Tag Archives: crisis
Farmland values in England expected to be steady in 2015
Farmland values in England increased by 2.5% over the last six months of 2014 and are expected to rise by 3% in 2015, a new report shows. But there is considerable regional price variations. Farmland in the South and East of England achieved values of around £14,000 per care whilst in the South West it was £9,000 per acre, according to the data from Carter Jonas. Location, type and quality remained key factors in achieving prime values together with the strength of the local market, the firm points out. The report also shows that the supply of land remained increasingly restricted, with a total of almost 120,000 acres being openly marketed across the UK in 2014, a 15% decrease from its previous year's level. As a result of the tightening supply of openly marketed land, the volume of off market sales increased significantly during 2014, accounting for a third of all Carter Jonas transactions in 2014 as clients increasingly considered seeking out private deals in order to gain exposure within the sector. This trend is expected to continue and will help to sustain the continued capital value growth forecast during 2015. Overall, demand became increasingly localised across the farmland market during 2014, with lot sizes over 1,000 acres proving most attractive. The diversity of demand is shown by the fact that farmers accounted for the highest proportion of transactions completed by Carter Jonas during 2014 at 28%, closely followed by lifestyle at 24% and investors at 20%. ‘The halo effect surrounding London remained significant and is expected to build momentum during 2015 as the Capital continues to thrive in performance and remuneration levels are set to outpace inflation. The halo effect is particularly prevalent in the country house market with a maximum of 50 acres, although holdings with larger parcels of land continue to benefit, albeit to a lesser extent,’ said Andrew Fallows, partner in Carter Jonas' national farms and estates team. ‘The inevitability of increasing interest rates, currently predicted to occur in the second half of 2015, is also expected to impact the general tone of the land market and our forecasts predict that average land values will increase 3% during 2015,’ he added. Continue reading
Prime central London transactions slowing but prices remain stable
The introduction of a new stamp duty propertytax structure in December, the forthcoming general election and the spectre of a mansion tax have created a level of uncertainty within the UK’s prime property market, it is claimed. New research from prime central London agency W.A.Ellis, a JLL company, shows a sharp reduction in prime central London transaction levels. The firm compared sales transactions within Knightsbridge, Chelsea, Belgravia and Kensington post code areas and found that transactions in January 2015 fell by 34% compared to a year ago. This reduction is most sharply felt within the house sector, with only nine sales occurring in January 2015, contrasting with 25 in January 2014, a reduction of 64% and the firm has seen a large number of houses being withdrawn from the market as discretionary sellers adopt a ‘wait and see’ more cautionary approach until after the election. The research also shows that while the transaction levels have dropped year on year, the average rate per foot of all the houses sold across the postcodes has remained stable at around £1,800 per foot. ‘Comparing year on year transactions within the same month only provides a snapshot, but the overriding sentiment at the upper end of the market is undoubtedly one of caution until the political path becomes clearer,’ said Richard Barber, director at W.A.Ellis. ‘At the lower end, however, we predict an increase in activity from the over 55s, releasing deposit monies from pensions to fund either buy to lets or investments for their children and we expect this to have a strong upward effect on the market between £200,000 and £1 million,’ he explained. He also explained that whilst the Mortgage Market Review (MMR) has had a curbing effect on the amounts that first time buyers can borrow, the so called bank of Mum and Dad is likely to subsidise the shortfall in mortgage funds, particularly as the market in equities and gilts is looking unpredictable. The firm’s research also shows that the prime central London lettings market saw a flourish of activity in the first week of January, followed by a steady stream of enquiries, viewings, and subsequent new tenancies. The firm forecasts that central London rents will rise 3% over the course of 2015. ‘January saw activity across the entire breadth of the market, with well-presented one and two bedroom properties letting with relative ease. Substantial houses gained much deserved attention, too, from families who have, no doubt, been hibernating over the Christmas period,’ said Lucy Morton, director and head of agency. She pointed out that demand for new build property, particularly in W2's prized Merchant Square development, is most definitely on the up, and the firm is seeing tenants’ expectations on quality of finish and furnishing increase considerably. ‘Stock levels remain high as many would be vendors with pre-election nerves opt to list their properties on the rental… Continue reading
US and Chinese set to dominate London commercial property market in 2015
Chinese and US money is set to dominate London’s commercial property market in 2015 after Chinese investors accounted for more inward investment in 2014 than all European buyers collectively. Of the £21 billion spent in the London market, some £14.6 billion or 70% was attributed to foreign buyers. US investors spent £3.4 billion, Chinese £2.2 billion and Qatari investors £1.2 billion, according to a new analysis from international real estate advisor Savills. China Life was one of the biggest new entrants of the year with its deal at 10 Upper Bank Street. Chinese investors were the biggest buyer group from Asia, with developers such as Shanghai Greenland, Ping An Trust and China Overseas Land Investment purchasing properties. The Savills report also shows that these investors are not limited to single transactions, and anticipate more activity. US investors including Blackstone, Kennedy Wilson and Hines have secured some of the larger deals such as Alban Gate, 111 Buckingham Palace Road and 25 Cabot Square, with Northstar entering the UK for the first time purchasing a property in Woking before going on to purchase a 1.1 billion euro portfolio which included four assets in London. Other new entrants, who Savills is acting for, include parties from Taiwan, Turkey, Singapore, Israel and Yemen. ‘Debt is a significant factor in drawing in these international parties, falling swap rates and competition between lenders is making borrowing cheaper,’ said Rasheed Hassan, director of cross border investment at Savills. ‘Aside from that there is genuine confidence in the strength of the occupational market with rents steadily rising. These pull factors are further boosted by push factors such as the returns in the bond markets as compared to property and some economic instability across other geographies,’ he added. According to Eric Zhao, Savills Chinese Capital Markets Specialist, Chinese investors coming into the UK market are mainly developers and insurance companies. ‘The top Chinese developers are being driven by challenges in the domestic market and global branding needs,’ he said. ‘Insurance companies are beginning to diversify their huge capital outside of China after the restriction on overseas investment was lifted by the regulator. We have already seen the top Chinese firms make a statement in London and we are expecting more to follow,’ he added. The report reveals a rise in private investors entering the London markets and points out that appetite from these parties has not been restricted to smaller lot sizes, with the Savills sale of The Gherkin to the Safra family, as the most significant larger private investor transaction as well as others from China, Spain and Hong Kong. ‘Whilst further in-flight of capital will keep turnover levels high, very few of the international institutional type investors have demonstrated a willingness to go to the initial yield levels that have been seen on the UK prime assets,’ said Stephen Down, Savills head of Central London . ‘Whether they will go to these levels depends on further rental growth coming through… Continue reading
