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Majority of home owners in Australia concerned about property values
More than two thirds of Australians are concerned that Australia’s housing is vulnerable to a significant correction in values, according to the latest housing sentiment survey. Some 68% of respondents to the September CoreLogic RP Data TEG survey said they believe the housing market is vulnerable to a significant correction in values. However, the findings are a reduction from the previous quarter results where 75% of respondents indicated they were concerned about a significant downturn, but despite the apparent improvement in consumer perceptions, a significant proportion of the community are wary of substantial value falls across the nation’s largest and most important asset class, which according to CoreLogic RP Data is worth an estimated $6.2 trillion. ‘While we don’t envisage dwelling values will fall substantially, the probability of declines in Sydney, and to a lesser extent in Melbourne, after such a strong run of capital gains isn’t unlikely,’ said CoreLogic RP Data head of research Tim Lawless. ‘Home values are already trending lower in Darwin and Perth. It was less than three and a half years ago that capital city dwelling values fell by 7.4% between October 2010 and May 2012,’ he pointed out. Additionally, 95% of survey respondents believe that foreign demand is pushing property values higher, with 19% indicating that foreign buyers were responsible for placing ‘extreme’ upwards pressure on home values. Only 5% of survey respondents thought foreign buying activity wasn’t pushing home values higher. According to Lawless, the results are a stark reminder that the true extent of foreign buying of residential properties across Australia continues to lack transparency, despite the House Economics Committee Report on Foreign Investment in Residential Real Estate being handed down almost a year ago. He added that the latest statistics haven’t been updated since the 2013/14 financial year. Some 55% of survey respondents thought that the current housing market conditions represented a good time to buy a property, down from 60% in June. Respondents based in Sydney, where housing market conditions have been running the hottest, were the most pessimistic about buying conditions, however 29.7% of respondents still thought that now was a good time to be getting into the market. Alternatively, more than 70% of survey respondents thought buying conditions were ripe in the Australian Capital Territory, Adelaide, regional Queensland and Perth. The proportion of survey respondents who thought property values will rise over the coming six months has been trending lower, with respondents who thought home values will rise over the next six months dropping from 49% in March and 48% in June to just 40% of all respondents in September. Continue reading
Home buyers in UK unlikely to see mortgage costs rise in short term
Home buyers in the UK are set to see mortgage rates remain at historic lows for some time yet despite original forecasts that they might rise by the end of this year. The Bank of England has indicated that the current 0.5% base rate is likely to be around for some time yet with a rise not looking likely until well into 2016 or even 2017. Rates have now been this low for 80 months. But there are concerns that home buyers will get too used to low interest rates and this could backfire in the future when interest rates do rise. According to James Jones, head of Consumer Affairs at Experian, buyers need to work out what they can afford, and plan ahead for unforeseen costs that may make repaying debts harder over the years ahead. A survey of people who had failed to secure a mortgage last year suggests that many are failing to do the basic research needed to get proper control of their finances. Some 13% did not know how much money they have left over at the end of the month and 18% did not know what monthly repayments they could afford. The research also found that 14% did not have a big enough deposit for the property they wanted and 12% were unable to secure the size of mortgage they needed. Another piece of research has found that almost three quarters of home owners with interest only mortgages are worried they may not be able to repay their loan. Interest only deals mean borrowers pay the interest on the loan during the life of the mortgage and then must repay the capital when the mortgage term ends. Just 31% of those interest only borrowers questioned said they have a separate investment policy in place, such as an endowment or an ISA, to pay the capital, according to the research by mortgage broker Ocean Finance. While 16% said they plan to switch to a repayment mortgage before their current loan ends, 31% said they expect to have to sell their home to settle the outstanding capital. And a fifth of home owners said they don’t have a plan in place to repay the capital. ‘Interest only has become a time bomb because so many people took out the products to cut the cost of their mortgage, with no view of how they would repay the capital element. Borrowers who have an interest only mortgage with no repayment plan need to take action,’ said Gareth Shilton, Ocean’s spokesperson. ‘It’s advisable to seek advice on whether they can overpay on their current interest only deal, switch to a repayment mortgage, or use an ISA or pension to settle the capital payment,’ he added. Interest only mortgages became popular in the 1990s as a way for consumers to afford homes at a time when property prices were soaring. Lenders often agreed interest only loans without confirming borrowers could repay the capital owing… Continue reading
UK prices up almost 10% year on year, latest index data shows
UK house prices increased by 1.1% between September and October and re up 2.8% quarter on quarter and 9.7% year on year, the latest property index shows. This means that the average house price is now over £200,000 at £205,240, according to the Halifax index data and the report says that house price optimism remains high. The 1.1% monthly rise followed a previous month’s fall of 0.9% and the market is up and down with the quarterly figures being more reliable in terms of indicating overall trends, according to Martin Ellis, the Halifax’s housing economist. He pointed out that house prices over the three months from August to October with growth of 2.8% were higher than in the preceding three months and the quarterly rate of change increased from September’s 2% and was a little above the 2.5% average over the first nine months of the year. Some 68% of Britons expect average property prices to be higher in 12 months’ time with just 5% expecting it to be lower, according to the latest quarterly Halifax Housing Market Confidence Tracker. The Halifax report also points out that figures from HMRC show that home sales increased again in September. UK home sales increased by 1% between August and September, to 106,030. This was the second successive monthly rise. Sales in the three months to September were 4.4% higher than in the preceding three months. Mortgage approvals are also on an upward trend despite falling in September. The volume of mortgage approvals for house purchases, a leading indicator of completed house sales, increased by 4% between the second and third quarter of the year despite a 2.5% decline in September. Approvals in the three months to September were 10% higher than in the same three months last year. However, supply remains at a record low. New instructions by home sellers declined in September for the eighth successive month. This contributed to the stock of homes available for sale remaining at record low levels. ‘Improving economic conditions and household finances, together with sustained low mortgage rates, have boosted housing demand during 2015. Strengthening demand is filtering through in to higher sales levels although the ongoing shortage of supply is acting as a significant constraint on activity,’ said Ellis. ‘The imbalance between supply and demand is likely to persist over the coming months, maintaining upward pressure on house prices,’ he added. Rishi Passi, chief executive officer of Oblix Capital, believes growth on this scale isn't sustainable. ‘Wage increases and low inflation are bolstering household finances, helping to take some of the sting out of these increases,’ he said. ‘The diminishing prospect of an interest rate rise also means lenders are continuing to offer historically attractive rates to the market, which is good news for first time buyers and developers alike,’ he added. Continue reading
