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Continued uncertainty over tax still affecting prime central London property
Annual price growth in prime central London fell to 0.9% in November, against the background of prolonged uncertainty surrounding the impact of property tax, according to the latest analysis report. Annual growth was at its lowest level since October 2009, with a monthly decline of 0.3% contributing to the slowdown, says the report from international real estate firm Knight Frank. In the six months to October, when asking prices fell by 10% to 20%, exchanges took an average of 24 weeks but viewing levels in October were the third highest since the start of 2014, it also shows. It points out that the Autumn Statement from Chancellor George Osborne which announce that buy to let investors and those purchasing second homes face paying an extra 3% in stamp duty tax from next April came as tentative signs began to emerge that buyers and sellers are adjusting to previous stamp duty changes introduced in December 2014. ‘After a year under the new system, which raised rates for properties worth more than £1.1 million, a growing number of vendors have begun to set asking prices that reflect the more subdued level of demand and heightened sensitivity to pricing among buyers,’ said Tom Bill, head of London residential research at Knight Frank. He explained that Knight Frank sales data for the six months to October shows properties sold at an incrementally slower pace as the achieved price fell below the asking price. In instances where the achieved price was 80% to 90% of the asking price, where the asking price came down by between 10% and 20%, exchanges took an average of 24 weeks. This compared to nine weeks where the asking price and the achieved price are the same, that is to say where no reduction was necessary. ‘It demonstrates the strength of underlying demand, which is reflected in the fact viewing levels have increased in recent months. Viewings in October were at the third highest level since the start of 2014,’ Bill added. November also saw the release of Knight Frank’s global tax report, which showed London was in the middle of the pack compared to other major global cities in relation to prime property tax and holding costs. ‘The latest stamp duty changes appear unlikely to alter this position materially,’ said Bill. Continue reading
Property price growth in Australian capital cities continues to fall
Home price growth in Australian capital cities fell in November with the slowdown recorded the previous month in Sydney and Melbourne in particular continuing, according to the latest CoreLogic RP Data index. Over the month, Melbourne values fell by 3.5% while Sydney values were down 1.4%. Hobart dwelling values dropped by 2.4%, Darwin values were down 1.3% and down 0.5% in Canberra. Values rose in the remaining three capital cities, with Adelaide showing the highest month on month growth rate at 0.7%, followed by Brisbane with growth of 0.6% and Perth up 0.3%. Overall the combined capitals housing index has seen dwelling values drop by 1.5% over November, taking the rolling quarterly rate of change to -0.5%. Head of research Tim Lawless pointed out that the latest results are now placing downwards pressure on the annual change in dwelling values. The annual rate of growth across the combined capitals index peaked at 11.5% back in April 2014, and has since reduced to 8.7%. Sydney maintained the highest annual growth rate at 12.8%, which is down from a peak rate of annual growth of 18.4% in July earlier this year, while Melbourne’s annual growth rate has reduced from a recent peak of 14.2% to 11.8% over the 12 months ending November this year. The only capital cities where values have declined over the past year are Darwin with a fall of 4.2% and Perth with a fall of 4.1%, where weaker economic conditions and a slowdown in population growth contributed to an early peak in housing market conditions in December last year. The equivalent peak in the cycle for Darwin was May 2014. Since that time, Perth values are down a cumulative 5.9% and Darwin values have fallen by a larger 6.8%. ‘The fact that mortgage rates have risen independently of the cash rate has, in all likelihood, become a contributor to the slowdown in housing market conditions, as well as tighter lending practices evidenced by a recent reduction in lender risk appetite for investment loans and high loan to valuation ratio mortgages. Tighter mortgage servicing criteria across the board and affordability constraints in the Sydney and Melbourne markets are also having an impact on market demand,’ said Lawless. As a consequence of the tighter lending environment for investors, as well as gross rental yields being at near record lows, participation in the housing market from investors has reduced from 54.1% of all new mortgages in May 2015 to 45.4% at the end of September, which is the lowest level since July 2013. The 1.5% decline in capital city dwelling values over the month, coupled with a 0.3% rise in weekly rents, has seen the average gross yield record a subtle improvement over the month. This follows a trend towards lower rental yields which commenced in May 2013, Lawless pointed out. Gross yields remain close to record lows for houses in Melbourne at an average of 3% while Sydney has overtaken Melbourne… Continue reading
Bank of England closely monitoring UK buy to let lending
The Bank of England has confirmed that it is closely monitoring the buy to let sector in the UK following changes announced in the sector in the autumn statement. Its latest Financial Stability Report says that the buy to let sector continues to drive growth in the UK mortgage market and the Bank of England believes it is more interest rate sensitive than the owner occupied sector and warns that strong growth may have implications for financial stability. It means that more buy to let lending controls may therefore be on the cards. That would be another blow to the sector. Landlord wishing to enter the sector and those looking to expand their portfolios already face paying an extra 3% in stamp duty from next April and there have also been changes to tax on earnings. The Financial Stability Report says that since 2010, credit loss rates incurred on buy to let loans in the UK have been around twice those incurred on lending to owner occupiers. It points out that the buy to let sector continues to drive growth in the mortgage market and while greater competition in this sector has not to date led to a widespread deterioration in underwriting standards of UK banks, strong growth in buy to let lending may have implications for financial stability. ‘The FPC remains alert to financial stability risks arising from rapid growth in buy to let mortgage lending and notes the difference in underwriting standards in the owner occupier and buy to let mortgage markets, in particular in the typical interest rates used in affordability stress tests,’ it says. ‘New loans to buy to let investors are often subject to less stringent affordability tests than loans to owner occupiers. According to industry standards, the affordability of a buy to let loan is typically tested by ensuring that the rental income exceeds 125% of loan interest payments at a mortgage interest rate of 5% to 6%. In contrast, and in accordance with the FPC’s June 2014 Recommendation, the affordability of loans to owner occupiers is tested by ensuring that the borrower has sufficient income to cover their mortgage payments at a more stringent mortgage interest rate of around 7%, despite owner occupier mortgage rates tending to be around 0.7% lower,’ the report continues. ‘Assessed against these affordability metrics, buy to let borrowers may be more vulnerable than owner occupiers to an unexpected rise in interest rates or a fall in income. For example, if mortgage rates rose by 300 basis points, the increment by which the FPC recommended the affordability of mortgages to owner occupiers is tested, nearly 60% of buy to let borrowers who took out loans recently would see their rental income no longer covering 125% of their interest payments. By comparison, only 4% of recent owner occupier borrowers would see their mortgage debt costs rise to above 40% of income, a level above which households… Continue reading
