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Continued UK house price growth underpinning positive sentiment
Households across the UK believed that the value of their home rose in March with the imbalance between demand and supply underpinning house prices growth. Some 25.1% of the 1,500 households surveyed for the latest House Price Sentiment Index (HPSI) from Knight Frank and Markit Economics, across the UK said that the value of their home had risen over the last month, while 4% said that prices had fallen. This resulted in a HPSI reading of 60.5. This is the thirty-sixth consecutive month that the reading has been above 50. Households in every region perceived that the value of their home rose in March, however there were significant regional variations, reflecting wider trends in pricing across the UK market. Londoners perceived the biggest increase at 71.7, followed by those in the South East at 67.4 and East of England at 66.3. In Scotland and the North West the perceived rate of growth was slower at 53.3 and 54 respectively. The future HPSI, which measures what households think will happen to the value of their property over the next year, rose in March to 71.6, from 69.8 in February. March’s reading was the highest recorded by the index since August 2014. The rise in future sentiment was driven by households in southern England, with those in the South East at 81, the East of England at 80.3 and London at 78.9 were notably more confident than those in the North East at 61.4 and Scotland also at 61.4. ‘The fundamentals for the UK housing market remain steady, especially around mortgage costs which remain at record lows. The imbalance between demand and supply of housing is also underpinning house prices. The delivery of new homes remains some 30 to 40% below the levels needed to start to address the annual shortfall of housing in the UK,’ said Gráinne Gilmore, head of UK residential research at Knight Frank. ‘There have already been several large targeted government policies to try and boost development and ease the path of first time buyers and it is notable the future sentiment reading for 25 to 34 year olds is the highest it has been for 15 months,’ she pointed out. ‘As reflected in the index, the sound fundamentals of the market will combine to support overall prices in the coming year, but as the index also reveals, the market will continue to be multispeed across regions and price bands,’ she added. Tim Moore, senior economist at Markit, explained that the latest survey is a clear signal that UK house prices have stayed on an upward trajectory throughout the first quarter of 2016. ‘One of the factors supporting price sentiment seems to be the expectation that interest rates will remain ultra-low for longer, and this belief has become more widespread so far this year. Households’ current price sentiment is stronger now than at any time over the past 17 months, but the economic landscape is not lacking in potential headwinds for buyer confidence,’… Continue reading
More details of UK buy to let extra stamp duty charge revealed
Details of how the new stamp duty surcharge on additional homes in the UK have now been provided by the Treasury following Chancellor George Osbourne’s Budget speech. From 01 April anyone buying an additional property, whether as a second home or a buy to let investment will pay an extra 3% in stamp duty. Sales completes before midnight on 31 March 2016 will not be liable for the extra charge and transactions where contracts were exchanged before 25 November 2015 will not be liable, even if completion takes part on or after 01 April. It means stamp duty for an additional home worth up to £125,000 will be charged at 3% whereas before it was zero. Properties sold at £125,000 to £250,000 will be subject to 5% charge, up from 2%. Those prices £250,000 to £925,000 8%, previously 5%, from £925,000 to £1.5 million a rise to 13% and those over that a 15% charge. The time limit for those who own two properties temporarily because they could not sell their main residence before buying another main residence has been extended from 18 to 36 months This means those who buy a new main residence without have sold their previous one will pay the additional stamp duty, but if they sell their previous residence within 36 months, they can claim a refund. Owners of multiple properties will also have 36 months to replace their main residence without incurring the extra 3% charge. The 36 month period will begin from 25 November 2015 for purchasers who disposed of their previous main residence prior to the Autumn Statement where the extra charge was announced. Couples who are separated will be treated as ‘separate entities’ in terms of property ownership. ‘The government will not treat married couples as one unit if they are separated in circumstances that are likely to be permanent,’ the Treasury document says. As announced by Osbourne on Wednesday large scale buy to let investors will be liable for the additional charge. This is despite the Chancellor initially saying that those buying more than 15 properties would be exempt. Buyers will declare their status as existing property owners or not when filling in the Stamp Duty paperwork on the purchase of a property. The Chancellor expects the additional 3% duty to raise £3.7 billion for the Treasury over the next five years. Continue reading
Mortgage lending in UK fell in February month on month, no big change expected
Gross mortgage lending reached £17.6 billion in February, some 5% lower than January but 30% higher than February last year, according to the latest estimates from the Council of Mortgage Lenders. It is, however, the highest lending total for a February since 2008 when gross lending reached £24.1 billion. ‘Lending continues the year on a positive note, with our monthly estimate showing an increase of 30% in February compared to a year ago. This growth rate is in line with what we saw in the closing months of 2015,’ said CML economist Mohammad Jamei. He explained that the recovery is being underpinned by market fundamentals in the UK, as wages grow and unemployment falls, helped by government schemes and competitive mortgage deals but the CML thinks it is unlikely that there will be any significant acceleration in lending. ‘While there may be a slight current boost to lending as some transactions seek to complete before the 01 April tax changes in the buy to let sector, this is likely to be followed by a slight fall in activity. Affordability pressures continue to weigh on activity, as does the low number of properties coming on the market, though this has been improving very recently,’ he added. Andy Knee, chief executive of LMS, believes that apart from a slight dip in activity expected following the April tax changes, all factors are working in the mortgage market’s favour. ‘Despite a delay in the base rate rise, the remortgage market in particular is likely to continue unabated, with home owners sitting on record housing equity and capitalising on the hugely competitive rates currently available,’ he pointed out. According to Peter Rollings, chief executive officer of Marsh & Parsons, once the April deadline passes it will quickly revert to business as usual, and a subsidence in buy to let borrowing will likely water down the growth in the mortgage market. ‘The Chancellor is certainly laying the long-term foundations for future mortgage lending levels, with the Lifetime ISA announcement just the latest guise to help first time buyers save up for a deposit and get onto the property ladder,’ he said. ‘But these savers are a long way down the pipeline, and in the immediate term, borrowing is more likely to feel the brunt of measures affecting the buy to let market. Property investors were completely overlooked in the Budget, and the Chancellor’s move to exclude landlords from the tax break on capital gains seems at odds with the need for greater supply of property on the market. Any measure that discourages and disincentives selling homes is not helpful in the current climate, and for buyers trying to keep track of house prices,’ he added. Continue reading
