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Signs that currency volatility could boost UK market, especially in London
Currency volatility sparked by the decision in the UK to leave the European Union could create a scenario where overseas investors make major profits by continuing to invest and store their wealth in prime property in London, it is suggested. Market conditions are ripe for opportunistic foreign investors, which could create a welcome increase in the level of sales enquiries received by London developers and give a lift to the British property sector, according to a report from Arcadis. Since the result of the EU referendum was announced, sterling has fallen relative to the euro and the US dollar with further falls forecast before the end of the year. The report suggests that buyers from Europe, Asia, and the Middle East are now well placed to secure bargains in the London prime housing market by exploiting both a softening of property values and a favourable currency situation. Furthermore, with some Banks forecasting a recovery of sterling during 2017 and agents predicting some recovery of prime London house prices during 2018, those investing £2 million now may see their investments rise by as much as £250,000 in value, according to Mark Cleverly, head of commercial development at Arcadis. Although the appetite for opportunistic investment will depend on forecasts of further depreciation of sterling in the short term, the London prime market could soon see another influx of foreign investment. This would provide a timely boost for the UK construction sector in the long term, particularly if increased competitiveness is also matched by government funding for infrastructure, helping to underpin confidence in the new build sector. ‘The market volatility we’ve seen as a result of the Brexit vote is, perhaps ironically, going to re-open the luxury property market to overseas investors, as several of our clients have already reported a bounce in enquiries following the referendum. This influx of investment coming into the UK could boost British construction again in the future as well as giving shot in the arm to the Treasury through increasing stamp duty receipts,’ Cleverly explained. ‘For a market that, in some areas, has been stuttering for some time due to ongoing stamp duty hikes taking the steam out of buyer demand, the buying opportunity presented by recent events could be a big plus. More buyers means a more buoyant market which can only be good news for the industry,’ he added. Already there has been a surge in interest from overseas buyers, according to Benoit Properties International due to the plunge in the value of sterling. The firm says buyers could make a saving of around 12%. Matthew Lavin of Benoit Properties International said there has been a surge in interest in buy to let property from investors in the Middle East, Hong Kong and other countries with currencies pegged to the dollar. Within days of the referendum result the firm sold… Continue reading
Residential sales in Hong Kong up 45% month on month, prices down
Residential sales in Hong Kong increased by 45% month on month in March from their lowest level in 25 years, reaching 17,106, according to the latest data from the Land Registry. The rise was attributable to a number of primary project launches after Chinese New Year and a reviving resales market, with some flat owners willing to cut prices, says the latest market analysis from international real estate firm Knight Frank. As a result, prices fell further, with official figures showing that home prices had decreased for five consecutive months, for a cumulative decline of 11%. But the market continued to polarise, with the luxury sector remaining relatively resilient, it explains. Reported landmark deals of the month included an en-bloc transaction at South Bay Close in Repulse Bay for HK$668 million, or about HK$30,000 per square foot and a unit in Cluny Park in Mid-Levels West, which sold for over HK$53,000 per square foot, the highest price in the development. With potential buyers expecting increasing supply and a further drop in home prices, residential sales are expected to fall to around 50,000 units this year. ‘Although luxury home prices overall are expected to drop 5% this year, prices of super luxury houses and apartments should remain firm. Mass market prices could drop up to 10% in 2016,’ the report says. In the prime office market a lack of available space continued to limit Grade A leasing activity, the report also shows. To avoid high rents in Central, some firms with a long presence in the area relocated to non-core areas as they became increasingly cost conscious, the report explains. It also points out that high office rents in Central have been supported by a lack of supply rather than strong demand as office leasing demand from both domestic and overseas firms has weakened in recent months. The Kowloon Grade A office leasing market saw a number of relocation deals involving insurance sourcing companies in March. Office rents in Kowloon East, however, have been under increasing pressure from the increasing supply coming on line, the report says. ‘Despite the economic uncertainties in Hong Kong and the mainland, office rents in decentralised areas could drop 5% in 2016 due to abundant supply in the pipeline. This polarisation trend is expected to continue until the new supply is absorbed and the market regains balance,’ the report adds. It also says that notable declines in retail sales and visitor arrivals continued to put pressure on retail property rents and adds that the retail property landscape will continue to evolve to cope with the downturn. Continue reading
A year of above average leasing predicted for central London office market
The central London office market is set to experience another year of above average leasing and investment activity in 2016, according to a new report. However, some 22 million square feet of space could be needed in the next five years, says the analysis from international real estate advisor Savills. Low vacancy rates will help prime rents to climb, although a lack of new buildings capable of demanding the highest rents is likely to lead to topmost rents stabilising over the course of the year, the report explains. Whilst the gap between average prime City and West End rents continues to widen at £74.15 per square feet and £106.98 per square feet respectively, elsewhere there has been a marked convergence of rents on average Grade A/B office accommodation across Central London. This is likely to mean less movement of occupiers from West to East London or from core to fringe locations. Longer term, Savills predicts that population and economic growth, combined with lease expiries and building obsolescence, could lead to 22 million square feet of additional space being required in London over the next five years. Part of this demand will be serviced by four consecutive years of above average levels of completions in both the City and West End markets, although 21% of space in the City has been pre-let, and 15% in the West End. In the investment market, non-domestic investors attracted by London office’s relative stability and strong comparative returns will continue to drive demand, with 2016 set to be above average in terms of investment volumes. Despite stock market volatility and concerns over a slowdown in the Chinese economy those international investors who have been canvassed continue to identity London as a core focus for their future direct investment activity, with Savills predicting further capital flows from the Middle East, China and North America. Notwithstanding the continued appetite from overseas, Savills expects the market to consolidate around an appetite for core plus and value-add opportunities and therefore a continued sharpening of prime yields, currently at 3% in the City and 4% in the West End, is unlikely to continue. Volumes may well fall as the market becomes more hesitant in the lead up to the outcome of a Brexit referendum. ‘We predict that the Central London office markets will see above average take-up, rental growth and investment volumes in 2016, but these increases will not be as notable as they have been in recent years,’ said Mat Oakley, head of commercial research at Savills. ‘We don’t foresee that an increase in the Bank of England’s base rate will have an impact on yields whilst rents continue to rise. As with the investment market, the leasing market may slow due to external factors such as further ripples from China’s slowdown and a drop in business confidence in anticipation of a Brexit referendum,’ he added. Continue reading
