Tag Archives: finance
Prime central London prices still falling
Prices in central London’s prime residential market fell 0.3% in October, the steepest monthly decline since the summer of 2010, and annual growth slowed to 1%, the lowest rate since October 2009. This latest data from real estate firm Knight Frank means that the firm has revised 2016 forecast for the sector down to 2% from 4.5%. According to Tom Bill, Knight Frank’s head of London research, even although it has been 11 months since the Chancellor raised stamp duty for properties worth more than £1.1 million, the consequences have only come into sharper focus in recent weeks. ‘The spring selling season was overshadowed by the general election and, after a seasonal lull in the summer, the autumn market has been the first reliable test of sentiment since the stamp duty increase. Autumn is typically a more active time of year but the final months of 2015 have been marked by a standoff between buyers and sellers,’ he explained. ‘There is a degree of nervousness around global economic events such as the China slowdown and the fact some markets have experienced strong price growth in recent years, but the stand-off primarily comes down to the arithmetic of higher stamp duty rates,’ he said. ‘Buyers calculate it will take them longer to recover the extra stamp duty expense in house price inflation and expect a lower asking price, something vendors are not always willing to concede,’ he added. The figures also shows that the number of exchanges in the three months to September was 17% lower than in 2014. Meanwhile, the number of new prospective buyers was 30% down on the same period in 2014. ‘However, despite the stand-off, there are signs some vendors have realised demand has cooled since the stamp duty increase and where asking prices have come down the market is operating in a normal manner and tapping into underlying demand that remains resilient,’ Bill concluded. Continue reading
A rent freeze in London could seriously reduce number of properties available, study finds
Some 60% of London landlords would reduce the size of their property portfolios in the event of a rent freeze, new research has found. The report commissioned by the London Assembly Housing Committee carried out by the Cambridge Centre for Housing and Planning Research (CCHPR), surveyed amateur landlords with just a few properties as well as commercial build to rent landlords and investors. CCHPR put forward six potential scenarios of rent stabilisation, from a one off rent freeze for three years, through to linking rent rises to wage rises. The study found that the majority of landlords would continue as they are if rents could only be increased in line with inflation, although 40% of participants stated that they would sell some or all of their properties if this measure was introduced. What's more, the report claims that on the whole landlords taking part are not keen to offer longer tenancies but 52% said they would be more inclined to do so if tax incentives were available for doing so. ‘Much has been said from all sides about rent controls but the debate has been sorely lacking in facts, so it's incredibly useful to have these set out in this report,’ said Tom Copley, chair of the London Assembly Housing Committee. ‘The choice is not simply between regulating rents and not regulating rents. There is no one size fits all system of rent control, with many cities around the world adopting different models. Each system has upsides and downsides,’ he explained. ‘In terms of what would work for London we need solutions that work for the millions of Londoners, especially families, in the rental sector. For families, the prospect of having to up sticks with very little notice often means disruption to many aspects of their lives, including schooling and employment,’ he added. According to David Smith, policy director for the Residential Landlords Association, it is clear that the country will need more homes to rent, if it is to address the housing crisis. ‘This report reminds us of the dangers of rent controls which would in fact reduce supply, thereby increasing rents. Rent controls would also severely reduce standards in rented housing as investment dries up,’ he said. Continue reading
Pending home sales fall across the United States, latest index shows
Pending home sales in the United States cooled in September for the second month in a row, taking them to their second lowest index reading in 2015, according to the latest index. All four major regions experienced a pullback in activity in September, the Pending Home Sales Index, a forward looking indicator based on contract signings, from the National Association of Realtors shows. The index declined 2.3% to 106.8 in September from a slightly downwardly revised 109.3 in August but is still 3% above September 2014 when it was 103.7. With last month's decline, the index is now at its second lowest level of the year but has still increased year on year for 13 straight months. Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said that a combination of factors likely led to September's dip in contract signings. ‘There continues to be a dearth of available listings in the lower end of the market for first time buyers and realtors in many areas are reporting stronger competition than what's normal this time of year because of stubbornly low inventory conditions,’ he explained. ‘Additionally, the rockiness in the financial markets at the end of the summer and signs of a slowing US economy may be causing some prospective buyers to take a wait and see approach,’ he added. Despite contract activity softening from the more robust levels seen earlier this year, Yun believes the housing market will still likely be one of the brighter spots in the economy in coming months. ‘With interest rates hovering around 4%, rents rising at a near eight year high, and job growth holding strong, albeit at a more modest pace than earlier this year, the overall demand for buying should stay at a healthy level despite some weakness in the overall economy,’ he added. The PHSI in the Northeast fell 4% to 89.6 in September, but is still 3.9% above a year ago. In the Midwest the index declined 2.5% to 104.7 in September, but remains 4.3% above September 2014. Pending home sales in the South decreased 2.6% to an index of 118.3 in September and are now 0.1% below last September. The index in the West inched back 0.2% in September to 104.4, but is still 6.6% above a year ago. Continue reading
