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UK housing market confidence falls slightly
Confidence in the UK housing market has fallen slightly despite the fact that interest rates were held again and average house prices continued to increase. According to the latest monthly Halifax Housing Market Confidence Tracker the headline House Price Outlook balance, that is the difference between the proportion of people across Britain that expect the average property price to rise less the proportion who think it will fall, slipped to +58 compared with +64 in March 2015. At the same time the net proportion of consumers who now believe the next 12 months will be a good time to buy has increased from +21 in March to +26 in April. Conversely, the net proportion who think that the next year will be a good time to sell has fallen from +33 to +30. The research found that 63% expected the average property price to be higher in one year’s time which is significantly lower than the 67% who said this in March and this is despite a number of positive short term factors. These include the emergence of record low mortgage rates, falling swap rates, GDP growth falling to its slowest pace in three years and Office of National Statistics figures showing negative inflation of 0.1% in April. MPC minutes also showed a unanimous vote to keep rates on hold at 0.5% in the latest meeting. These, along with other factors, such as rising employment levels, should start to see the consumer housing outlook improve over the next few months, according to Craig McKinlay, Halifax mortgages director. ‘With inflation now at its lowest level since records began, unemployment falling, and the economy still growing, the fundamentals for the housing market remain positive. Going forward the key factor in how consumers adjust to any changes in rates will be the way in which they manage their disposable income,’ he said. Continue reading
British private rental sector producing good investment returns
British Landlords have seen total annual returns of £111.5 billion in the last year, as the private rented sector continued to grow, according to a new buy to let report. The sector grew by nearly 150,000 households in the year to March, with rented accommodation accounting for 77.4% of new households created across all tenures, says the report from Kent Reliance. This rapid growth has led the firm to forecast that on present trends, the sector will increase from 4.8 million households in Great Britain to 5.5 million by 2020. The expansion of the sector has supported the rise in its value. At the end of March, the total value of property owned by landlords in Great Britain stood at £990.7 billion, increasing by 11% in the last year. The sector’s value is now equivalent to 43.1% of the value of the UK’s Stock Market, up from just 12.2% 15 years ago. House price inflation also contributed towards the increase in the sector’s value, the report says. Although slower than its recent peak last year, annual inflation remains brisk at 7.5%. This is also supporting gross total annual returns. By the end of March, the average property generated return of £24,221 in rental income and capital gains, just £1,000 less than the average salary over the past 12 months, equivalent to 12.5%. Across the country as a whole, this meant that annual returns seen by property investors totalled £111.5 billion, some £67.2 billion in capital gains, and £44.3 billion in rents. In total, this figure was £5.8 billion higher than the £105.7 billion landlords saw in March 2014, although it represented a decline compared to the recent peak of £137.5 billion in September, when capital gains were at their highest in at least seven years. Andy Golding, chief executive of OneSavings Bank, which trades under the Kent Reliance and InterBay brands said it shows that buy to let has come of age, moving from a niche asset class to one big enough to rival the stock market. ‘Landlords are seeing the benefit of a structural change in Britain’s housing market, with tenant demand ever strengthening. Yes, house prices are showing signs of steadying somewhat, but growth remains brisk,’ he explained. ‘Long term price inflation is not in danger, given the gaping chasm between growing demand for housing and the number of houses being built each year. Combined with the dearth of high LTV lending to first time buyers, this will continue to buoy demand for rental accommodation, as well as landlords’ returns, and the sector will continue to expand,’ he pointed out. ‘Supporting the growth in the number of experienced landlords with growing portfolios is crucial to providing the investment necessary in the sector to match demand. The mortgage market is playing its part, with remortgaging vibrant, and an increasing array of second charge… Continue reading
