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Gross mortgage lending in UK jumps 8% month on month
Gross mortgage lending in the UK reached £21.8 billion in October, some 8% higher than the previous month, according to the latest estimates from the Council of Mortgage Lenders. In addition to the month on month rise, lending rose 19% year on year, from £18.4 billion in October 2014, the highest monthly figure since gross lending reached £23.6 billion in July 2008. ‘As lending in the regulated mortgage space picked up over the summer months, the pace of recovery has improved. This looks set to continue over the closing months of the year with the factors helping support this recovery continuing to be low inflation, strong wage growth, an improving labour market and competitive mortgage deals,’ said Bob Pannell, CML chief economist. ‘As a result lending this year is likely to exceed our forecast of £209 billion, though affordability pressures will limit business volumes for first-time buyers and movers meaning that we think the market has only modest further upside potential over the short term,’ he added. According to Peter Rollings, chief executive officer of Marsh & Parsons, lending levels are at an impressive seven year high. ‘We’re yet to clear the pre-crisis July 2008 benchmark but over the summer the mortgage market has really taken it up a notch, and month on month improvements are getting more cheerful as we approach the festive season,’ he said. He pointed out that London has seen a significant boost in mortgage buyers and first time buyers since June, as domestic activity intensifies in the housing market. Mortgage buyers accounted for 65% of London property purchases in the third quarter of 2015, a significant leap from 52% the previous quarter. In addition to this 26% of all third quarter sales were to first time buyers. ‘Overall competitive mortgage rates and low inflation have paved a smoother road for buyers, and this has shifted the dynamic in the capital towards British buyers, as key tax changes still act as a speed bump to some overseas buyers and investors,’ added Rollings. John Eastgate, sales and marketing director of OneSavings Bank, pointed out that a scarcity of supply of property remains an issue in a lending market that is still driven very much be refinancing activity. ‘Wages are still growing, while deflation is bolstering incomes in real terms, supporting borrower’s finances. Negative inflation is also kicking a rate rise into the long grass, which is enabling lenders to offer historically attractive rates,’ he added. Demand is being driven by continued interest from prospective house buyers and a surge in the remortgage market, and this is being matched by the availability of finance, according to Henry Woodcock, principal mortgage consultant at IRESS. ‘Eyes are now turning towards end of year targets, fuelling interest rate competition between lenders, further stimulating borrower demand. With interest rate hikes now unlikely until the first half of 2016 at the earliest, the cost of servicing a mortgage… Continue reading
Supply shortage pushing up property prices in the US
Shortage of supply is keeping house prices in the United States on the up across most of the nation but growth is slowing to a more healthy paces, according to the latest quarterly report. Overall prices increased during the third quarter of the year with the median existing home single family home price up in 87% of markets. Some 154 out of 178 metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) showing gains based on closings in the third quarter compared with the third quarter of 2014, the data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) shows. And 24 or 13% of areas recorded lower median prices from a year earlier. There were slightly fewer rising markets in the third quarter compared to the second quarter, when price gains were recorded in 93% of metro areas while 21 or 12% of metro areas in the third quarter saw double digit increases, a fall from the 34 metro areas in the second quarter. Some 16 or 9% of metro areas saw double digit increases in the third quarter of 2014. According to Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, there is no question the housing market had its best quarter in nearly a decade. ‘The demand for buying picked up speed in many metro areas during the summer as more households entered the market, encouraged by favourable mortgage rates and improving local economies,’ he said. ‘While price growth still teetered near or above unhealthy levels in some markets, the good news is that there was some moderation despite the stronger pace of sales,’ he added. The national median existing single family home price in the third quarter was $229,000, up 5.5% from the third quarter of 2014 when it was $217,100. The median price during the second quarter of this year increased 8.2% from a year earlier. Total existing home sales, including single family and condo, increased 3.4% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.48 million in the third quarter from 5.30 million in the second quarter, and are 8.3% higher than the 5.06 million pace during the third quarter of 2014. Yun explained that sales had the potential to be even higher last quarter given the decline in mortgage rates and favourable economic conditions. ‘Unfortunately, the lack of any meaningful gains in housing supply pushed prices in some areas above what some potential buyers, especially first time buyers, are able to afford,’ he added. The five most expensive housing markets in the third quarter were the San Jose, California metro area, where the median existing single family price was $965,000, San Francisco at $809,400, Anaheim–Santa Ana, California at $715,300, Honolulu at $714,000 and San Diego at $554,400. The five lowest cost metro areas in the third quarter were Cumberland, Maryland, where the median single family home price was $82,400, Youngstown–Warren–Boardman, Ohio, at $90,700, Decatur, Illinois at $101,400, Rockford, Illinois at $102,800 and Elmira, New York at $108,800. ‘Many of the metro areas with the fastest price appreciation over the past year… Continue reading
Canadian property prices up 2.5% year on year, excluding Vancouver and Toronto
National home sales rose by 1.8% from September to October in Canada while prices were up 6.7% year on year, according to the latest index from the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA). Actual, not seasonally adjusted, activity was little changed with growth of 0.1% compared to October 2014 while the number of newly listed homes was up 0.9% and CREA says that the Canadian housing market remains balanced overall. The data also shows that the national average sale price rose 8.3% year on year but excluding Greater Vancouver and Greater Toronto, it increased by 2.5%. There was an even split between the number of markets where sales posted a monthly increase and those where sales declined. The national increase was driven by monthly sales gains in the Lower Mainland of British Columbia together with the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) and surrounding areas, led by the York Region, Central Toronto, and Hamilton-Burlington. ‘The continuation of low interest rates is supporting home sales activity. Even so, the strength of sales activity varies by location and price segment across Canada,’ said CREA president Pauline Aunger. October extended resale housing market trends of recent months, according to Gregory Klump, CREA’s chief economist. He pointed out that single detached homes continue to be in short supply while demand for them remains strong in a number of active and populous housing markets in British Columbia and Ontario. Meanwhile, an ample supply of condo apartments remains. ‘The balance between supply and demand is generally tighter for single detached homes than it is for condo apartments and that’s unlikely to change any time soon. For that reason, price gains for single detached homes should continue to outstrip those for condo apartment units for some time,’ added Klump. Actual sales were up from year ago levels in half of all local markets, led by the Lower Mainland region of British Columbia, the GTA and Montreal. Gains there were largely offset by a drop in activity in the Calgary region, where sales were down considerably from the record set last year for transactions during the month of October. Year on year price growth slowed in in October for one and two storey single family homes, but picked up for townhouse/row and apartment units. Two storey single family homes continue to post the biggest year on year price gains with growth of 8.67% followed by one storey single family homes up 6.02%, townhouse/row units up 4.88% and apartment units up 4.39%. Year on year price growth varied among housing markets tracked by the index. Greater Vancouver was up 15.33% and Greater Toronto was up 10.33% and continue to post double digit year on year price increases. Meanwhile, price gains in the Fraser Valley increased by 10.51%. By comparison, Victoria and Vancouver Island prices saw year on year gains that ranged between 5% and 7% in October. Prices in Calgary edged down by 1% year on year and prices in Saskatoon were down 1.5%. Prices… Continue reading
