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New analysis identifies rising commercial opportunities in smaller UK cities
Rising capital values and strong competition are now driving investors to look beyond the major UK cities for quality office stock and potential value, a new report shows. The analysis from global property consultancy JLL looks at the economic and office market performance of 37 smaller towns and cities giving an insight in to which locations will offer the biggest opportunity over the next five years. The report shows some smaller cities are found to have a stronger outlook than the major cities such as London, Manchester and Birmingham. It explains that the success of these smaller cities will be closely associated with their ability to develop and grow clusters of businesses, along with strong university links and the provision of integrated transport and infrastructure. Growth leaders, including Brighton, Solihull and Reading have seen capital value increases of over 25% since the end of 2012 and are expected to see a stronger than average economic performance over the next five years. With the outlook remaining solid for these cities, most of which have firmly established business clusters, JLL says it may be prudent for investors to focus on opportunities where they can reposition their assets to benefit from any price growth. The report also reveals locations such as Oxford, Warrington, Southampton and Nottingham, with a similarly strong economic outlook but where recent capital value growth has not been as strong as the growth leaders and opportunities may actually be greater going forward. These potential performers include a broad range of property markets that JLL anticipates could benefit from further capital growth as the property market continues to respond to the improving economic climate. ‘The outlook for the UK’s smaller cities is now more optimistic than it has been for some time. Our research shows potential performers, including the likes of Oxford and Warrington, should benefit from further capital growth over the coming years as the property market continues to improve,’ said Chris Ireland, chairman and lead director for UK Capital Markets at JLL. ‘Indeed, the potential for growth in some of the smaller cities may be greater than in the big six regional centres which have already seen substantial uplift,’ he added. ‘From an occupational perspective, we think there will be a gradual shift towards office rental growth in a number of these centres which should ensure continuing investor and developer interest,’ explained Ireland. According to Ben Burston, head of UK offices research at JLL, strong business clusters are a key determinant of future growth prospects. ‘For instance, Oxford’s strong life science cluster is contributing to a robust employment growth outlook, while Warrington is benefitting from a strong nuclear research and technology cluster,’ he said. ‘The devolution agenda provides an opportunity for more decision making to be taken at local level, which could help drive improvements to transport, infrastructure and public realm that will help attract people and businesses, and thereby drive future growth,’ he pointed out. Cities identified in the report as… Continue reading
Majority of US metro areas experiencing falling home ownership rates, new research shows
Rising home prices in many metro areas in the United States have helped home owners build housing wealth in recent years, according to new research from the National Association of Realtors. But the continued decline in home ownership means the gains are going to fewer people and likely leading to worsening inequality in the nation. The NAR reviewed data on home ownership rates, changes in single family median home prices and a measure of inequality between 2010 and 2013 to estimate wealth and income inequality in 100 of the largest metropolitan statistical areas across the US. The findings reveal that over 90% of metro areas have experienced declining home ownership rates at a time when home values have risen and incomes have remained flat. According to the study, wealth distribution is seen as most unequal in metro areas with the lowest homeownership rates, including high cost areas such as Los Angeles, New York and San Diego. According to Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, home prices have steadily recovered in most metro areas in the past five years, providing a boost of $5 trillion in housing wealth from the downturn’s cyclical low for home owners during this time. ‘Home ownership plays a pivotal role in the US economy and has historically been one of the primary sources of wealth accumulation for middle class families,’ he said. ‘Unfortunately, due to an underperforming labour market, insufficient housing supply and overly-stringent underwriting standards since the recession, home ownership has plunged to a rate not seen in over two decades. As a result, the country has become more unequal as the number of homeowners has fallen while the number of renters has significantly risen,’ he added. Yun explained that the inability for renter households to become home owners is leaving them behind financially. A typical homeowner’s net worth climbs because of upticks in home values and declining mortgage balances. On the other hand, renters have likely seen increased rental housing costs and are less likely to have been active investors in the stock market’s strong growth in recent years. NAR’s study examined intensifying or lessoning inequality by measuring the change in the number of owners and renters during the recent period of rising home values. The findings show that an overwhelming 93 out of 100 analysed markets experienced a declining home ownership rate from 2010 to 2013. Because renters typically have much lower net worth than home owners, a metro area’s low homeownership rate is associated with greater wealth inequality. As a result, Los Angeles, New York, Las Vegas, Fresno in California and San Diego were found to have the most unequal wealth distribution. ‘Changes in wealth during this period are especially profound in high cost metro areas that have seen robust price growth. For instance, a typical home owner in San Jose, California, enjoyed an increase of $210,671 in housing wealth while renters were left behind and likely exposed to annual rent increases,’ said… Continue reading
New analysis reveals severe home planning shortfall in England
The property planning shortfall in England could grow to 180,000 over the course of the next parliament unless local authorities work together, it is claimed. The planning system is not delivering housing where need and market demand is greatest, according to a new analysis from real estate firm Savills. Its shows that the number of homes planned by local authorities in England is likely to result in a shortfall of around 36,000 homes a year, unless local planning authorities take greater account of housing need both within and beyond their boundaries. ‘Failure to cooperate on housing requirements across local authority boundaries is likely to result in an accumulated planning shortfall of 180,000 homes over the next five years. This is before we consider what house builders and other developers can deliver relative to these targets,’ the report points out. Figures shows that last year building starts reached 136,000 in England. However, according to analysis undertaken on behalf of the Town and Country Planning Association (TCPA), at least 240,000 new homes a year in England are needed from now to 2031. The greatest requirement is in London and the South East where the property market has been strongest. However, the Savills analysis shows that these are the areas where the deficiency in the number of homes being planned is likely to be the greatest. Housing targets adopted so far are 80% of the corresponding Strategic Housing Market Assessment (SHMA) figures across the country. ‘A continuation of this trend would result in a shortfall of 26,000 homes a year in the south and east of England, including London. This figure equates to 74% of total housing shortfall for the whole of England,’ the report says. Of a total 114 local authorities in the south and east of England, 31 or 27% have neither an adopted local plan nor a recent SHMA published since the National Policy Planning Framework (NPPF) was introduced in 2012, the report points out. Yet these local authorities currently accommodate a quarter of all existing households in the region and will face pressure to meet the requirements for housing emerging from London and surrounding local authorities,’ it adds. The 31 local authorities without post-NPPF local plans include Sevenoaks, Elmbridge and Epping Forest. These are strong housing markets where over 50% of the authority is designated as green belt. Shortfalls are less pronounced in the North, Midlands and west of England. Assuming targets adopted by the local authorities that still lack a post-NPPF plan are 80% of their SHMA, the annual planning shortfall could amount to 7,349 homes in the Midlands and west of England and 2,038 in the North. Despite the increase in planning permissions towards 200,000 homes per year in England last year, 20,000 were granted through appeal. A closer analysis reveals persistent problems in maintaining an adequate supply of land for housing and that this problem is most notable where the level of housing need is greatest. Continue reading
