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Property sales in UK set to slowdown when buy to let surge ends
The UK housing market is set to slow down over the next three months following a short term rush on buy to let properties, says the latest report from the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors. The monthly survey report from RICS also shows that house price inflation peaked last December ahead of an anticipated rush to beat buy to let tax rises which come into force on 01 April. Once the 3% surcharge on additional homes, which include buy to let and second homes, is in place, RICS predicts that there will be more modest growth in property sales. While 74% of survey respondents expected there to be a rush on buy to let purchases ahead of Stamp Duty increases only 17% (net balance) expected to see an increase in sales over the coming three months. In addition, while house price inflation expectations peaked following the Chancellor’s Autumn Statement, with prices driven by speculation regarding an increase in investor demand, RICS says that this trend is set to soften from March as investor interest dampens. Only 21% of respondents expect prices to increase over the coming months. The survey showed that house prices continued to creep up throughout February. Across the UK, East Anglia continues to show the sharpest price increases, with 91% of respondents reporting that prices had risen over the past month. London and the North East by way of contrast saw very modest gains while the South West has seen the highest rise in sales across the UK for the last three months and 49% of respondents experienced a rise in sales rather than a fall and further increases are expected over the year ahead. New instructions to sell also increased more sharply in the South West than anywhere else in the UK as 34% of surveyors saw an increase in new listings rather than a decrease. New buyer enquiries in the South West rose for the twelfth month in succession with 49% more respondents seeing an increase in demand rather than a fall, the highest in the UK. However, uncertainty weighs on London’s housing market. Price expectations have turned negative in prime central parts of the capital and after sharp periods of inflation, London house prices look set to stabilize. Overall outer London boroughs remain firmly positive and Zone one properties are showing signs of a downturn. ‘Anecdotal evidence has suggested that a combination of exogenous factors is contributing to the overall picture in prime London, with tax changes, foreign market slowdowns and uncertainty over Brexit all being mooted as potential reasons behind the changes in demand,’ said Simon Rubinsohn, RICS chief economist. ‘This is not necessarily indicative of the long term market and the depreciation of the pound could encourage overseas investors back in to the market as could the outcome of the European referendum,’ he explained. He pointed out that the challenges facing the top end of London’s property market are clearly visible in the latest results. ‘However, it is… Continue reading
Negative equity rate falls to 13.1% in the US in fourth quarter of 2015
Fewer home owners in the United States were underwater as the negative equity rate fell to 13.1% in the fourth quarter of 2015, according to the latest data to be published. But more than 820,000 underwater home owners still owe over twice as much on their mortgages as their homes are worth, a reminder that some owners may not see positive equity in their homes in the foreseeable future. The data from the Zillow Negative Equity Report also shows that six million home owners were still in negative equity, which means they owe the bank more than their homes are worth. A year ago eight million home owners were upside down on their mortgages. The report explains that over time, negative equity can act as an anchor on a housing market, preventing underwater homeowners from listing their homes and re-entering the market. It is more prevalent in less expensive areas that are affordable to first time buyers. Without these homes available, many potential buyers are side lined and unable to take advantage of mortgage rates that remain near historic lows. It also points out that in the past year, millions of underwater home owners resurfaced as the total amount of negative equity declined by $75 billion, but some owners are so far underwater that positive equity may be several years away, leaving them stuck in their homes unable to sell. ‘Even though the number of underwater homeowners has fallen significantly since the peak of the housing crisis, negative equity persists in many markets as it fell at its slowest pace in a year,’ said Zillow chief economist Svenja Gudell. ‘Things are moving in the right direction, but some owners are still deeply underwater. As we move into the home shopping season, inventory is already low, and negative equity is keeping potential additional stock from becoming available,’ she added. Las Vegas still had the highest rate of negative equity at 20.9% followed closely by Chicago, where 20.5% of home owners were upside down on their mortgages. At the other end of the spectrum, in San Jose only 2.8% of mortgaged home owners were underwater. Continue reading
Latest data reveals success of UK govt’s flagship Help to Buy schemes
Over 150,000 people have achieved their aspiration of home ownership In the UK since the government’s flagship Help to Buy housing schemes were launched two years ago, the latest data shows. Some 80% were first time buyers, the average house price was £188,380 significantly below the national average, over half were for new build homes and 95% of Help to Buy completions took place outside of London. The figures confirm that it is first time buyers, for whom the scheme was designed, have indeed benefitted the most with 118,000 households having bought their first home via the scheme. First time buyers will have a further boost from the Help to Buy: Isa launched in December 2015. The scheme has already helped a quarter of a million first time buyers save for their first home by providing a bonus of up to £3,000. With almost all completions outside London, the highest number of homes through the mortgage guarantee scheme have been in the North West region and the equity loan scheme for new build properties is particularly prevalent in the South East region. First time buyers and second steppers will also have a further boost from the London Help to Buy scheme launched in February 2016. The scheme supports purchases of new build homes in the capital by offering a 5% deposit backed by an equity loan of up to 40% from the government. Figures for the mortgage guarantee scheme also show completions have been least concentrated in regions where house price growth is highest. In London the scheme makes up just 1% of all mortgage lending compared to an average of 3% across the country. Over half of the homes bought through Help to Buy are new-build properties, helping to contribute to the 14% rise in private house building since the launch of Help to Buy. This has supported new housing construction output with total new housing construction activity in 2015 the highest on record. Annual housing starts are now at an eight year high with over 700,000 new homes built since 2010. ‘The government is committed to helping people achieve the aspiration of buying their own home, and all our Help to Buy schemes have now helped almost half a million people,’ said Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne. However, he pointed out that while the stronger financial system means the Government expects banks to start to exit the Help to Buy Mortgage Guarantee scheme, the other Help to Buy schemes go from strength to strength. ‘Increased confidence coupled with our clear ambition to deliver one million new homes is leading to more house building with the numbers of new homes at a seven year high. Government backed schemes are helping an increasing number of people to realise that home ownership is realistic for them,’ said Communities Secretary Greg Clark. Housing Minister Brandon Lewis acknowledged that there is more work to be done to get the homes built people want but described the figures as… Continue reading
