship with the rest of the EU,’ he added. Continue reading
Prime commercial property rents up across UK in second quarter of 2016
Rents across the UK’s prime commercial property increased by 1% in the second quarter of 2016, boosted by near record levels of rental growth in central London shops, according to a new report. The latest CBRE’s Prime Rent and Yield Monitor shows that in a quarter characterised by uncertainty around the European Union referendum, prime yields remained stable, implying flat capital values overall. Rents grew significantly across several sectors during the quarter, with high street shops and industrial rents rising 2.8% and 1.4% respectively. Central London saw the greatest rental growth among high street shops driving up overall shop rents, increasing by 8.9% over the last quarter, some way ahead of the 0.2% rental growth in shops across the rest of UK. Indeed, a third of the tracked locations in Central London saw rent increases over the quarter, showing that retailers are still willing to pay premium rents for the limited stock available in the most sought after streets of the capital. Prime yields remained almost flat during the quarter, rising by 4bps to remain close to 5.4%. Yields from prime shops and shopping centres remained unchanged over the three months, while the office sector also saw little yield fluctuation, ticking up 1bp. Industrials and retail warehouses were the main drivers of the slight uplift in overall yields in the second quarter. ‘The second quarter wasn’t exactly business as usual for the UK’s political and economic landscape, but despite the heightened uncertainty in the run up to the referendum vote, the commercial property sector demonstrated strong underlying health, with yields largely unmoved in core markets,’ said Miles Gibson, head of UK research at CBRE. ‘In particular, ample demand for commercial space pushed up rents nationwide, especially in prime London retail, which saw some of the highest rental growth on record. The capital is open for business, and remains an attractive proposition for occupiers seeking to locate in a world leading global city, and investors and landlords capitalising on this desire,’ he pointed out. ‘Although the shadow cast by Brexit means rental growth is unlikely to grow at this pace next quarter, the UK is well positioned to capitalise on the demand for new space,’ he added. Continue reading
