Tag Archives: europe
UK housing supply crisis deepens as new stock falls to post economic downturn low
The total stock of property for sale in the UK has fallen to a new post economic crisis low with 45% fewer properties for sale than in November 2007, according to the latest index report. It also shows that average annual asking price growth in England and Wales increased further to 7.3%, driven by lack of supply with the shortage affecting all regions but particularly London, the South East and the East of England. Consequently, prices in these regions continue to rise at an alarming rate, well ahead of the national average. Over the last 12 months, asking prices in London, the East and South East of England have risen by 12.5%, 9.8% and 9.4% respectively. Meanwhile, the number of properties coming on to the market in the same regions is down by 15%, 13% and 10% respectively. However it is not a uniform picture, according to the asking price index from Home.co.uk. Prices have slid in the North East and Yorkshire during the last month. Asking prices were down 0.1% month on month in Yorkshire and Humberside and down 0.5% in the North East where prices are also stagnant compared to a year ago. Indeed, as a whole prices in the northern regions and Wales continue to stagnate. Annualised price changes for the North East, North West and Yorkshire of just 0.0%, 1.2% and 1.9% respectively indicate that demand levels remain depressed relative to the South. Welsh property has fared a little better with home prices rising by 2.7% over the last year, but still a long way behind the mix-adjusted average price rise for England and Wales of 7.3%. Overall, the current mix-adjusted average asking price for England and Wales is now 25.8% higher than it was in November 2010. Further upward pressure on this headline figure will come from London, the East and South East of England over the next year. North of the border, Scottish home prices are rising more quickly, up 4.7% over the last year and 6.4% since November 2010. Sellers there are obviously patient, as the typical time on market is 114 days, 16 days longer than the figure for England and Wales. The Aberdeen property market has been adversely affected by plunging oil and gas prices, and properties on the market there have been piling up. Meanwhile, the Edinburgh market is experiencing a boom, with prices driven up 13% over the last year and supply falling away. Further south, the northern English regions show relatively poor home price growth. Of those, the North East property market has suffered the most over the last five years. Prices are falling in many towns in the region, such as Billingham, mainly due to the downturn in the petrochemical industries. Crime and joblessness continue to adversely affect many of the larger urban areas. However, pockets of significant growth do exist, such as prosperous market towns like Yarm. The South East continues to show massive price growth and… Continue reading
Buy to let mortgage lending still the star in the UK housing market
Mortgage lending to first time buyers in the UK increased by volume month on month and on an annual basis in September, the latest data from the Council of Mortgage Lenders shows. However, in contrast, lending to people moving home saw a dip in September compared to August, but grew by volume and by value compared to a year ago while home owner remortgage activity rebounded after a dip in August to increased levels in September both compared to a month ago and the same time last year. The buy to let sector continues to grow and saw year on year increases by volume and by value in both buy to let house purchase and buy to let remortgage sectors. The CML data also shows that first time buyers increased in number of loans advanced and amount borrowed both in comparison to quarter two and the third quarter last year and home mover lending saw a similar trend to first time buyers but the percentage increases by volume and by value were higher. Home owner remortgage activity saw an increase compared to the second quarter of the year, but a more substantial increase compared to the third quarter 2014 while buy to let saw large quarter on quarter and year on year increases by number of loans and amount borrowed. Paul Smee, director general of the CML, pointed out that the mortgage market had a slow start to the year. ‘This quarter shows it is now firmly on an upward trajectory. With competitive rates and high levels of product choice currently available, alongside generally improving economic conditions, we expect this to continue as we head into the New Year,’ he explained. ‘Buy to let continues its growth this period, but at 18% of new lending in September remains the fourth largest lending type behind first time buyers, home movers and remortgage. There were five times as many house purchase loans to home-owners as buy to let landlords in September, and the growth in buy to let lending largely continues to reflect its more belated recovery from recession,’ he added. According to Rishi Passi, chief executive officer of Oblix Capital, on the one hand Help to Buy has driven up borrowing by first time buyers both in volume and value and on the other, there is little sign that impending buy to let tax restrictions are dissuading landlords from expanding their portfolios. ‘Meanwhile cheap money is allowing lenders to offer historically attractive rates to the market and as a consequence lenders are enjoying their best spell since 2008, enticing first time buyers and developers alike to move and borrow,’ he said. Rob Weaver, director of investments at property crowdfunding platform Property Partner, the growth in buy to let lending underlines the continued confidence UK investors have in this asset class. ‘As an asset class buy to let is also… Continue reading
Country house market in UK above £2 million seeing recovery
The UK’s country house market has seen a marked recovery in the £2 million plus sector in the third quarter of 2015 compared to the previous two quarters, according to the latest research. The analysis report from Strutt & Parker also shows that sales levels are now not far off where they were in the fourth quarter of 2014, suggesting that the market uncertainty from the general election has perhaps filtered out. Strutt & Parker’s UK outlook for the remainder of 2015 looks positive and it predicts that there will be sufficient growth in the final quarter of the year to hit the forecast of 5.0% for 2015. Growth over the next few years is also forecast as positive with 5% per annum anticipated. There are, however, uncertainties for the UK market and the upcoming European Union referendum and potential interest rate rises adds further pressures. Despite this, sensibly priced and good quality properties, both regionally and in prime central London, will continue to do well, the firm believes. ‘There remains some uncertainty over the near term outlook for the national housing market. The gradual strengthening in growth within the UK economy is still being met by some caution against risk and interest rates are expected to begin rising early to mid 2016,’ said Stephanie McMahon, head of research at Strutt & Parker. ‘Once rates do begin to rise they may have a dampening effect on the national housing market, most specifically in the mainstream markets where the majority of purchases are dependent upon mortgages,’ she explained. ‘However, two factors should cushion this impact. First, interest rate rises are likely to be gradual, estimated to reach circa 2% to 2.5% over the next five years. Secondly, the majority, 75% to 80%, f recent mortgages have been at fixed rates. Both of these factors should mean that any adjustments in purchasers’ behaviour should also be gradual,’ she added. Her colleague, James Mackenzie, head of the country house department at Strutt & Parker, also agrees that the prime country house market is showing signs of improvement with a lack of high value property on the market and growth in demand over the quarter. ‘However, buyers are incredibly price sensitive as the cost of stamp duty is still a major hurdle. We are hopeful for a normalised autumn and winter,’ he added. Guy Robinson, head of regional residential agency at Strutt & Parker, pointed out that activity in the summer and early autumn months has shown encouraging signs of an improving market. ‘Last quarter, there was strong demand from buyers which has translated into agreed sales. The number of new instructions has remained static, consistent with the previous period,’ he said. Continue reading
