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Sales fall in key UK cities and prices start to plateau
Sales in 20 key cities across the UK fell by 2% in the last 12 months but prices have continued to rise, up 10.2% from a year ago, the latest price index shows. London has seen a 7% fall in transactions while Cambridge has seen sales fall by 20%, according to the UK cities house price index from Hometrack. Overall city level house price inflation has increased from 8.6% a year ago largely due to constricted supply. The average UK city house price currently stands at £231,700 ranging from £109,000 in Glasgow to £455,000 across London. However, there are signs that the annual rate of growth in high growth cities in southern England is starting to plateau as the level of housing sales slows and affordability pressures on would-be buyers increase. The report suggest that uncertainty around the forthcoming European Union referendum is likely to slow activity further. Questions remain as to the level to which the campaign will influence households’ decision making and overall levels of housing market activity. The Brexit referendum comes at a time when other policy measures such as higher stamp duty for investors and second home owners are expected to impact market activity from investors who accounted for one in five sales in 2015. ‘Slower growth in sales volumes has been a trend seen over the last three years across the high value, high growth cities such as Cambridge, Oxford, Aberdeen and London where house prices have been rising for six consecutive years,’ said Richard Donnell, Insight Director at Hometrack. ‘High housing and moving costs are limiting access to the market for a growing number of households which, in our view, will result in lower turnover and slower house price growth,’ he added. He believes that the EU referendum adds further complexity to an already complex outlook. ‘Our analysis shows that the Scottish referendum, and the 18 month campaign that preceded it, resulted in 10% fewer transactions and slower house price growth over the period relative to England,’ said Donnell. ‘The shorter run up to the EU vote will help but the true impact will depend on how quickly the campaigning focuses on the economic ramifications for UK households and the knock on effect for housing related decisions as Scotland proved. A vote to remain in the EU should see a return to business as usual whereas a vote to leave will create additional uncertainty,’ he explained. ‘After a three year upturn in housing market activity and house prices the outlook for the market appears increasingly tied up with policy impacts and the potential outcome of the referendum rather than the operation of market forces. Businesses operating in housing face risk and uncertainty which will have to be managed and monitored carefully,’ he added. Continue reading
Property prices in England and Wales up over 7% year on year
Residential property prices in England and Wales increased by 2.5% in January and are not 7.1% higher than a year ago, the latest index shows. This takes the average house price in England and Wales to £191,812 but the average price in London is much higher at £530,409, according to the data from the Land Registry. The house price index also shows that the number of property transactions has decreased over the last year. From August 2014 to November 2014 there was an average of 81,656 sales per month. In the same months a year later the figure was 78,652. The January data for London shows a monthly increase of 2.8% and year on year growth of 13.9% the North East saw the smallest annual price increase of 0.2% while Wales recorded the greatest monthly price rise of 3.7% and the North East also saw the most significant monthly price decrease with a fall of 1.6%. Within London the borough with the highest annual price rise was Hillingdon with a ise of 15.5% and Hillingdon also experienced the highest monthly price increase at 2.4%. Camden saw the smallest annual increase of 3% and Camden and Islington both recorded the only monthly fall, each seeing prices down by 0.4%. The number of properties sold in England and Wales for over £1 million in November 2015 increased by 14% to 1,091 from 953 in November 2014. The number of properties sold in London for over £1 million in November 2015 increased by 9% to 657 from 601 in November 2014. In the months August 2015 to November 2015, repossession volumes averaged 409 per month. This is a fall compared to the same period a year earlier, when volumes averaged 801 per month and the report says that repossession volumes appear to be exhibiting a downward trend. The region with the greatest fall in repossession sales was the South West with a decrease of 78% from November 2014. All regions experienced a decrease in the number of repossession sales in November when compared with the same period a year earlier. Continue reading
UK would be less attractive to property investor if it left the EU, new poll suggests
Property investors have warned that the UK would be a less attractive place to invest were it to leave the European Union, according to findings of a new survey. The survey of investor clients by global property advisor CBRE reveals that sentiment has hardened against leaving the EU in the three years that the poll has been taken. This year’s results show a reduction in those who think exiting the EU would make no difference to investment from 33% in 2014 to 21%. The proportion of respondents who think the UK would be a slightly worse place to invest has risen from 32% in 2014 to 46% in the latest poll, bringing the total that think the UK would be a worse place to invest to 73%, up from 69% last year. The UK will hold a referendum on whether to remain in the EU on 23 June and CBRE believes investors and occupiers are likely to behave during the referendum campaign in the same way as they did in Scotland during its 2014 independence referendum by delaying decisions until after the vote. However, after Scotland voted to stay in the UK there was a ‘catch up’ effect and CBRE expects the same for the UK, assuming that it decides to remain in the EU. ‘Property investors have, over the past three years, become increasingly gloomy about the impact of the UK leaving the EU. The UK has experienced record property investment in the last few years and the property investors we surveyed fear that a Brexit would adversely affect the attractiveness of the UK as an inward investment destination,’ said Miles Gibson, head of UK research at CBRE. ‘David Cameron’s reforms are likely to be useful, but not decisive, in affecting public sentiment. The most important concession that the Prime Minister has secured is to ensure that non-Eurozone countries are not discriminated against within the EU’s single market. This aims to ensure that key parts of the UK economy, particularly financial services, can continue to operate from the UK rather than having to move to the Eurozone,’ he added. The report shows that the majority of experts feel that the UK would suffer economically from exit, but estimates of the impact on growth vary substantially. The majority view is that the UK property market would suffer an adverse ‘demand shock’ were it to vote to leave the EU. Finally, the report argues that reductions in labour availability arising from migration controls will vary substantially because some sectors are more dependent on migrant labour than other. The food and hospitality sectors, for example, could be very exposed to labour market restrictions. The financial services sector is also exposed because of the potential change in the regulatory environment, and in terms of trade with the EU. Continue reading
