Tag Archives: crisis
Three tier recovery in UK commercial property markets, led by offices
The UK commercial property market is experiencing a three tier recovery with offices and retail living in different worlds, according to the latest analysis report. All property capital growth increased by 0.8% in May month on month, up from the 0.5% reported for April, says the Knight Frank June market outlook report. Offices saw the highest capital growth at 1.5%, and retail the lowest at 0.2% while the 12 month total return fell again to 17.6% and investment volume from January to May was £23.6 billion, up from £17.8 billion for the same period of 2014. ‘The winter and early spring were a time of deceleration for commercial property, following the heady capital growth seen in 2014. While in May IPD’s capital growth index gained momentum, the improvement was not evenly spread across the sectors,’ said James Roberts, Knight Frank chief economist. The report analysis points out that offices surged ahead, industrial achieved a less dramatic increase, and retail barely saw any improvement. Roberts explains the disparity is probably due to the fact that in recent years industrial has enjoyed a fillip in the occupier and investment market from the rise of e-commerce but that is not ‘news’ any more. ‘Possibly investors now view the internet effect as priced in, taking some of the heat out of the market. This is perhaps a healthy downwards gear change, especially as the internet is no longer expanding its market share in retail as aggressively as a few years ago,’ he explained. He also pointed out that in 2000 the office market became overheated in London and the South East, as property investors and developers overestimated the growth prospects of tech firms. ‘Hopefully what we are seeing is a soft landing for industrial following its e-commerce boom of recent years,’ he added. But he also said that explaining retail property’s under performance is, however, getting harder. ‘After all, the UK retail sales figures have been robust for some time, and the consumer has done much to support GDP growth by compensating for sluggish export demand and a retrenching government. Plus, there are the new occupier groups and shopping formats that have emerged to meet changing consumer trends, such as cafés, mini supermarkets, and click and collect. These should be compensating for problems elsewhere in the sector. Perhaps the explanation is to be found in leasing market fundamentals,’ he explained. So far this year the UK shop vacancy rate has hovered around the 13% mark according to Local Data Company. This is in marked contrast to the steady decline in vacancy rates in many UK office markets, particularly in London and the South East where levels are in most cases lower than in 2007. ‘These dynamics are shaping rental growth, which is reasserting itself significantly in the office market, and barely in existence for retail. Admittedly, the rental growth for London and the South East is the driving force behind the IPD office figures, but there are… Continue reading
House prices drop in Scotland due to new property tax bands
House prices in Scotland fell 1.6% in April, the largest monthly fall since 2009, but sales were up 18% month on month and are 4% higher than a year ago. It means that prices fell £3,000 in April taking the average house price to £184,970 but prices are still 14.6% higher than in the same month in 2014, according to the latest Your Move/Acadata monthly index. The index report points out that much of the change could be due to the introduction of the new Land and Buildings Transaction Tax (LBTT) in April which saw a lot of sales in the higher price brackets pushed through to avoid paying a higher level of property tax. Indeed, buyers rushed through 83 sales in the £1 million plus sector in March, compared to an average of 12 in a typical month, to beat higher tax. Some 46 were sold in just three days, but no million pound homes were sold in April. The most significant monthly downturn was found in East Lothian, where values dropped 7.2%. The islands of Orkney, Eilean Siar and the Shetlands saw the highest price increases during the month, of 9.1%, 4.8% and 4.4% respectively. Property values also reached a new peak in the Scottish Borders, Highland, and West Dunbartonshire in April. While year on year the biggest increase in prices has been in Edinburgh with growth of 25.5%. ‘Reforming Scottish stamp duty was always going to ruffle a few feathers in the market. After a spectacular 9.4% leap during March ahead of the LBTT, average Scottish house prices subsequently fell by the sharpest fall we’ve seen since March 2009, when the housing market was at the lowest ebb of the housing crisis,’ said Christine Campbell, Your Move managing director in Scotland. ‘The Scottish housing market put on a high-octane performance in March, as high end buyers raced against the clock to snap up million-pound property before the higher rates of stamp duty came into play. This magnified the average price paid in March, but now the market is re-focusing,’ she explained. She pointed out that the drop in prices has cooled annual growth, which slipped from 16.3% in March to 14.6% in April. ‘However, with double digit growth still pervading, the housing recovery doesn’t appear too shaken, and this short-term hiccup has been concentrated in higher priced areas,’ added Campbell. The data shows that there were 8,203 home sales during April, and overall, Scottish sales in both March and April have grown on 2014 levels, bucking the trend across England and Wales, where sales have been consistently falling behind on a yearly basis over the past six months. The figures also show how the change in stamp duty in Scotland has clearly accelerated purchasing decisions to the beginning of the year. For instance, there were 237 more homes sold in Edinburgh during the first quarter of 2015 than the first quarter of last year, of which 130 were larger, detached properties…. Continue reading
UK home lending weaker than a year ago, latest data shows
Lending for homes in the UK in April was weaker compared to a year ago but remained steady month on month, according to the latest data from the Council of Mortgage Lenders. verall gross lending in April was £15.8 billion, down from £16.1 billion in March and £16.8 billion in April last year. First time buyers saw a decline in lending compared to March and April last year although loan sizes for this sector have increased since a year ago. The CML says that competitive mortgage rates mean first time buyers are paying less to service their mortgage than any time since it began tracking this in 2005. Home mover lending volumes went up slightly month on month but there was a decline compared to April last year. The average home mover loan size decreased in April compared to March, but increased compared to the same period last year. Home owner remortgage activity also declined compared to last year and on a month to month basis. It has remained relatively subdued since around 2009. Lending for buy to let in April saw a decline compared to March, but there was substantial growth compared to levels in April last year. The CML says this was largely due to the increased levels of remortgage activity in the buy to let sector seen since the beginning of the year. The composition of lending for buy to let is different compared to that of home owner lending. While over the past year about 30% of lending to home owners was for remortgage, in the buy to let market 52% of lending was for remortgage. ‘House purchase lending in April was relatively subdued compared to last year, but similar to activity in March,’ said Paul Smee, director general of the CML, ‘The economy is recovering, with employment up, earnings growing, and competitive mortgage rates, so we expect activity to continue building as the year progresses. Buy to let is showing stronger growth than home-owner lending, buoyed significantly by remortgaging, which continues to remain more subdued in the home owner market,’ he added. Continue reading
