Tag Archives: crisis
Outlook for new home construction in Australia expected to be strong
The new homes market in Australia is expected to be healthy in the coming year with land sales up, especially in regional areas. Quarterly residential land sales held up at reasonably elevated levels throughout 2013/2014, with 10% growth, according to the latest HIA-RP Data Residential Land Report provided by the Housing Industry Association. HIA chief economist Harley Dale explained that the June quarter was particularly with residential land sales up by 8.4%. ‘Both capital city and regional land markets experienced higher turnover during the June 2014 quarter. Growth was stronger in the aggregate regional land markets, up 13% compared to a 5.5% rise for Australia’s six state capitals,’ he said. ‘Consistent with signals from other housing indicators, the geographical recovery in residential land sales is broadening. That is an encouraging sign for detached and semi-detached dwelling construction in 2014/2015,’ he added. However, he pointed out that there is still a wide variation in the trajectory of residential land values around Australia this cycle, within which growth in the weighted median price for capital cities well out-paces that for regional Australia. ‘Over the longer time frame of the past fifteen years there has been a substantial increase in residential land values, which cannot be repeated if the nation is to succeed in adequately housing its growing and ageing population. Land supply remains a policy area that requires much greater focus, and not just at a state level,’ Dale said. In the June 2014 quarter the weighted median price of residential land increased by 1.1% to $205,330, only the third time the value has exceeded the $200,000 threshold. Capital city land prices increased by 1.8% in the quarter to be up by 7.4% compared to the June 2013 quarter. Land prices in regional Australia were essentially flat in the June 2014 quarter, easing by 0.1% but up by 4.1% in annual terms. According to RP Data research director, Tim Lawless, the bounce back after a softer March quarter result suggests there may still be some life left in the residential land sector. ‘This is the strongest result since the June quarter of 2013 which is welcome news. A rise in land sales implies a rise in detached housing construction about six months down the track which in turn provides a substantial multiplier for the Australian economy; more jobs, more building materials, home furnishings, appliances and white good sales,’ said Lawless. ‘Whether this quarterly improvement can develop into a trend is yet to be seen. Despite the June quarter lift, the previous three quarters were showing a slowdown in the number of sales while vacant land prices continued to rise, a trend which may point to ongoing supply shortages of well-located vacant land,’ he added. Continue reading
Latest index provides further evidence of UK house price growth slowing
UK house prices increased by 0.5% in October but annual residential property price growth slowed to 9%, according to the latest index from the Nationwide building society. It is the second month in a row when annual property price growth has fallen and Nationwide chief economist Robert Gardner said that a variety of indicators suggest that the market has lost momentum. ‘The number of mortgages approved for house purchase in September was almost 20% below the level prevailing at the start of the year. Some forward looking indicators, such as new buyer enquiries, suggest that activity may soften further in the near term, especially in London,’ he pointed out. ‘However, broader economic indicators remain positive. The labour market has continued to improve, with the unemployment rate falling to 6% in the three months to August and mortgage rates have fallen back towards all-time lows. Indicators of consumer confidence have also remained close to recent highs,’ he explained. ‘If the economy and the labour market remain in good shape, activity is likely to pick up in the quarters ahead providing mortgage rates do not rise sharply,’ he added. The Nationwide report also points out that an increasing number of borrowers have been opting for fixed rate mortgage deals in recent times. Data from the Council of Mortgage Lenders suggests that around 90% of new mortgages were contracted on fixed rates in recent months, up from 67% two years ago. ‘Fixed rate deals are most popular amongst first time buyers for whom certainty over monthly payments is likely to be particularly important. Some 95% of new mortgage lending to first time buyers is currently on fixed rates,’ said Gardner. ‘Borrowers taking out fixed rate mortgages have benefited from historically low interest rates. For example, the average two year fix for those with a 25% deposit is currently 2.46%. While this is a little higher than earlier this year, it is still more than one percentage point below the level prevailing in 2012. Moreover, for borrowers with a 10% deposit, the rates available for two year fixes are the lowest on record,’ he explained. ‘This has helped, in part, to offset the negative impact of rising house prices on affordability. Indeed, even though house prices are at an all-time high, the cost of servicing a typical mortgage is still close to the long term average as a share of take home pay,’ he added. However, despite the high proportion of new mortgage lending on fixed rates, the majority of the stock of outstanding mortgages, around 60%, is on variable interest rates. Gardner said this is a marked shift from the pre-crisis period where the proportion of mortgages on variable rates was 38%. Moreover, the majority of recent fixes are for relatively short time periods with 62% for two years and around 30% for five years. Gardner believes that the housing market should be able to cope with higher interest rates, provided the increase is gradual and the economy and the labour… Continue reading
UK estate agents see surge in home hunters as supply remains low
The number of house hunters recorded by estate agents in the UK is at the highest level in nearly 10 years as supply is at a 12 year low. The latest figures from the National Association of Estate Agents shows that in September its members reported an average of 405 house hunters per branch, the highest since October 2004 with each agent averaging 511 buyers. The September Housing Market report also reveals that 82% of homes sold for less than the original asking price, suggesting that sellers still need to be flexible when it comes to pricing. While supply of housing increased slightly from last month, from 49 houses available in August to 51 in September, this figure is seasonally low for September. The last time that supply levels were lower for September was in 2002, when 43 houses were available per NAEA member branch. The NAEA says that it is promising to see that first time buyers now account for 30% of all sales estate agents reported for the month of September, compared to 28% in August and 20% in July. ‘The report demonstrates to us that people are ready to get on or move up the housing ladder, but the supply levels do not match demand,’ said Mark Hayward, NAEA managing director. ‘September is a notoriously busy month in the housing market. The kids have gone back to school after the summer and people want to get sorted before Christmas, however it seems a lack of affordable and quality housing has been a problem this month. Now that the economy is picking up and Brits are in more comfortable financial situations, more people will want to buy and sell homes, but may be restricted,’ he explained. Despite high volumes of house hunters, the majority of houses are being sold for under the sellers’ original asking price. Only 4% of properties sold in September were sold for more than the original asking price, and a stark 82% were sold for less than asking price, some 16% more than in July, when this was last reported on. The report also shows that 70% of estate agents agreed that the impending interest rate rise set for 2015 is already effecting demand in the housing market, this is up by a quarter from September when only 39% thought that the rise was already effecting demand. ‘There’s still a visible gap in the number of house hunters, and the number of properties available and the impending base rate rise is likely to have an effect on this, with almost three quarters of agents reporting evidence of the rise affecting demand already,’ said Hayward. ‘All of our research does emphasise the need for the government to take action and ensure measures are in place for more homes to be built in order for supply to eventually meet the growing demand,’ he added. Continue reading
