Tag Archives: europe
UK property prices broadly stable with policy changes and a potential EU vote on horizon
Average UK house prices rose by 0.3% in January, and are up 4.4% year on year, remaining broadly stable, according to the latest analysis report. Prime central London prices rose by 0.1% last month to take annual growth to 1.2% while prime central London rents dipped by 0.3%, says the report from real estate firm Knight Frank. The data also shows that price growth for prime property in some regional hubs continues to outperform the wider prime country house market. The stability in UK property prices is likely to be underpinned by a further period of ultra-low interest rates and a solid, although slowing, economic recovery but the report warns that the political outlook is less clear as an European Union referendum draws closer. Grainne Gilmore, head of UK residential research at Knight Frank, pointed out that interest rates being left unchanged by the Bank of England for the 83rd consecutive month in February was not a surprise. ‘But the data released by the Bank when announcing its decision has led economists and markets to change their expectations about when rates may start to rise. Whereas many had forecast a rise around the middle of the year, the verdict is now that rates are on hold until the final quarter of the year, if not 2018,’ she said. ‘This change was prompted by the Bank’s forecasts, showing muted inflation and wage growth in the coming years as well as a downgrade in forecast GDP growth. The central bank now expects 2.2% GDP growth this year, instead of 2.5%. The slower growth is attributed to global economic conditions, not least the effect lower oil prices are having on many economies around the world,’ she explained. ‘However, senior bank officials were clear that the UK economy was still experiencing a solid recovery and that the fall in oil prices was a net good for UK consumers, helping boost consumption and therefore wage growth,’ she added. Households expect prices to continue rising this year according to the latest House Price Sentiment Index (HPSI) from Knight Frank and Markit Economics. Any reading above 50 on this index, which is a bellwether for house prices, suggests prices are rising, or are set to rise. The future index has now been above 50 for 35 consecutive months. However, Gilmore also said that the outlook for 2016 must take into account the policy changes and political decisions which will be made this year, not least another change to the stamp duty regime in April, the Mayoral Elections in London in May and a possible decision on whether the UK should stay in the European Union. ‘As seen following the stamp duty changes in December 2014, and last year’s General Election, the market can adjust to political and policy changes, but periods of uncertainty can take their own toll on market activity,’ she added. While prime central London property prices edged up by 0.1% in January, taking the annual increase to 1.2%, a breakdown… Continue reading
Home prices set to rise 5.4% in the United States in 2016
Home prices across the United States, including distressed sales, increased year on year by 6.3% in December 2015 and increased month on month by 0.8%, the latest index shows. And forecast data from the CoreLogic House Price Index also indicates that home prices are set to rise by 5.4% this year. ‘Nationally, home prices have been rising at a 5% to 6% annual rate for more than a year,’ said Frank Nothaft, chief economist for CoreLogic. However, he added that local market growth can vary substantially from that. For example, some metropolitan areas have had double digit appreciation, such as Denver and Naples, Florida, while others have had price declines, like New Orleans and Rochester, New York. ‘Higher property valuations appear to be driving up single-family construction as we head into the spring. Additional housing stock, especially in urban centres on the coasts such as San Francisco, could help to temper home price growth in the longer term,’ said Anand Nallathambi, president and chief executive officer of CoreLogic. ‘In the short and medium term, local markets with strong employment growth are likely to experience a continued rise in home sales and price growth well above the US average,’ he added. Meanwhile, research from real estate firm Zillow shows that buyers in Boston, New York, and Washington, D.C. have to stay in a home for at least three years to break even on a home purchase, and buyers in the Bay Area would have to stay nearly that long to make buying financially advantageous. In general, Americans can break even on a home purchase in less than two years in 70% of US metros and the firm says that this is thanks to low interest rates, healthy home value forecasts, and the relatively fast pace of rents in recent years. The Breakeven Horizon index shows that on average you don't need to plan on living in a home for even two years to make purchasing the home more financially advantageous than renting it over the same time period. Among large housing markets, the Breakeven Horizon is longest in Washington, D.C. at 4.5 years and shortest in Dallas at 1.3 years. Around the country over the last year, the Breakeven Horizon quickened in most of the Midwest and Southeast as well as in the Northeast corridor from New York to Boston. The Horizon stretched longer in Florida, Northern California, and in the Northeast from Virginia Beach to Philadelphia, but it remained clear that financially, it's still a better deal to buy a home than rent it, assuming you're planning to stay in the home for at least a couple years. ‘Even with record high rents in places like San Jose, Boston and Washington, D.C., putting off a home purchase might be the best financial decision for a young person who has saved enough for a down payment, depending on how long they intend to stay in their jobs and homes,’ said Zillow chief economist Svenja… Continue reading
Amendments to tenancies bill in Scotland could hit provision of rural homes
New amendments to the Private Housing (Tenancies) Bill in Scotland have the potential to create significant problems for the provision of rural homes, it is claimed. The Bill has reached its stage two process within the Scottish Parliament with the Infrastructure and Capital Investment Committee meeting to discuss amendments that have been lodged. In total, 198 amendments had been submitted to the original draft Bill, demonstrating the depth of feeling regarding the future of the private rented sector and perhaps indicating there has been a lack of thorough consideration due to rushed timescales. However, Scottish Land and Estates said that it was particularly concerned that an amendment by Alex Johnstone MSP to allow a landlord to ask a tenant to leave in order to accommodate a new or retiring employee had been rejected. ‘The Scottish Government has stated repeatedly that the aim is for a simpler tenancy which strikes a fair balance by offering tenants more security and giving landlords robust and comprehensive grounds so they have the confidence to let without fear of not being able to recover possession under reasonable circumstances,’ said Katy Dickson, policy officer for business and property at Scottish Land and Estates. ‘The drafted legislation went some way towards this balance point but disappointingly a number of amendments which were approved will leave landlords dismayed that the new tenancy will bring the uncertainty and imbalance that they feared at the outset of the Bill,’ she explained. One of the main concerns for rural landlords is the rejection of Alex Johnstone’s amendment to allow a landlord to repossess a property in order to house a new employee or retired employee. ‘This ground would come with a full notice period and prior notification at the outset of the lease so that security was not lessened on all let property. Without this ground the ability for rural businesses to grow is restricted and landlords may well choose to move property out of the long term letting market into a holiday home or decide to leave it empty,’ Dickson explained. She said that frustration is growing at the Scottish Government’s continued lack of appreciation of the importance of this ground. ‘The Housing Minister repeatedly stated that a family should not be moved out to allow an employee to move in but has failed to recognise that an employee often comes with a family. The fact that there is similar uncontested ground for religious workers adds further confusion as why can tenants’ security be lessened for religious workers but not farm workers?’ added Dickson. She accused the Scottish Government of making a surprising U-turn by proposing an amendment to remove the initial period when they had previously stated that this provided landlords and tenants with security. ‘This was a disproportionate reaction to some campaign groups raising fears that it may be problematic for a limited number of people… Continue reading
