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UK home owners should factor in interest rate rise sooner rather than later
Home owners and those thinking of buying a home should budget for an interest rate rise after the Bank of England indicated that it expects to see interest rates rise sooner rather than later. But Banks of England governor Mark Carney refused to be drawn on whether this would be before the end of the year and indicated that it will depend on factors such as the state of the euro and what happens in Greece. Interest rates in the UK have been at a record low of 0.5% since March 2009 but Carney said that the time for an increase is ‘drawing closer’. He said that the decision would be determined by looking at economic data including wage growth, productivity and import figures. He also said that the increases, when they came, would be gradual and limited to a level below past averages and line with his previous forecasts of how rates will change. Experts are divided as to when the rise might happen. Andrew Burrell, head of forecasting at JLL, believes it is unlikely that rates will rise before the first quarter of next year. ‘Despite wage rises and a recovering UK, a muted inflation forecast and global economic headwinds mean that interest rates are likely to stay the same for a couple more quarters,’ he said. Barry Naisbitt, chief economist of Santander UK, also believes that economic uncertainties still exist to prevent an immediate rate rise and John McNeill, co-manager of the Kames Absolute Return Bond Global Fund, thinks it will not happen until 2016. Property buyers need to recognise that rates will move sooner rather than later, according to Nicholas Leeming, chairman of agents Jackson-Stops & Staff. ‘The decision to maintain interest rates at the current, historically low levels comes as no surprise. However Mark Carney has been careful to flag that interest rates will edge higher in the longer term as the economy continues to grow and inflationary pressure on wages increase,’ he said. ‘Property buyers should recognise that rates will move towards more sustainable, long term levels and so budget for higher mortgage costs accordingly. Vendors should be aware that any such increases will create resistance to overly high guide prices,’ he added. Steve Bolton, founder of Platinum Property Partners, pointed out that the UK housing market as a whole has enjoyed six years of historically low interest rates. He believes that those who have invested in buy to let property over this period have also benefitted from high levels of demand for private rental accommodation across the country. ‘This has meant that the return on investment for buy to let has been strong, with many investors also seeing an impressive growth in the value of their properties. But the announcement that the base rate could start to rise soon has implications for the housing market,’ he said. ‘On the one hand, more expensive mortgage rates will possibly put a dampener on demand for borrowing, but on… Continue reading
Rent controls not best way forward for young people to access housing in Europe
A group of over 30 private housing and property bodies from across Europe have come together to find solutions on how to improve younger people’s participation in the housing market. The International Union of Property Owners (UIPI), which represents more than five million property owners around Europe, says that there enormous challenges for young people accessing housing and rent controls are not necessarily the best way forward. At its Annual Congress, UIPI committed to continuing to discuss solutions on how to improve young generations’ participation in the housing market, by fostering home ownership and promoting access to affordable housing. ‘Young generations’ access to the housing market is a major issue of the running decade and it needs to be tackled. UIPI has a clear role to play in this debate and we have to promote solutions that stimulate the inclusion of young Europeans in the European housing market,’ said UIPI president Stratos Paradias. He pointed out that the new generation faces higher unemployment which is reaching some worrying rates in a number of European Union countries, and many have low and unstable incomes. ‘This is the harsh reality owed to the financial crisis making difficult for them to access home ownership market through mortgage loans despite current low interest rates,’ he explained. ‘Even our own children, who should inherit our own home and properties, are reluctant to do so, because they might be unable to cope with the payment of the transfer and inheritance taxes, not to mention the annual property taxation imposed in more and more countries, at ever increasing and alarming levels,’ he pointed out. ‘This situation forces an increased number of young Europeans to live with their parents, or to be financially dependent on them, postponing their family plans. It also puts additional pressures on the residential rental market,’ he added. He also explained that the burden on both the private and social housing sectors is amplified by population migration, notably of young EU citizens leaving their country of origin in search of suitable jobs, in already densified areas of the European centres of economic activities. ‘Low incomes, tightened lending and demand pressure on rental housing is a combination that generates political demands for stricter rent regulation, rent control or further investment in public housing and/or housing allowances. Rather than imposing rent control and high taxation, we believe that we have to correct the damages of the crisis in a way that does not endanger financial as well as macroeconomic stability,’ Paradias concluded. Richard Price, director of operations at the UK’s National Landlords Association (NLA) and executive director at the Association of Letting Agents (ALA) explained that younger generations are finding it much harder to enter the housing market across Europe. ‘Increasing the supply of affordable housing is the most likely factor to improve the situation in the UK, but this needs to go hand in hand with a stable economy and confidence in employment prospects,’ he said. The meeting… Continue reading
Portuguese residential property market recovery ongoing
The residential real estate market in Portugal is seeing an ongoing steady recovery in prices, supported by rising demand and increasingly strong growth in sales activity, according to the latest index. While the lettings market has seen rents stable for a fourth month in succession following years of persistent decline, the index survey from the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) and Confidencial Imobiliário shows. The data also shows that new buyer interest continued to rise at a firm pace across all regional markets, with growth particularly pronounced in Porto during June. But the market is still open to the weakness of the euro zone, particularly Greece. At the same time, newly agreed sales increased at the sharpest monthly pace since the survey was launched back in 2010, and have now risen continuously for around a year and a half. Going forward, sales expectations are pointing to further robust growth in the near term, even if the net balance eased slightly from the record high set in May. Given the sustained improvement in both enquiries and sales, prices continued to recover for a sixth month in succession, the index report explains. It also points out that the pace of house price growth accelerated a notch, driven primarily by the strong gains posted in Lisbon and looking ahead, near term price expectations continue to point to a stronger pick-up on the horizon. Over the next 12 months, respondents are now anticipating prices will rise by 2.7% at the national level. Again, the strongest recovery is anticipated to come in Lisbon and the Algarve at around 3%, while projections are for 2% growth in Porto. The national confidence indicator, an amalgamation of near term price and sales expectations, now stands at +36 equalling the third highest reading on record, despite easing compared to May’s exceptionally strong result. In the lettings market, solid growth in demand continues to be met with a decline in the number of new listings by landlords. As a result, rents remained more or less unchanged for a fourth consecutive month, while expectations suggest a further period of stability lies ahead. ‘It is important to see the Portuguese market’s resilience in the face of the uncertainty caused by the Greek crisis,’ said Ricardo Guimarães, Director of Ci. ‘Risks were highlighted by the agents but, nevertheless, activity indicators remained clearly positive, regarding both sales and prices. This was a critical test for the market, reinforcing its potential,’ he added. RICS chief economist, Simon Rubinsohn, believes that the recovery in sales market activity appears to be gathering momentum, driven by improving economic fundamentals and rising confidence. ‘However, significant risks remain within the euro area which could damage sentiment if a resolution is not found,’ he warned. Continue reading
