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Better planning and more land needed to meet UK housing targets
House builders across the UK say policy makers should boost resources for local authority planning departments, increase skills and training for the construction sector and step up the delivery of public sector land to help increase the supply of new homes. The House Builder survey from international real estate firm Knight Frank, which contains the views of builders and developers across the country, also suggests that two thirds believe that the maximum number of new homes that can be delivered per year is 180,000 or less with only 9% thinking the government’s target of 200,000 is possible. The report points out that while activity in the house building sector has continued to pick up over the last year, the supply of new homes is still falling well short of demand. Boosting supply, where new housing is most keenly needed, is a key priority if the UK housing market is to avoid long term distortion. However, while nearly 60% of respondents expect housing completions to rise over the next year, with 18% saying the rise could be between 10% and 25%, around half expect no change in the delivery of affordable homes over the next 12 months. Just 9% of respondents said that under current market conditions it would be possible to deliver more than 200,000 homes a year, every year. More than 90% of respondents are expecting construction costs to rise again over the next 12 months and two thirds expect that development land prices will rise again this year. Indeed, the report found that rising labour and build costs are expected to pose the greatest risk to the sector in the coming year and some 56% of respondents said that the Community Infrastructure Levy (CIL) was weighing on development volumes The biggest policy change that would help boost development volumes would be recruiting more people to Local Authority planning departments, according to respondents. ‘The imbalance between the demand for new homes and the number of units being built is well-recognised, by the industry and political parties alike. In the 12 months to April 2014, some 141,000 homes were built in the UK, up by 4% on the previous year,’ said Grainne Gilmore, head of UK residential research at Knight Frank. ‘However, official household growth projections suggest an additional 230,000 potential households a year in the UK. Below these headline figures, there is a recognition that the right type of homes must be built in areas where there is the most housing need, typically adjacent to existing urban areas,’ she explained. ‘This has led to tensions about the greenbelt, with a lack of consensus on how to expand accommodation in some of the UK’s most thriving towns and cities. Nearly one half of the respondents to the housebuilder survey said that rules around developing on greenbelt land should be loosened,’ she added. The report points out that policy makers from all political parties are keen to encourage development on brownfield land and the… Continue reading
Average property prices in Canada set to rise by 2% in 2015, says latest forecast
The national average property price in Canada is forecast to increase by 2% to $442,400 in 2016, according to the latest forecast from the Canadian Real Estate Association. But there is likely to be regional variation. For example, increases are forecast to be slightly larger but less than 3% in British Columbia, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Ontario, New Brunswick, and Prince Edward Island, with gains in some provinces reflecting an expected rebound from levels in 2015. Price growth in 2016 is forecast to be strongest in Ontario with growth of 2.8% due to an ongoing supply shortage of listings for low rise homes in and around the Greater Toronto Area, the CREA forecast report says. ‘Alberta and Quebec are forecast to see average home price growth of about 1.7% and 0.8% respectively in 2016, while Nova Scotia and Newfoundland and Labrador are forecast to edge slightly lower. The report explains that the national average price has run higher than expected since CREA’s last forecast, in part reflecting a jump in the proportion of higher priced home sales this spring and early summer in B.C.’s Lower Mainland, in and around the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) and Calgary. This trend now appears to be receding, causing the national average price to follow suit. However, recent trends in the Home Price Index, which is not affected by changes in the mix of sales activity the way that average price is, suggest that prices are still accelerating across much of B.C., in and around the GTA and Montreal. B.C. continues to see some of the strongest economic growth in the country, coupled with strong demographics. Home sales there have been drawing down inventories and boosting prices across the province. In Alberta, home sales have gone from setting records in 2014 to running at or below their 10 year average, as uncertainty surrounding the outlook for oil prices and employment continues to side line potential home buyers. In Ontario, the ongoing shortage of single family homes for sale in and around the GTA continues to drive very strong price gains. Record levels of activity in the province would likely be higher were it not for a shortage of low rise homes coming onto the market. In Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Quebec, and most of Eastern Canada, supply remains elevated. Home prices outside of B.C. and Ontario are forecast to keep pace with or lag inflation, as elevated supplies are drawn down by sales and return to better balance. The forecast for national sales in 2015 has been revised slightly higher, reflecting stronger than anticipated activity in B.C. and Ontario. National sales are now projected to rise by 3.3% to 495,800 units in 2015, marking the second strongest year on record for home sales in Canada. Across the country, British Columbia is projected to post the largest annual increase in activity in 2015 with growth of 18.1. Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Nova Scotia are expected to post the largest annual sales declines 21.6%, 12% and 12.1%… Continue reading
UK reinvigorated Right to Buy programme hailed a success
A reinvigorated Right to Buy programme in the UK has created nearly 40,000 new home owners in the last three years, according to new figures published by the government. Housing Minister Brandon Lewis said it is further evidence of how government-led efforts to help aspiring home owners are working, adding that there were 3,644 new starts and acquisitions since the Right to Buy was reinvigorated in 2012. He explained that this means that the 3,054 additional homes sold in the first year of the scheme are already being replaced on a one for one basis nationally. ‘For years, the discounts available under the Right to Buy were left to dwindle, denying thousands of people the opportunity to own their own home,’ he explained. ‘This reinvigorated scheme has turned that around, and means nearly 40,000 people have been able to buy the home they love, many of whom might otherwise never have had the chance to become homeowners. On top of that, it’s getting homes built, with councils replacing the additional homes sold on a one for one basis,’ he added. The data also shows that since the reinvigoration of the Right to Buy scheme, nearly £964 million in sales receipts are being re-invested into building new homes, levering a further £2.2 billion of investment over the next three years. This means that in total, over £3.2 billion will be raised to invest in affordable house building as a result of Right to Buy. A breakdown of the figures shows that in the three months to June, some 2,779 households bought their homes under Right to Buy. Local authorities received approximately £223 million from Right to Buy sales, 5% higher than the £212 million in the same quarter of 2014 to 2015. Lewis also pointed out that since 2010 the government has introduced a range of measures to support aspiring homeowners to buy their own home. In addition to reinvigorating the Right to Buy, this includes the Help to Buy scheme, which has enabled nearly 120,000 people to buy with a fraction of the deposit they would normally require. Overall, since 2010 232,000 households have been helped to purchase a home through government backed schemes including Help to Buy and Right to Buy. On top of this, the government has also pledged to build 200,000 new Starter Homes, which will be available to young first time buyers under 40 at a 20% discount, while a new Help to Buy ISA will help aspiring home owners to save up a deposit for a new home. Continue reading
