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UK house prices set to rise by 6% this year, says RICS
Acceleration in national house price growth in the UK is being reinforced by the continued imbalance between falling new instructions to sell and rising buyer demand, according to the latest market report. The August 2015 residential market survey report from the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) says that the shortage of housing stock is driving prices higher and the organisation now predicts that house prices are set to rise by 6% in 2015. The RICS price indicator reached a 15 month high in August, with a net balance of 53% more respondents reporting price-rises, and firm growth being seen across all areas of the UK. Further analysis, using Office for National Statistics’ data as the comparator, indicates that prices now look likely to rise in the region of 6% over the course of 2015, compared with 3% predicted at the beginning of the year. The strongest price growth is forecast in Northern Ireland, where prices are now anticipated to rise by 11% throughout 2015. Both near and medium term price expectations series from the survey are reflective of the imbalance between demand and supply. Some 37% more members are expecting prices to continue to rise over the next three months and 76% over the coming year. Meanwhile the agreed sales balance edged upwards for the fourth successive month but a more robust recovery in activity is continuing to be held back in part by the lack of stock on the market. The data also shows that new buyer enquiries increased for a fifth month in succession, with 22% of respondents reporting a rise in demand, led by significant improvements in the West Midlands, Wales and the North West. New instructions, however, have yet to record any meaningful upturn since the middle of 2013, pushing average stock levels to record lows. 'While the UK housing market has seen some substantial volatility in demand over the last 18 months, the most consistent feature has been a distinct shortage of new instructions,' said RICS economist Michael Hanley. 'With respondents reporting another fall in appraisals during August, and looking at general market conditions, we have no reason to believe this will change in the near term. Therefore, despite the fact that demand has been picking up in recent months, we have lowered our forecast for transactions for 2015 from 1.25 million to 1.2 million. Alongside this, we have revised our expectations for price gains this year up to 6%,' he explained. When it come to the lettings market the report reveals that tenant demand rose at a steady pace for the eighth successive month, outstripping the modest pick-up in new landlord instructions. Accordingly, rents are expected to increase in the near term, with 34% of respondents predicting a rise in rents during the next three months. 'Given current market conditions, the latest data unsurprisingly shows house prices continuing to rise, and at an accelerating pace. As such, house price inflation has now quickened in each of the last seven months following a sustained period of easing towards the… Continue reading
Easy mortgage access for home buyers in the US tightens
Access to mortgage credit in the United States tightened in the first quarter of 2015, marking a pause in easy accessibility for buyers. It had been getting progressively easier to obtain a mortgage since 2012, but the first several months of this year marked a change, according to according to the latest Zillow Mortgage Access Index (ZMAI). Mortgage credit availability is almost unchanged from a year ago, meaning despite fluctuations from quarter to quarter, there has been little progress toward making mortgages easier to obtain over the last year. In the long term, experts expect mortgage access to continue improving. In a survey earlier this summer of more than 100 economists and housing experts, more than 60% said they expect mortgage regulations to loosen further, with many expressing concern the market will become too lax over the next year. A high number in the Zillow Mortgage Access Index means credit is easier to obtain, while a lower number means credit is tighter. Mortgage credit was easiest to obtain in July 2004, when the ZMAI reached 136.4. But availability tightened over the next few years. In May 2007, both the housing and mortgage availability began a multi year plunge, leaving home values down more than 22% and credit the tightest in recent history. Mortgages were the toughest to obtain in September 2010, when the ZMAI was at 11.8. Today, access to mortgage credit has improved significantly, and is at 65, more than two thirds of the way back to 2002 pre-crisis levels. 'Recent market volatility is causing some lenders to be more cautious in their underwriting. Tighter mortgage access will make it harder for people with low credit scores to get a home loan, and even people who can get approved for a mortgage will have fewer options in terms of available mortgage products,' said Zillow chief economist Svenja Gudell. Continue reading
Research suggests potential buyers are not savvy about UK mortgage rules
Two thirds of potential house buyers in the UK do not understand the new mortgage rules which were introduced last year, new research has found. Some 31% of people who plan to buy a property within the next two years are unaware that mortgage rules were overhauled more than a year ago and a further 35% did know that the regulations had changed, the study by lender and broker Ocean Finance shows. In April 2014, the biggest piece of mortgage regulation in a decade came into force. The changes, brought in by the Financial Conduct Authority, mean lenders must take additional steps to ensure borrowers only get a mortgage they can afford. In practice, the new mortgage rules mean that borrowers face increased scrutiny from lenders about their incomes and their expenditure including spending on things such as childcare, holidays and entertainment. Yet 70% of those questioned were unaware that lenders are required to look closely at their spending. Consequently, a quarter said they haven’t changed their spending habits to help them qualify for a mortgage. Of those who do know that lenders are now required to examine spending, more than a fifth have reduced their spending on treats and have stopped contributing to life assurance and pensions to keep a greater proportion of their income in their bank accounts. The research also found that just 24% of aspiring home buyers questioned were aware that the new rules also test their ability to afford a mortgage if interest rates rise. And even fewer, 16%, knew that the rules would also test their ability to withstand changes to their personal circumstances. To help demystify the new rules and ensure they are prepared to apply for a mortgage, almost a fifth of potential buyers have sought advice from an independent mortgage broker and 30% have looked online for information about the rules. But 14% have relied on their friends or family for advice and a third have not sought any advice on applying for a mortgage. The research shows that a third of potential home buyers are so concerned about the tougher mortgage rules that they expect to have to delay buying a house so they can save for a bigger deposit and get into a stronger position to obtain a mortgage. 'More than a year after the new mortgage rules were introduced, potential buyers are still in a state of confusion about what they mean in reality. Even more worrying is that a large chunk of people who are gearing up to apply for a home loan are not even aware that the mortgage rules have changed,' said Gareth Shilton, Ocean’s spokesperson. 'As an industry, we need to do more to educate buyers and to guide them through a process which many people are finding understandably daunting. For anyone who plans to apply for a mortgage in the next year, it's key that their finances are in order, including checking their credit file… Continue reading
