Tag Archives: finance
UK house prices continue to creep upward, latest index shows
House prices in the UK increased by 0.6% in October, taking the average price of a home to £196,807, according to the latest index to be published. The data from the Nationwide, one of the country’s main lenders, prices are now up 3.9% year on year. The report points out that over the past five months annual price growth has remained in a fairly narrow range between 3% and 4%, broadly consistent with earnings growth over the longer term. ‘While this bodes well for a sustainable increase in housing market activity, much will depend on whether building activity can keep pace with increasing demand,’ said Robert Gardner, Nationwide's chief economist. He also pointed out that fixed rate mortgages have remained the most popular because of ongoing uncertainty about when the Bank of England might introduce an interest rate rise. ‘Historically low interest rates have helped to offset the negative impact of rising house prices on affordability. Indeed, even though house prices are at an all-time high, the cost of servicing a typical mortgage is still close to the long term average as a share of take home pay,’ Gardner explained. He said that fewer variable interest rate mortgages should help to insulate many households from the impact of higher interest rates but he warned that the majority of recent fixes are for relatively short time periods with 65% for two years and 30% for five years. ‘Nevertheless, the housing market should be able to cope with higher interest rates in the year ahead, provided the increase is modest and the economy and the labour market remain in good shape,’ he said ‘Guidance from the Bank of England suggests that the increase in interest rates is likely to be gradual, and that they are expected to settle at a level somewhat below the average prevailing before the financial crisis, which should help ensure borrowing costs remain manageable,’ he added. Alex Gosling, chief executive officer of online estate agents HouseSimple believes that as building activity is highly unlikely to keep up with demand, average house prices are likely to continue to rise and rising interest rates could affect many home owners. ‘It's hard to believe but many home owners have never known a conventional interest rate environment, and when it finally comes it could well prove a shock. If the economy holds firm then gradual rate rises will be better accommodated, but the extent of the impact of a rate rise on the market remains a great unknown,’ he explained. ‘What we can say with near certainty is that if rates rise sharply, many borrowers could get caught out. Thankfully people are moving to fixed rate mortgages to protect themselves,’ he added. According to Mark Dyason, director of Edinburgh Mortgage Advice, borrowers know higher rates are coming sooner or later and they are thinking ahead. ‘First time buyers and people with smaller deposits are especially likely to select a fixed rate because that's what most lenders are… Continue reading
UK building industry facing severe shortages, says RICS survey
The UK’s construction industry is facing its greatest skills crisis since 1998, with bricklayers and quantity surveyors in shortest supply, a new survey shows. These highest skills shortage on record are set to limit sector growth potential but despite this a sharp growth in construction is reported across UK, according to the report from the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS). Over half of respondents, 53%, reported difficulty sourcing labour, with 71% saying they had particular difficulty sourcing bricklayers and 64% highlighting a shortage of quantity surveyors. During the same period in 2011, just 1% of respondents were struggling to find bricklayers and only 15% noted a shortage of quantity surveyors. In addition to labour supply, 69% of firms said that financial constraints, such as access to credit, were among the biggest constraints to growth, while 60% said that regulatory and planning issues were potent constraints. However, despite these challenges, the survey shows significant areas of growth, with the number of new construction projects increasing, particularly in private housing and commercial sectors. While official figures, which are often subject to revision, highlighted a slight contraction in output over the three months to August, a substantial proportion of respondents in the RICS survey reported an increase in their workloads, a net balance +39%, with 29% of firms saying that they were operating at full capacity. The private housing and commercial sectors continue to lead the growth in workloads with net balances of 47% and 46% respectively reporting an increase. However, momentum was least firm in the public sector with net balances of 12% and 21% reporting growth in workloads in the housing and non-housing segments respectively. Meanwhile, in the infrastructure sector, growth accelerated somewhat with a balance of 34% seeing workloads rise, up from 25% in the previous quarter. ‘While it’s exciting to see that the UK is experiencing growth across the construction sectors, future growth will only be sustainable if the growing skills crisis is addressed. The availability of both blue collar and white collar construction workers is reaching crisis point,’ said Simon Rubinsohn, RICS chief economist. ‘We haven’t witnessed a labour shortage of its kind in nearly 20 years. Without the relevant skills, we will not be able to grow many of the Government’s priority construction sectors such as infrastructure,’ he pointed out. ‘Currently, while we know that there is a serious shortage of skills, we don’t yet know why we have seen such a dramatic drop in the labour market over the past five years. Part of the problem is the legacy of the collapse in the sector following the onset of the Global Financial Crisis,’ he explained. ‘Many professionals and other skilled workers chose to leave the industry and quite simply have not returned or been replaced. A real focus on attracting more young people into the industry is critical alongside an expansion of apprenticeship opportunities,’ he added. Continue reading
Sales rise in Hong Kong residential market
Residential property sales in Hong Kong have increased, up 9.4% from August to September but officials are keeping tax policies in place to try to keep price growth under control. First hand transactions jumped 110%, while secondary sales declined 15%, month on month, according to the latest data from the Land Registry. Both demand and supply remained robust in the primary market, with around 360 units launched during the mid-autumn festival holiday, says the latest monthly Hong Kong property market report from international real estate firm Knight Frank. For example, 110 units in Century Link in Tung Chung and over 200 flats in Upper East in Hung Hom were snapped up within just a few hours. In contrast, the secondary market remained subdued last month, amid the recent stock market volatility, a potential interest rate rise in the United States and fierce competition from primary developments, the report points out. It also points out that the Chief Executive has announced that the stamp duty policies will remain in place in the near term. ‘We do not expect home prices to drop significantly,’ the report adds. Calculations by Knight Frank indicate that a 100-bps increase in mortgage rates will only result in a HK$500 increment in monthly instalment for every HK$1 million of mortgage loan, based on a 20 year repayment period. ‘Therefore, a minor interest rate hike is not expected to lead to a significant default risk. On the other hand, market views do not expect a drastic interest rate hike this year,’ it adds. Despite strong leasing demand, the Grade-A office market was stable last month amid limited available space, particularly in core business areas, the report also says. Most firms opted for renewing their leases rather than relocation due to a lack of alternatives. The key demand drivers remained Mainland Chinese firms, which continued to favour Central for setting up offices. As a result, Central’s vacancy rate dropped a further 0.2% point to an extremely low level of 1.4% in September, close to the historical low in 2008. An increasing trend of operation split was witnessed in the office market due to a lack of vacant space. Many firms have to split their operations into smaller offices located in different buildings. Previously, only major firms requiring large premises needed to split their offices, but now even firms requiring units of below 10,000 square feet are going for such arrangement. ‘With the tight supply and many offices under multiple offers, landlords have become more aggressive in asking rents. If the trend continues, it could be possible to see a reversed premium situation next year, firms requiring large office space have to pay an even higher per square foot rental,’ the report explains. ‘Looking ahead, given sustained demand and low vacancy rates, we remain positive towards the long term outlook for Grade-A offices in Hong Kong. We expect rents in Central to increase 10% this year and another 5% in 2016. In Kowloon… Continue reading
