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US housing market likely to see more pressure on prices
Housing starts in the United States rose in September, driven by the multifamily sector, but completions are not matching that hot pace, especially for lower end homes. With demand rising but supply in the form of completions slowing, there will be more pressure on home prices to rise, according to the latest analysis report from real estate firm CoreLogic. The implications are likely to be particularly felt at the low end of the property market due to the Federal Housing Administration’s decision in January to cut mortgage insurance premiums by 50 basis points, it points out. Overall starts are up 18% since last September, driven by multifamily, which saw strong growth of 29%, the data shows. Completions, though, the number of units actually delivered, rose by only 8% year on year, or less than half the jump in starts. Multifamily is the driver in this sector too, up 20% from September of last year. ‘The number that should give the market pause, though, is the completions on one-unit structures, both attached and detached. They are up only 3% and they are the most important segment to look at. They significantly lag the one unit structure starts number which were up 12% year on year,’ the report says. ‘Since it takes six months to deliver a house after ground breaking, completions is the actual new supply that is ready to be sold. What that means for home sales is definite upward pressure on home prices,’ it explained. The report also points out that since the FHA made its premium cut, the prices for lower end houses have jumped and the FHA is a big presence in the low end market where houses typically sold for 75% or less than the median. As of August, real prices for lower end houses have jumped 10.4% relative to a year ago. Prices for higher end homes have been up as well, but only half as high at 5.2%. The lower end prices, which had been up in a narrow range of around s7% the last half of last year, really took off starting in January. ‘The real trend to watch here is if one unit completions will rise to match what is a re-acceleration of demand on the low end. If demand for homes to buy outstrips supply, prices will inevitably rise even higher,’ the report concludes. Continue reading
Sales of UK property priced over a million fell in first half of 2015
The number of property sales worth at least a million pounds in the UK has fallen in the first half of 2015, down by 11% compared to the same period in 2014. This is in stark contrast to the 46% increase seen in the first half of 2014 and is the first decline in sales since the first half of 2012 when the number of property transactions in this market segment fell by 7% over the corresponding period in 2011. However, since the first half of 2005 million pound home sales have grown by 264%, the data from the latest research report from Lloyds Bank also shows. It adds that whereas last year the top end of the market outperformed the rest, the decline in million pound home sales this year has tracked the rest of the market with sales of properties under £1 million also falling by 11%. Despite falling sales nationally, some areas continue to buck the trend. Virginia Water, Cobham and Beaconsfield are the most expensive towns, with an average house price of over £1 million. This is the first time the average property price has hit £1 million outside of London. Virginia Water, in the historic Borough of Runnymede, where the Magna Carta was signed 800 years ago, is Britain's most expensive town with an average house price of £1,168,992. To live amongst the celebrities of Cobham in Surrey will require paying, on average, £1,042,552 for a home, making it the second most expensive town. In third place is Beaconsfield where the average property price is £1,003,367. ‘The number of homes sold for over £1 million has fallen sharply over the past year, with a pronounced slowdown in the prime and central London market. This may be the effect of the new Stamp Duty rates introduced last December and uncertainty generated by the election in May,’ said Sarah Deaves, private banking director at Lloyds Bank. However, the regional picture is much more mixed and we’re seeing the emergence of towns where the average price is at least £1 million. Whilst there are several London neighbourhoods where prices are already at this elevated level, outside of the capital this is a first,’ she added. Overall there is a mixed regional picture, as sales fall in London but rise in Scotland. Sales of million pound homes in London fell by 15%, the largest decline in the capital since the first half of 2009 when transactions fell by 43% during the lowest point of the housing downturn. In the South East sales in this sector fell by 9% in the first half of 2015 compared to a year earlier. However, in Scotland the sale of million pound homes has more than doubled with a rise of 158%. The only other regions to have seen an increase in sales were Yorkshire and the Humber with growth of 10% and the East of England up 8%. In Wales transactions rose by 29%, albeit… Continue reading
Sales to first time buyers in UK jump almost 10% month on month
The number of sales made to first time buyers in the UK increased in September by 9% compared to the previous month, according to the latest data from the National Association of Estate Agents (NAEA). Buyers taking their first step on the housing ladder accounted for 29% of all sales compared to 20% in August, the highest since May this year when sales to the group made up 29% of total sales. ‘It’s obviously very positive to see that the number of sales being made to first time buyers has risen this month. We saw an average nine sales going through per branch in September, which means that for each branch, around three sales were made to the group,’ said Mark Hayward, NAEA managing director, . ‘We’re seeing a whole range of new competitive mortgage products coming on to the market, which is likely to be encouraging first steppers to take the plunge, as well as the fact that the ‘impending’ interest rate rise has now been pushed back to next year at the very earliest,’ he explained. ‘However, in order to ensure there is enough affordable housing on the market for first time buyers we need the issue of supply and demand to be addressed in a big way. Until substantial numbers of new houses are built, we won’t see every first time buyer reach the bottom rung of the ladder,’ he added. The NAEA monthly report also shows that the number of house hunters registered per estate agent branch dropped in September, following a period of high and unsustainable demand in July and August. On average, there were 342 prospective buyers registered at each NAEA member branch in September. This is a drop of 16% from the 408 recorded in August, and a 26% drop from July when demand reached an 11year high with average 462 house hunters per branch. The number of properties available to buy dropped marginally to 37 per member branch in September. This followed a huge fall in the availability of housing stock the month before, when the number of properties available fell from 55 in July to 38 in August, a decrease of 31%. ‘If we could just get supply and demand to meet in the middle, the housing market would be functional again as it’s a real issue across the market at the moment. Developers are struggling to secure planning permission and labour is in short supply. This means that the army of house hunters looking to buy has out-grown the number of housing available at a rapid rate, and it’s completely unsustainable,’ Hayward pointed out. He explained that the introduction of the Housing and Planning Bill announced last week is good news, however, it includes an extension of the Right to Buy to Housing Association properties, which should help to increase supply in the housing market as homes that are… Continue reading
