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Recovery in property sales in Spain proving sustainable, latest data suggests
Homes sales in Spain are showing strong growth, up by 13.9% in the second quarter of this year following a rise of 4.4% in the first quarter, according to the latest data from the Ministry of Public Works. It is the six quarter in a row when sales have increased year on year, suggesting that the recovery in the Spanish real estate market is being sustained. It is also the second best quarter since 2010. However, the market still has some way to go to its pre-crisis level as sales are 58% lower than the peak of 2006. A breakdown of the figures shows that some 12.5% of sales were for new homes and sales increased in 14 regions, as well as in the autonomous cities of Ceuta and Melilla, and fell in three. The biggest increases were in La Rioja with growth of 44.2%, Ceuta and Melilla at 33.9%, the Balearic Islands at 30.1%, Cantabria at 29.4% and Murcia at 25.7%. Sales fell by 14.7% in Navarra, by 1.5% in Extremadura and by 0.6% in the Basque Country. Overseas buyers living in Spain accounted for 17.2% of sales while sales to non-resident foreigners amounted to 5%. Alicante had the highest number of foreign buyers at 4,141, Málaga 2,517, Barcelona 1,470, Madrid 1,173 and Tenerife 1,099. The sustained recovery is also confirmed in the latest figures from the General Council of Notaires, showing that the property market grew by 11% in July compared to the same month in 2014. The data shows that the Spanish property market has expanded in nine of the last 12 months with only January and February seeing sales fall. According to Mark Stucklin, of Spanish Property Insight one of the main factors behind rising home sales is easier, cheaper mortgage credit. There were 17,450 new mortgages signed in July, up 27% on the same month last year, taking the number of sales involving mortgage financing to 46%, highest level since the boom years in the middle of the previous decade. Prices area also starting to recover. The data from the official house price index published by the National Institute of Statistics shows that they rose by 4% over the 12 months to the second quarter of 2015. The Balearics saw the biggest rise in prices with growth of 7.3%, driven by a 7.8% rise in new build prices and a 7.4% rise in resale prices. Indeed, new and resale house prices have been rising since the second quarter of last year, and the trend appears to be picking up speed for both new and resale properties. But figures from the Notaries suggest that prices are not yet in recovery mode. The data from them shows prices down by 0.3% in the second quarter of the year. But Stucklin believes that there are reasons to be sceptical about the index. Compared to 2007, Spanish house prices are down 33%, according to the index with resale prices down 40% and new build… Continue reading
House prices growth flattens in Sydney, latest index shows
House price growth in Sydney has flattened and values in three other Australian capital cities fell in September, according to the latest residential index. Overall there was a 0.9% rise in capital city property prices over the month and a 4% rise in the September quarter, the CoreLogic RP Data home value index shows. However, across the capital cities, the month on month results ranged from a 2.4% rise in Melbourne to a 1.9% fall in Hobart while Sydney, posted a month on month gain of just 0.1% in September. During the September quarter, half of Australia’s capital cities posted a decline in dwelling values with Hobart down 2% over the three months. In Adelaide values slipped by 1.6%, in Perth they fell by 0.7% and Canberra values were down 0.4%. The most substantial capital gains over the quarter were achieved in Melbourne where dwelling values were up by 7.4% followed by Sydney at 4.6 %, Brisbane at 1.9% and Darwin up by 0.4%. Head of research Tim Lawless pointed out that the flat growth rate in Sydney comes after dwelling values increased by 16.7% over the past 12 months and they are 49.6% higher over the growth cycle to date. ‘The slower month on month reading across the Sydney market comes at a time when auction clearance rates have slipped to the low 70% range from week to week and the number of advertised properties has risen,’ said Lawless. ‘Vendors are still enjoying strong selling conditions, but it looks like buyers are slowly regaining some leverage in what has been a very hot market. Meanwhile, while half of Australia’s capital cities have seen values rise over the past quarter and year, the other half did not fare as well,’ he added. In Darwin, dwelling values fell by 3.9% over the 12 months to the end of September, while in Perth values were 0.9% lower over the year. Adelaide home values dropped by 0.3% and Hobart values are 0.2% lower. Weakening labour markets, slower population growth and less demand for housing is placing downwards pressure on prices to differing degrees across these markets, according to Lawless. Looking at which sector of the housing market is driving the highest capital gains, across the combined capital cities it has been the most expensive quartile of the market where growth has been the most substantial. Across the combined capitals, the top quartile of dwellings based on value has recorded growth of 12.3% over the past 12 months, while the most affordable end of the market has recorded a lower growth rate of 8.5%. ‘This trend holds true across Sydney and Melbourne, however in Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth it is actually the most affordable end of the housing market that has recorded the best results,’ Lawless said. CoreLogic's analysis of houses versus apartments reveals some substantial differences in market performances across the capital cities. At a capital city level over the quarter, the results don’t show a great deal of difference with… Continue reading
London and Paris still dominate wish list of European real estate investors
European real estate investors are increasingly looking beyond London and Europe’s gateway cities such as London and Paris as they seek to meet their return objectives, new research suggests. But not every regional city is suitable for investors and returns can disappoint in the medium term if one does not factor-in local market fundamentals such as local growth trends, demographic changes and human capital, it points out. According to the latest LaSalle Investment Management’s European Regional Growth Index (E-REGI), which ranks Europe’s top 100 cities, the region’s economy is driven by dynamic urban centres with London and Paris once again in first and second position in the ranking. The index report explains that the extraordinary resilience of such cities, combined with their deep investment markets, justifies targeting them for a wide range of investment strategies. Other cities increasingly coming to the fore include Manchester at 17 and Bristol at 25 which have both climbed three spots in the European ranking, while Birmingham at 37 is up two spots. ‘Having published this index for 16 years, we now have an unrivalled understanding of the different economic patterns in Europe’s leading cities,’ said Mahdi Mokrane, LaSalle Investment Management’s head of research and strategy for Europe. ‘The index not only determines which real estate markets are likely to out or underperform in the medium term, but combined with our on the ground expertise we also use the index as a strategic framework to match cities with the most relevant investment styles,’ he explained. In order to help investors navigate the complexity of the different strategies which best match different cities, LaSalle has categorised them into four distinct groups: consistent, affluent, mover and aspiring. Consistent is the largest group in the E-REGI analysis. Cities in this group are generally sizeable and combine deep investment markets with long term economic strengths related to demographics, technology and urbanisation (DTU), creating the right conditions for growth focused strategies. London and Paris top this group of consistent performers, but balanced E-REGI scores and consistent performance over time are not limited to the top of the ranking. Munich, Frankfurt, Hamburg, Stuttgart and Amsterdam also seem suited for value-add or opportunistic strategies. Düsseldorf, Mannheim-Karlsruhe, Cologne-Bonn, Rotterdam-The Hague, Utrecht, Edinburgh and Leeds are also included in the group but the report says core investment would be more suited given their smaller market size. Affluent is a small group of cities that also support long term strategies but are more difficult to transact-in due to their smaller size and stronger domestic investor base. Consumer related strategies are most attractive in these cities as their strong E-REGI scores are predominantly driven by their wealth and research and development spending components. This group includes Stockholm, Luxemburg, Oslo, Copenhagen-Malmo and Zürich. Movers are more ‘cynical’ market where timing is of the essence for investment in these more cyclical markets. For example Spanish cities have seen moves at both the top and the bottom of the… Continue reading
