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Pending homes sales in US dipped in June, latest NAR data shows

After five consecutive months of increases, pending home sales in the United States slipped in June but remained near May's level, which was the highest in over nine years, the latest data shows. Modest gains in the Northeast and West were offset by larger declines in the Midwest and South, according to the pending home sales index (PHSI) from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The index, a forward looking indicator based on contract signings, fell 1.8% to 110.3 in June but is still 8.2% above June 2014 when it was 101.9. Despite last month's decline, the index is the third highest reading of 2015 and has now increased year on year for 10 consecutive months. Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said that although pending sales decreased in June, the overall trend in recent months supports a solid pace of home sales this summer. ‘Competition for existing houses on the market remained stiff last month, as low inventories in many markets reduced choices and pushed prices above some buyers' comfort level,’ he explained. ‘The demand is there for more sales, but the determining factor will be whether or not some of these buyers decide to hold off even longer until supply improves and price growth slows,’ he added. According to Yun, existing home sales are up considerably compared to a year ago despite the share of first time buyers only modestly improving and he said the reason is that the boost in sales is mostly coming from pent-up sellers realizing their equity gains from recent years. ‘Strong price appreciation and an improving economy is finally giving some homeowners the incentive and financial capability to sell and trade up or down. Unfortunately, because nearly all of these sellers are likely buying another home, there isn't a net increase in inventory,’ Yun pointed out. ‘A combination of homebuilders ramping up construction and even more home owners listing their properties on the market is needed to tame price growth and give all buyers more options,’ he added. The PHSI in the Northeast increased by 0.4% to 94.3 in June, and is now 12% above a year ago. In the Midwest the index fell by 3% to 108.1 in June, but is still 5% above June 2014. Pending home sales in the South also decreased 3% to an index of 123.5 in June but are still 7.8% above last June. The index in the West increased 0.5% in June to 104.4, and is now 10.4% above a year ago. The national median existing home price for all housing types in 2015 is expected to increase around 6.5% to $221,900, which would match the record high set in 2006. Total existing home sales this year are forecast to increase 6.6% to around 5.27 million, about 25% below the prior peak set in 2005 which was 7.08 million. Continue reading

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Construction up across the UK, led by homes and office developments

Construction workloads rose across all sectors and in each part of the UK in the second quarter of 2015 according to the latest market survey from the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS). Some 44% more surveyors reported higher activity levels, up from 37% on the previous quarter, driven by office development and private house building. The pace of growth in Northern Ireland was slowest and at a headline level, 74% more respondents expect to see their workloads rise and respondents forecast growth of 3.8%. Over half, 51% net balance, of respondents reported higher workloads in private housing and 58% in the private commercial sector, following a 22% rise in new orders in the first quarter of the year. Activity in London and the South East appears stronger than elsewhere in the UK, so profit margins and employment expectations are higher in these parts of the UK than anywhere else with 62% more respondents expecting to take on more people over the next 12 months and 58% expecting higher profits. Financial constraints and issues with planning and regulation remain the key restraints on growth in the sector with 58% more surveyors reporting difficulties in the second quarter. In addition, 40% of respondents reported shortages of materials, but this is an improvement on the 60% who were having such difficulties through most of 2014. ‘The upturn in workloads has led to a less competitive tendering environment, particularly across public sector projects, but a lack of accessible finance is now affecting a net balance of 58% of our members and while concern over labour shortages dipped slightly, the demand for cost and project management skills rose,’ said RICS director of the built environment, Alan Muse. ‘Also typical as workloads recover is the emergence of other impediments to growth, outside of labour and finance constraints, such as planning and regulatory barriers, which could be exacerbated if cuts are made to local authority planning departments as backlogs in planning applications will have a knock-on effect to work pipelines,’ he added. Meanwhile, the latest state of the trade survey from the Federation of Master Builders (FMB) says that in the second quarter of the year it is skills shortages that are undermining activity in the small to medium construction sector despite the fact that the building industry has been booming for more than two years. ‘There can be no doubt that the building industry is booming but the skills shortage continues to loom large over our industry. Almost half of construction SMEs are struggling to recruit adequate numbers of bricklayers, with others finding it increasingly hard to hire carpenters and joiners, site managers and supervisors,’ said Brian Berry, chief executive of the FMB. ‘Looking ahead, our members are reporting that their workloads are likely to rise over the coming three months which means the shortage of skilled workers will only become more acute. It also begs the question, how much stronger would the pace of growth in… Continue reading

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Average property prices in Scotland up 3.5% year on year

Average property prices in Scotland increased by 3.5% to £167,765 in the second quarter of this year compared to the previous year, according to the latest data from the Registers of Scotland. It means that the average price of a home is now at its highest for this quarter since Registers of Scotland began compiling quarterly statistics in 2003. The highest rise was 10.1% recorded in West Dunbartonshire, taking the average price to £120,822, while Edinburgh recorded the highest average at £237,286, a rise of 4.4% compared with the same quarter the previous year. The largest percentage fall in price was in East Renfrewshire, with a drop of 7% taking the average price to £216,565. Sales of property across Scotland increased by of 1.6% on the same quarter the previous year, the highest volume of sales for this quarter since 2008. Glasgow saw the biggest rise in the number of sales with an increase of 17.6% compared to the same period in the previous year. This increase brought Glasgow above Edinburgh in terms of volume with 3,035 residential house sales compared to 3,002 in Edinburgh. This is the first time that the volume of Glasgow sales have exceeded those in Edinburgh since quarter four of 2012. Aberdeenshire sae the biggest decrease in the number of sales with a fall of 18% as in Aberdeenshire, and the total value of sales across Scotland increased by 5.1% compared to the previous year to over £4.14 billion, the highest value of sales for this quarter since 2008. Edinburgh was the largest market with sales of over £712 million for the quarter, an increase of 6.4% on the previous year. West Dunbartonshire recorded the highest increase in value with sales of over £45 million, an increase of 27% compared with the same quarter last year. In terms of type, flats showed the biggest increase in average house price in this quarter, up 4.7% to £133,790. Semi-detached properties also showed an increase of 1.8% on the previous year. Meanwhile detached and terraced properties saw decreases in average house prices of 0.2% and 0.3% respectively. Semi-detached properties and flats both showed an increase in sales volumes, with flats showing the biggest increase at 6.9%. Detached and terraced properties showed a decrease in sales volumes with terraced properties showing the biggest decrease of 3.7%. Property consultancy, CKD Galbraith, said that its own research shows a similar pattern and Simon Brown, partner and head of residential sales at CKD Galbraith, said it is an encouraging picture for the Scottish property market as a whole which has witnessed steady growth over the first half of 2015. ‘The market has improved somewhat post-referendum and we have witnessed a surge in viewings being conducted, the numbers of prospective buyers registering with us and the number of properties coming onto the market, all highlighting a real boost in market confidence both from sellers and buyers alike,’ he explained. ‘We believe this will continue as… Continue reading

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