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House and rent prices set to soar in the UK, outlook report suggests
House prices in the UK are set to soar by 50% and rental prices by over a quarter by 20025, according to an outlook report from two key real estate organisations. At the same time the number of households renting is set to rise by 9% while home ownership will fall by 7%, says the analysis from the Association of Residential Letting Agents (ARLA) and the National Association of Estate Agents (NAEA). Other predictions for the next decade included in the report are that buying a house will continue to get further out of reach for many and drastic action is needed to fix what it calls ‘a broken housing market’. With the average house price currently around £280,000, the ARLA and NAEA Housing 2025 report, compiled with CEBR, predicts house prices will reach an average price of £419,000. It’s even worse news for those living in London where house prices are expected to nearly double in the next decade, rising from £515,000 to £931,000. For those planning to enter the rental market in the next few years, rents are predicted to increase by 27% from a current UK average of £134 per week to £171 in 2025. Again, those living in London will be worse off as they’ll need to pay 34% extra in rent per week by 2025, an increase from the current average of £234, up to £314. Lower home ownership rates amongst the working age population and the ageing of the baby boom generation will continue to drive a decline in the proportion of UK households that own their own home, the report also suggest. Currently around 62% of the working population owns their own home and that could fall to 55% in the next decade. The report says that a declining home ownership rate will boost demand for rental properties, and drive house prices up. The Housing 2025 report also predicts the proportion of private renters in the UK will increase from 20% of households in 2015, to nearly 29% by 2025. ‘Buying and renting a home is a giant step, and is out of reach for many. Rent costs are already growing at a rate that people are struggling to keep up with, and they’re due to become even less sustainable over the next decade, particularly when the new landlord tax sets in, which will put off many would be landlords from entering the market,’ said David Cox, ARLA managing director. ‘If we’re to see the property market lifted out of its current state, we need to help the rental market from top down as well as bottom up, ensuring landlords are not penalised for their choice of income, and they can in turn give tenants the best possible price and service they deserve,’ he added. According to Mark Hayward, NAEA managing director, ongoing house price inflation, combined with low wage inflation, tighter lending restrictions and… Continue reading
Prices and sales up in Scotland as market recovers from impact of new land tax
Property in Scotland increased by 1% in October, the biggest monthly climb since April and sales were up 10% year on year, the highest figure for the month for eight years. The latest data from the Your Move index also shows that East Lothian saw biggest boost as new homes developments have pushed prices up 6.3% since September. West Lothian saw the biggest jump in home sales of any area in Scotland, with third quarter sales up 23% on the same period last year. The rise took the average price of home in Scotland to £168,843 and the market over a million pounds is starting to recover with 30 homes in this sector sold between August and October compared to just 14 in the previous three month period. Christine Campbell, Your Move managing director in Scotland, pointed out that average property prices in Scotland increased by £1,600 in October, twice the £761 rise reported in September, as sales of million pound home start again. ‘This growth means that we have seen the largest month on month rise in property values since the introduction of the Land and Buildings Transaction Tax (LBTT) in April this year and the fourth biggest monthly jump since the August 2007, at the height of the housing boom,’ she said. She also pointed out that the seaside town of North Berwick has experienced some of the strongest sales activity over the summer, as buyers hunt for somewhere which has an easy commute to Edinburgh. ‘Crucially, the town has seen three homes sold for over a million pounds and completions on premium new homes which has helped fuel this considerable increase in local prices,’ said Campbell. ‘The top of the market now appears to be recovering after being affected by the steeper LBTT. After the introduction of the new levy in April, home sales in this price bracket ground to a halt, but they are now picking up again,’ she explained. ‘The compromise is that higher end sellers are having to reduce the prices of their homes in order to compensate for the increased LBTT tax rate. In Edinburgh, sales of detached homes in the third quarter of 2015 are up 3% year on year, but average prices for these properties have dropped 2% over the same period,’ she added. The index data also shows that so far in 2015 property sales in Scotland for first time buyers and home movers are increasing three times faster than the rest of the UK. ‘The landmark LBTT switch has made it cheaper to buy homes with the first threshold at £145,000. Some 50% of home sales in Scotland are outside the system,’ said Campbell. ‘With the average cost of a flat in Scotland only £134,000, flat sales have jumped 8% in the third quarter of this year, compared to the same quarter in 2014. Low interest rates have also fuelled the rise as we have seen… Continue reading
Lending across all housing sectors in UK up in October, latest data shows
House purchase lending increased in the UK by 8% in October with all sectors, including first time buyers seeing a rise, according to the latest data from the Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML). A breakdown of the figures show that first time buyers borrowed £4.6 billion for house purchases, up 10% on September and October last year. This totalled 29,900 loans, up 8% month on month and 3% year on year. First time buyer lending grew for the second month in a row, to be the joint highest monthly lending level, alongside July 2015, by volume and by value since August 2007. Competitive mortgage rates mean first time buyers continue to pay low levels of their monthly household income to service the capital and interest rate payments of their mortgage at 18.4% in October. Home movers took out 35,400 loans, up 9% month on month and 3% compared to October 2014. In total, this was £7.1 billion borrowed, up 8% on September and 13% year on year. The October figure was only behind July this year for the highest amount borrowed since 2007. Home movers spent 18.2% of their monthly gross household income to pay capital and interest repayments, slightly more than last month but a decrease compared to September 2014. Home owner remortgage activity also increased, up 6% by volume and 10% by value compared to September. Compared to October 2014, remortgage lending was up 19% by volume and 34% by value. This is the most amount of remortgage loans in a month since January 2009, and the most amount borrowed for remortgage since June 2008. Gross buy to let saw month on month increases up 4% by volume and 3% by value, but more substantial growth year on year to the highest monthly gross buy to let lending level by value and by volume since the CML began tracking buy to let data on a monthly basis in January 2013. Buy to let remortgage is currently driving this with larger year on year growth compared to October 2014. ‘Home owner and buy to let activity have both continued the upward trend seen last month, and the market looks set to finish the year strong, despite taking time to gain momentum after a slow start to 2015,’ said Paul Smee, director general of the CML. ‘With increasing employment and the current absence of inflationary pressures in the UK, conditions for continuing demand in the housing market seem likely going into the new year. How supply will respond to this challenge going forward is a crucial question for 2016,’ he added. The data also shows that house purchase lending in the UK in October saw an increase by volume and by value of mortgages advanced compared to September and October last year. This was the second highest monthly house purchase levels, after July 2015, since 2007. As previously reported, UK gross lending overall in October totalled £21.9 billion, up 9%… Continue reading




