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Annual house price growth in Scotland twice that of rest of UK
House prices remain resilient in Scotland despite property tax change and are up 10.3% year on year, twice the annual growth seen in England and Wales. The average house prices is now £180,892, according to the latest LSL house price index, but values fell by 2.1% in May which is regarded as being due to the introduction of the new Land and Buildings Transaction Tax (LBTT). Indeed the tax has also put a brake on sales which declined 10% month on month, and again this figure is affected by the LBTT as there was a rush of sales being completed before it was introduced in April. The tax had the most impact on the £1 million plus property sector with only one property in this price band sold in two months. Properties over £750,000 now pay 12% in tax. But generally the market is in good shape, according to the report. In Glasgow, for example, house prices finally surpassed 2007 levels, reaching a new record of £146,286 due to high demand. ‘Two months into Scotland’s new transaction tax regime, and the impact of the overhaul is still reverberating around the property market,’ said Christine Campbell, Your Move managing director in Scotland. She explained that the general election was a fresh source of uncertainty for those considering the best time to move home and it has been an up and down time for buyers and sellers and as a result it is harder to make out the underlying course of the market. ‘Yet the trends that can be gleaned are positive. Scottish house prices are up by more than 10% on an annual basis, and the sentiment from buyers in our branches is upbeat as the stability of the housing recovery shines though,’ said Campbell. ‘There is no denying that the recent tax turbulence has affected property prices in the shorter term, with the latest monthly dip testament to further shock waves of the LBTT, as the market continues to absorb the change. May’s monthly fall of 2.1%, equal to £4,000, is the largest backwards step we’ve experienced for nearly six years,’ she pointed out. However, she also pointed out that this must be considered in the context of following an exceptional leap in March, when prices soared a record breaking £16,000 as a result of frenetic movement at the top end of the housing market, with 84 properties worth £1 million or more changing hands before the stamp duty switchover. ‘But since the new regime was enforced, there’s been only one million pound home sold in Scotland in the past two months, which is reining back current measures of growth,’ she added. During May, it was the most expensive parts of Scotland that saw average property prices slip backwards, in absence of some higher value sales. For example, house prices in Edinburgh have dropped 5.7% since April, while East Lothian saw an 11.2% monthly drop in May. ‘But overall, the… Continue reading
Asking prices in England and Wales up 0.4% in last month
Residential property asking prices in England and Wales increased by 0.4% overall in the last month and by 5.7% compared with a year ago, the latest index data shows. Monthly asking price growth was led by the East of England, up 0.7% since June, according to the Asking Price Index from Home.co.uk The data also shows that property is selling faster. The average time on the market for England and Wales dropped to 177 days, the lowest figure since November 2008 and the South East remains the fastest regional market, with a typical time on market of 59 days. Overall the supply of property for sale remains low, down by 6% in June 2015 compared to June 2014. However there are signs of oversupply in the North East and as a result asking prices are down by 0.8% The index report says that a resurgence of buyer demand continues to drive prices higher, predominantly in London and the South of England, bolstering confidence amongst vendors. ‘The UK property market is in good shape overall. Property supply remains behind buyer demand in most regions as evidenced by falling time on market figures. In Greater London, where marketing times showed a worrying increase earlier in the year, a post-election buyer resurgence has taken up the slack. Only in the North East region, where the recovery is still in its infancy, do we see a significant rise in supply and this has served to make prices dip this month,’ said the firm’s director Doug Shephard. The index also suggests that the prime central London market is showing signs of renewed momentum. After a prolonged period in the doldrums, prices there have indicated a new upward trend since May and time on market figures are beginning to fall. Time on market data for the regions shows that the northern markets of Yorkshire and the North East are the most improved over the last 12 months, recording decreases in typical time on market of 9% and 6% respectively. However, they remain among the slowest markets when compared to the rest of the UK. It is only London and the southern regions that show marketing times indicating a similar vigour to the property market pre-crisis. ‘With the recent political uncertainty now consigned to history, UK property has a clear path forward. Consequently, buyers are back in force but hampered by a lack of supply in most regions. We expect only minor price rises towards the end of this year,’ explained Shephard. ‘Demand, on the other hand, looks set to remain high, with indications from the Bank of England that interest rates will stay at their record low until at least next year, perhaps later. Hence, we expect that further competition between aspirant homeowners and landlords will continue to drive prices higher in a growing number of areas, especially in the South,’ he pointed out. ‘Contrarily, despite clear improvements in marketing times, prices remain stagnant in the North of England… Continue reading
UK govt revises its medium term house price growth forecast downward
The UK government thinks house prices will grow sat a slower rate than previously expected in the medium term, mainly due to changes in lending. The latest forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) reveal that overall, house prices are expected to rise by 34.1% by the first quarter of 2021 with the outlook revised from the last guidance which was issued in March. The OBR cites changes to the regulatory environment as well as changes to lenders’ behaviour brought about by the Mortgage Market Review (MMR) which came into play in April 2014 as reasons for the revision. As a result, the estimated cumulative level of house price growth by the first quarter of 2020 is 5% lower than it was in the March forecast so the growth prediction is now 34.1% by the first quarter of 2021. The OBR has also revised its forecasts for Stamp Duty revenue which is now forecast to raise £11.5 billion in 2015/2016, rising to £17.3 billion in 2019/2020 compared with the March forecast of £10.4 billion £18 billion respectively. So, compared with its March forecast, SDLT receipts are expected to be £1.1 billion higher in 2015/2016 but £0.7 billion lower by 2019/2020. The OBR said it has changed its short term forecast for stamp duty receipts because residential property transactions were higher than expected at the end of the 2014/2015 financial year, a trend it expects will continue. In the long term, lower house prices relative to the March forecast reduce receipts by around £1.2 billion in 2019/2020. Meanwhile, the selling market is expected to be busier this summer. Traditionally the prime months for selling houses were March through to the end of June with a second period of activity in September and October. These two seasons reflected the end of spring and school summer holidays. However, according to real estate firm Knight Frank there has been a change in recent years, with the market continuing through the usually quieter summer months. The number of properties sold by Knight Frank between June and August 2014 was in fact 25% higher than in 2013. ‘The increase in summer activity is a reflection on a number of factors including the popularity of holidays being taken in the UK and thus being able to see a house more quickly and the rise of the internet allowing holiday makers to browse their tablets and phones whilst relaxing,’ said Rupert Sweeting, head of Knight Frank Country. ‘We are seeing this happen again this year principally as the election made many buyers put their decisions on hold until after the result was known. As a result the market is six to eight weeks late. We already have a high level of house bookings going forward this month and in August,’ he added. Continue reading
