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Economic uncertainty caused by Brexit vote could affect UK property sales temporarily

Rising economic uncertainty over the UK’s membership of the European Union in the run up to a referendum in June could affects sales of property, a new analysis suggests. It will be a lack of clarity that could impact transactions as happened in the run up to the referendum on Scotland remaining a part of the UK in 2014, says the report from international real estate firm Knight Frank but whatever happens the real estate market should be benign. It explains that both transaction volumes and development starts have seen healthy growth since David Cameron’s 2013 referendum pledge, and again following the Conservative Party victory in May last year. ‘Despite the resilience of the market to date, experience from the 2014 Scottish Referendum shows that we ought to expect a slowdown in housing market activity as we get closer to the poll date. The extent of this slowdown is, in reality, guesswork at the current time,’ the report state. ‘One issue we have seen develop in recent weeks is the weakening of the pound. This trend has potential implications for the central London market, where foreign home buyers are more active. If anything the weakening of the pound could provide a short-term boost to demand in the Capital,’ it adds. The analysis explains that there is no doubt that a clear ‘remain’ vote would remove immediate economic uncertainty and market activity might be expected to recover any lost ground relatively rapidly, this was certainly the experience in Scotland following their referendum. However, the prevailing assumption is that a ‘leave’ vote would necessarily require a period of negotiation to settle the UK’s new relationship with the EU. ‘During this period it would be fair to assume that uncertainty would continue to influence investment decisions for businesses and individuals, particularly if the question of Scottish independence is raised again,’ the report points out. ‘While the speed and terms on which this new settlement is made remain unclear, one factor suggests there will be some urgency in the process. With the Irish economy so closely linked with the UK’s the EU will be under pressure to ensure trade for Ireland is maintained. The UK’s bargaining position may also be bolstered by pressure from other organisations and countries like China, with whom the country has strengthening trade ties,’ it adds. But it concludes that it is safe to assume the impact on the UK housing market should be relatively benign whatever the outcome. ‘The mainstream UK housing market is primarily driven by domestic dynamics. An exit from the EU would not affect the demand/supply imbalance which is a key feature underpinning current housing market trends,’ the report says. ‘This imbalance is most noticeable in London and the South-East, where decades of undersupply contribute to the on-going need for a considerable uptick in construction activity,’ it adds. Continue reading

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Revamped parliamentary group to make recommendations on UK housing

The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) is to take a lead role in supporting a new All-Party Parliamentary Group (APPG) for Housing and Planning to address the national housing emergency in the UK. The APPG for Housing and Planning, previously chaired by MP Tim Yeo, will now be chaired by James Cartlidge, Conservative MP for South Suffolk, and tasked with recommending wide ranging, innovative solutions to reshape the housing market. It will also look at ways of increasing the housing stock for both rental and private ownership, and speeding up building of sustainable housing in the UK, which now faces an annual shortfall of 130,000 homes. The APPG will consist of MPs from a range of urban and rural constituencies. RICS, which comprises over 90,000 professionals in the UK working across the construction, land and property markets, will support the group as Secretariat. ‘Housing is increasingly becoming one of the most critical policy challenges facing local and national government, and with a Housing Bill pending, it is likely to become more political and controversial,’ said Cartlidge. ‘In this context, a cross party Parliamentary group focused objectively on the national policy challenge of housing offers a vehicle for taking the debate forward in a way that is both positive and constructive,’ he explained. ‘Having spent my working life in the shared ownership housing sector, I am acutely aware of the challenges facing first time buyers, particularly in London. Equally, as a rural MP, I recognise the need for development to be sustainable. Ultimately, there are a whole raft of complex issues in housing and planning today but I hope that our APPG can make a real contribution to the debate,’ he added. RICS chief executive Sean Tompkins pointed out that in the region of 245,000 homes need to be built every year to address the UK's housing crisis. ‘The solutions we need must be innovative and wide ranging, but also grounded within a political framework which allows them to be implemented,’ he said. ‘A coherent housing strategy is also central to many other key issues for the country. For example, a decent roof over your head can enhance your health, academic achievement, job success and social inclusion,’ he added. He also pointed out that the organisation’s Royal Charter and public interest mandate makes it well placed to provide the framework for the constructive debates and broad conversations that must happen across the political spheres in order to develop the solutions. ‘Our expertise, research and market data will all be made available to the Group. The RICS believes there are solutions to be found and we look forward to assisting this new APPG with its valuable agenda,’ Tompkins concluded. Originally formed under the last Parliament, the APPG for Housing and Planning will look to deliver its first set of recommendations later this year. Continue reading

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Over a third of UK self-employed think they can’t get a mortgage

Some 38% of self-employed people in the UK interested in taking out a mortgage are concerned they’ll never get one because they work independently, new research has found. On top of this 63% of microbusiness owners think the self-employed have to jump through more hoops than traditional employees, with it being especially difficult for those new to freelancing. And 61% think mortgage advisors do not understand their financial situation while 45% think mortgage providers don’t want them as customers, according to the research carried out by IPSE, the Association of Independent Professionals and the Self Employed. The research also found that 61% believe it’s more difficult to supply the financial information required when applying for a mortgage if you’re new to independent working To ensure more self-employed people can access a mortgage, IPSE is calling for mortgage advisors to be given better advice on independent working and a Government review into lending to independent professionals. ‘Getting a mortgage is a major concern for the self-employed, despite 4.5 million people choosing to work independently in the UK. The whole culture around mortgage lending to the self-employed needs to be changed to accommodate the modern way of working,’ said Chris Bryce, chief executive of IPSE. “It’s crucial that better advice is given to mortgage advisors to provide them with a better understanding of independent working to ensure the self-employed are treated fairly. A dedicated member of staff is another way to achieve this,’ he pointed out. ‘The Conservative Party made a commitment to review mortgages for the self-employed in its business manifesto and we look forward to working with the new Government on this important area,’ he added. According to Paul Winter, chief executive of the Ipswich Building Society, too many credit-worthy borrowers with unusual circumstances are overlooked by mainstream mortgage lenders. ‘Our view is that mortgage misfits, including the self-employed, freelancers and contractors, should have the same level of choice and access to the mortgage market as any other group,’ he said. IPSE has issues some top tips for the self-employed seeking a mortgage. Top is ensuring that you have proof of income as self-certifying your income is a thing of the past and you now need to show you earn the money you say you do. If you have a company, this can be company accounts, otherwise other proof may be needed such as paid invoices, or even pay slips from employed work in a similar field over the last two years. Applicants also need to show that they will continue to get work and this can be done by showing you have had contracts renewed in the past or showing you have worked lined up. If you do not you may need to show you can meet mortgage payments with saving for at least a couple of months. … Continue reading

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